Posted 7:40 PM by Doug

Giants Sign Alou

When I first saw that headline, I had to check the story to see if the Giants signed Moises Alou or his uncle Matty Alou. ESPN Deportes (since when do they break news?) reports that 38 year-old Moises Alou has agreed to terms with the Giants on a 2 year contract worth $13.6MM. The NY Times and AP are also reporting the signing. I'm too upset to type coherent sentences (I'm mainly pissed because our company holiday for Dec 23rd was rescinded late this afternoon, but I'm also displeased by the Giants recent moves), so I'll just post some unorganized stats and observations and you kids can go to town with it in the comments.

* Alou's Home/Road splits from 2002-2004:

Home: .304/.381/.559
Road: .264/.327/.417

* Alou 38
Bonds 40
Grissom 38
Snow 37
Durham 33
Vizquel 38
Alfonzo 31
Matheny 34

* From a respected Cubs fan on some message board somewhere:

2 years/$13.6 M for Alou?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

I'm going out on a limb and saying he won't put up a 1.000 OPS next year in Pac Bell. If he hits .260/.320/.430 with 20 HRs, the Giants should consider themselves lucky.

And fans, here are some useful phrases you can commit to heart before next season:

"Where was he going?!"
"Please hit the cutoff man once before I die."
"STFU and stop barking, that was clearly a strike."
"That throw was nowhere close."
"#### Alou, doubled off again. Do you think he knows there are base coaches, or is it that he just doesn't care?"
"How did he not catch that?"

Enjoy.

* Alou's 2005 ZiPS projection: .271/.333/.453 with 21 HRs. Ok that isn't *that* bad, but is it really much of an upgrade over Tucker/Mohr? Last season Giants RFers had a collective OPS of .757. Alou projects to have an OPS of .786. Once you factor in Alou's shoddy defense...yikes, did we upgrade RF at all?

* With the Giants elderly outfield, it would be a good idea to get a good, cheap 4th/5th OF who can play all 3 OF positions and spell Bonds, Moises, and Grissom when they need rest. Anybody know where we get ourselves a player like that?

I yield the floor.

Posted 8:42 AM by Doug

I Have a Question

What the hell is going on? It's probably a bad sign when the GM of your team makes a move that is so bewildering that you need to ask as many people as possible what the motivations were behind said move. So, someone help me out here.

I'm at a loss. Let's see, Dustan Mohr hit .274/.394/.437 last season in limited playing time. He is arbitration eligible for the first time, so he probably wouldn't cost more than 800k or thereabouts. Mohr is cheap, he's young (by Giants standards, he may as well be wearing diapers), he is cheap too, he's well liked by his teammates and Giants fans, he can play all three OF positions, and he won't cost very much. So, I repeat -- what the hell is going on? Possible explanations:

1) Non-tendering Mohr was part of some bizarro negotiating formality that I don't understand and the Giants will still attempt to re-sign Mohr.

2) This is part of the "give Pedro Feliz as many ABs as possible" plan. The front office has repeated this line ad nausea and the Giants plan to use Feliz as the 4th OF. I was just hoping that Feliz' additional ABs wouldn't come at the expense of someone who is actually good.

3) "Batting third in Right Field, Kevin Bass!"

4) A "big" free agent OF signing/trade is around the corner and there was just no room in the OF for Mohr. Of course, "big" is a subjective term which means Drew, Mags, Beltran, Kearns, or Huff to most Giants fans. But to Magowan and Sabean, "big" could be front officespeak for Jeromy Burnitz. Or BJ Surhoff. Or maybe both of them.

5) The Giants lost an arbitration case with DP Pierzynski last spring, and they refuse to go to an arbitration hearing with anyone under any circumstances. The Giants and Mohr were too far apart and the Giants didn't want to risk going to a hearing. Ok, this may be a little far-fetched, as Hank Schulman reported that money was not the deciding issue.

6) The Giants are going to give on of their AAAA outfielders, Ellison/Torcato/Linden, a shot to make the roster as the 4th or 5th outfielder. Brian Sabean giving a young position player a chance to prove themselves? I'll have to see this to believe it.

7) Sabean's moves aren't supposed to make sense to us. Maybe the decision to non-tender Mohr shouldn't come as a surprise after all. Given the option between a young position player (again, Mohr is young by Giants standards) and a similar, older player who costs twice as much, Sabean will always chose the older, more expensive guy. Whether it's Matheny/Torrealba, Grissom/Mohr, Vizcaino/Aurilia or whatever, Sabean prefers older players. This strategy doesn't make sense to us, but, for whatever reason, this strategy makes perfect sense to Sabean.

But, even that doesn't explain everything. The Giants will likely carry 5 outfielders, meaning there would've been room for Grissom and Mohr on the roster.

8) Brian Sabean is the Mole.

For the record, I'm voting for option #7. I don't understand the move, because I'm not supposed to understand it. Add your own explanations to the comments.

Posted 9:25 PM by Doug

Drowning in a Poole of Misery

Above my cubicle at work, I posted a sign which read "5 days and counting." Five days, of course, being the length of time since the Giants front office did something worthy of my ridicule.

Sabean has really outdone himself this time. The Giants were apparently so satisfied with Jason Christiansen's 67 IP, 4.84 ERA, and 1.5 wins above replacement level over the last three years, that they rewarded him with a one year contract worth $1.15MM and a player option for 2006. What, was Eric Gunderson unavailable?

At least with the Matheny signing, Sabean could trot out the intangibles and chemistry line of BS to attempt to justify that contract, but Christiansen caused a stir in the clubhouse last year when he posted a sign above his locker complaining that he hadn't pitched in x number of days.

Also, JC's career has been plagued by shoulder injuries (and two shoulder surgeries) and other various ailments.

So what exactly is the reasoning behind signing an injury prone, 35 year-old reliever who is barely above replacement level? Oh yeah, Christiansen is *gasp* left-handed! But the Giants already have a decent LOOGY in Scott Eyre. They've also signed Jeff Fasero and Armando Almanza to minor league contracts, and Wayne Franklin is still on the 40 man roster. All three of those guys could do JC's job, which, apparently is to be summoned from the bullpen to walk opposing left-handed hitters, for a fraction of the cost.

In the grand scheme of things, I'm not too upset about this because wasting a million bucks on an ineffective reliever isn't the end of the world. But, once again, the Giants have overpaid for a mediocre player who doesn't fill a need.

Posted 9:45 AM by Doug

I Hate Penalty Kicks

That is all.

Oh, and this:

Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck

Update 12:35: Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck

Well, at Least the Giants Didn't Do Anything Stupid Yesterday

No, wait. They did. The Giants have reportedly agreed to terms with free agent catcher Mike Matheny on a three year contract worth about $9 million. Ugh.

On the brightside, Matheny is a fine defensive player, and...well, that's it. That's the brightside.

On the downside...where should I start? The Giants overpaid for a mediocre player. Matheny is a career .239/.293/.336 hitter. Matheny is 34 years old, bringing the average age of the starting 8 up to 35.6(!). By signing another catcher, the Giants lost some leverage in their quest to trade AJ. And the Giants have given up yet another draft pick. Does that about cover it?

Update 2:00: Per Rosenthal, Matheny's contract is actually $10.5MM over three years, with an option for a fourth year.

Posted 1:18 AM by Doug

Ole! Ole! Ole! Ole!

Gauchos! Gauchos!

UCSB defeated Duke in tonight's National Semifinal by a score of 5-0. The #1 ranked Gauchos will face defending National Champion and perenial powerhouse Indiana in the National Championship this Sunday at 1:00 at the Home Despot Center in Carson, CA. The game will be televised live on ESPN2.

The Gauchos dominating, physical play was too much for the University of New Jersey at Durham Duke to handle. The game was so one sided that many of the Santa Barbara partisans chanted "Let them score! Let them score!" toward the end of the game.

There were over 10,000 fans in attendance tonight, the vast majority of whom were rooting for UCSB. There were a handful of Dookies on hand, and of course, a few of them were right next to me. For some reason they vacated our section in the second half. I couldn't imagine why. Anyway, to all of the UCSB fans/students/alumni reading this -- buy your tickets for Sunday's National Championship. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity. Hmmm...maybe if I type in all caps that will help.

BUY YOUR TICKETS FOR SUNDAY'S GAME!

One last time, for old time's sake:

Ole! Ole! Ole! Ole!
Gauchos! Gauchos!

Editor's Note: I'm kinda drunk right now.

Posted 1:40 PM by Doug

Old Gauchos Never Die, They Just Get Faded

This is horribly, horribly off topic, but hey, it's my blog, so I can post about whatever I want. Congratulations to the #1 ranked UCSB men's soccer team for defeating Virginia Commonwealth University last Saturday to advance to the Final Four.

As luck would have it, the 2004 College Cup is being played at the Home Depot Center in nearby Carson, CA. Party at Doug's House! UCSB will play Duke in the second National Semifinal this Friday night at approximately 7:30 PM. If UCSB wins on Friday night, they'll play the winner of Maryland/Indiana on Sunday at 1:00PM for the National Championship.

We had a great crowd in Santa Barbara this past weekend (over 11,000 which made the game the most attended non-Final Four playoff game evah) and we're hoping to turn Friday night's game (and hopefully Sunday afternoon's game too) into defacto home games for UCSB.

Calling all UCSB students/fans/alumni - buy your fucking tickets now! I said, Go now! Some info on how to sit with the cool kids can be found here.

If we win on Sunday, we may very well go General Sherman on the city of Carson and burn it to the ground. Of course, since this is Carson we're talking about, it may be tough to tell the difference.

All together now:

Ole! Ole! Ole! Ole!
Gauchos! Gauchos!

I'm sure there are UCSB students/fans/alumni reading this, so drop your positive Gaucho mojo into the comments section.

Actual Giants-related Content

Anything of interest happen in the last week? Well, the latest news on the Steve Finley front has the Finley courtship playing out like an episode of Desperate Housewives. Sabean is the obsessive romantic who has been relentlessly stalking Finley for years. Mike Ilitch is the wealthy diva who is trying to buy Finley's heart with a 2-year/$18 million dollar contract. Peter Gammons is the next door neighbor gossip queen who reports the goings on to his knitting circle.

The Angels are interested in sleeping with signing Finley too, as Angels owner (and advertising guru) Arte Moreno has dreams of plastering Steve Finley's face on dry cleaning bags.

The narrator of the episode will be none other than yours truly, because if Sabean outbids the Tigers to sign Finley, I may end up shooting myself.

Posted 10:28 PM by Doug

A Few More Notes on Benitez

* The dollar breakdown of the contract is as follows (including signing bonus):

2005: $4.1MM
2006: $6.6MM
2007: $7.6MM
2008: $1.6MM
2009: $1.6MM

Benitez is not actually under contract to pitch for the Giants in 2008 and 2009, but he will be paid a portion of his signing bonus in each of those years. Note that about half of his contract will be paid out AB (After Barry) in 2007-2009.

Like the Omar Vizquel contract, Benitez' 2005 salary is a bargain. $4MM for the best relief pitcher on the market? I'll take it.

* My initial reaction was that an average salary of $7MM for Benitez was a shade more than he should command on the open market. But I was using the contracts signed in the last couple of years (the market correction years) as a baseline. It's still too early in the off season to declare that the market correction of the last couple of years is over, but judging by some of the contracts handed out this winter such as 4 years/$16MM for Christian Guzman, $8.2MM for two years for Paul Wilson, (wait two years and $8.2 million and a $5.15 option for Paul Wilson? WTF? That's like paying $40 for an egg beater at Target. Maybe the Reds really are dumb enough to do a Feliz-and-prospects for Kearns swap), it looks like the days of late 90s excess are here again. I wonder if I can get my cushy dotcom job back.

Let's wait and see the dollar amounts and years of some of the free agent signings to see how the market plays out, but it could very well be that in the new new economy Benitez will be worth $7MM a year on the open market.

* Benitez was a Type A free agent, meaning that the Giants have now lost their first two picks in the June 2005 draft. I've grown tired of complaining about purposely forfeiting high draft picks, so I won't bother going through the motions again. I'll just add that I'm holding out hope that the Giants will offer arbitration to Dustin Hermanson. That way they can get a couple of picks for him if he signs elsewhere. If he accepts arbitration and returns to the Giants (which is unlikely given his stated preference for either starting or being a closer), he'd be a welcome addition as a set-up man and spot starter.

* Brian Sabean did a quick interview on KNBR this afternoon (click on Sabean's name to listen).

Of note, Sabean mentioned that the Giants are looking to have as strong of a team as possible at the beginning of the year so they won't have to make adjustments in the middle of the year. This is a different strategy than years past when the Giants would re-evaluate their needs in late July and make a deadline deal trade to bolster the team. Said strategy didn't work out last year when a number of forces (the large number of buyers at the July 31st bazaar and the Giants unwillingness to deal Matt Cain and Merkin Valdez chief among them) conspired to foist Ricky Ledee onto the team. Sabean is learning from his mistakes. I like it...

...On Magglio Ordonez, Sabean says he is "not something that we would venture," but the Giants are still looking at outfielders. Sabes said that with guys like Steve Finley it's "moving real slow." He believes the market for outfielders will take a while shake out...

...Sabean repeated the line that he needs to find ABs for Pedro Feliz. Hey, I hear the Reds need a 3B, do you think we could take one of their corner outfielders off their hands. (If I repeat this enough, maybe it will actually come true).

* After digesting all of the information out there, I pretty much like the Benitez signing. Again, the contract is a shade more than I would've given him, but maybe my sense of the market is out of whack. Also, if nothing else, at least the Giants may be overpaying for someone who is actually good. One of my biggest Sabes pet peeves is his habit of overspending for interchangable mediocrities like Jason Christiansen and Michael Tucker. Armando Benitez is most definitely not a mediocrity. Now, let's just hope that Benitez won't have any memorable meltdowns for the Giants.

Posted 10:50 AM by Doug

Behold, the Proven Closer!

There's an old saying on Wall Street that says that investors put their money into investments that they should've bought last year. The Giants believed that not having a Proven Closer® on the 2004 roster was the main reason that they missed the playoffs last season.

As was first reported here (that thread was pointed out to me last week, but I chose not to believe it), the Giants have signed Armando Benitez to a 3 year contract worth $21 million.

Now, first things first, is Armando Benitez a good reliever? Yes, Benitez is coming off a tremendous season with the Marlins where he posted these eye-popping stats: 1.29 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, .475 OPSA, and an ERA+ of 317(!). Hell, his career numbers ain't too shabby either: 2.85 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, ERA+ of 152, although I am concerned about his declining strikeout rate.

While it is very clear that Benitez is an excellent reliever, I don't think it's necessarily a wise move for a team with a mid level payroll to commit $7 million dollars a year to someone who will throw about 5% of the team's innings next season. Ideally, the Giants early agressiveness in the free agent market this off season is a sign that they're going to increase their self-imposed payroll cap to a more reasonable number. The lunatic fringe can only hope.

But, because Benitez is such an elite reliever, I'm liking the deal with reservations. I'll look past the fact that Benitez is eating a bigger slice of the payroll pie than he should, if it means that a short-sighted cost cutting move is not on the way (other than throwing away yet another high draft pick, that is).

One other thing - Benitez has a reputation of having some pretty high profile meltdowns. This reputation isn't necessarily fair, but hey, ESPN did a top 10 list of the most memorable Benitez meltdowns in history (I love their use of the phrase "top 10," because it implies that there were dozens of Mando meltdowns to choose from, but these 10 are the most memorable of them all).

So I reserve the right to retroactively dislike this deal if October comes around and Benitez is laying on the pitching mound, smoke billowing from the caboose, as Shawn Green circles the bases, leaving Giants fans longing for the days of Felix Rodriguez.

Posted 10:40 PM by Doug

The Vizquel Postmortem

As the dust settles from the Omar Vizquel signing, I'm starting to like the deal a tiny bit more than I first did. While the deal still gets a thumbs down from me, the one thing that I do like about it is that Vizquel will probably be worth the $2.5MM that he'll earn next year. Vizquel's ZiPS projection for 2005 is .276/.335/.371, with 14 steals.

If Vizquel is platooned properly, he could probably beat that projection. His 3 year splits:

vs LHP: .262/.311/.371
vs RHP: .282/.356/.400

When the soon to be 38 year-old does need to rest, he should sit in favor of Deivi against some left-handed starters.

On the negative side, Vizquel's 2006 and 2007 guaranteed salary will probably be not be commensurate with his performance. This aspect of the deal has been beaten to death, so I won't talk about it any further. Instead, I'll focus the remainder of this post on one aspect of the signing that has been largely ignored by the mainstream sports media -- the Giants lost their first round draft pick (again!).

Responding to a reader's question about the wisdom of shitcanning late first-round picks, Jim Callis of Baseball America sums things up perfectly (emphasis added):

"Late first-rounders aren't cheap, that's for sure. The last 10 picks in the first round of the 2004 draft signed for an average bonus of $1,227,500. Teams do have finite budgets, and it's certainly easier and faster to find a productive big leaguer for that amount via the free-agent market than it is via the draft.

But looking at it from a different perspective, teams aren't going to sign many star-quality big leaguers as free agents for a contract in the very low seven figures. If they somehow do, they won't be able to control his major league rights for six years. The way to pull those feats off for that money is to take your chances in the draft.

The Giants haven't drafted well recently. Their most productive pick in the last five years has been 1999 supplemental first-rounder Jerome Williams. Previous to Williams they hadn't had much luck since taking Russ Ortiz (fourth round) and Joe Nathan (sixth) in 1995.

But San Francisco has excelled in turning its prospects, regardless of how well they would turn out, into proven major leaguers. That's a major reason the Giants have finished first or second in the National League West for eight years running. Several of the club's late first-round picks have proven very useful to that end.

Righthander Joe Fontenot (No. 16 overall, 1995) was the key player in the Robb Nen deal with the Marlins. Nate Bump (No. 25, 1999) also went to Florida, along with fellow righty Jason Grilli (No. 4 in 1997), for Livan Hernandez. Another righty, Kurt Ainsworth (No. 24, 1999), helped bring Sidney Ponson from the Orioles for the stretch drive in 2003. Righthander Boof Bonser (No. 21, 2000) was part of the A.J. Pierzynski deal with the Twins.

Righty Brad Hennessey (No. 21, 2001) and lefty Noah Lowry (No. 30, 2001) were part of San Francisco's rotation in September. Righty Matt Cain (No. 25, 2002) is clearly the Giants' top prospect and could help them as soon as next year. Righty David Aardsma (No. 22, 2003) made the Opening Day roster in 2004 and should provide bullpen help in 2005.

Though none of the traded first-rounders has accomplished much since leaving San Francisco, the Giants have gotten a lot of production out of them. By the end of 2006, their rotation could consist of Jason Schmidt and four late first-round or supplemental first-round choices. With that kind of track record, it makes no sense to just throw first-round picks away.

San Francisco signed Michael Tucker before the deadline to offer arbitration last year—if teams don't offer arbitration, they don't get compensation—so the Royals would make that offer after the fact and spare the Giants of having to spend on a first-round pick in 2004. I haven't seen any definitive statements that they signed Vizquel early to accomplish the same purpose, though that may have been part of their intent. But there was enough competition for Vizquel's services that it's also possible that San Francisco moved quickly to avoid losing him to another club."

Other Notes from the Blogosphere

1) Everyone should read The Fourth Outfielder (hat tip to Dodger Thoughts for the link) and Fogball for some stat intensive analysis on the Vizquel signing.

2) Check out the new (by "new," I mean new to me) Giants blogs - On the Waterfront and Absent-minded Ramblings.

3) Omar Vizquel posted a very gracious farewell letter to Indians fans on his web site; a classy move on his part.

Update 11/18: Studes has a must read article on Brian Sabean and the Vizquel signing over at The Hardball Times (link via Baseball Primer).

"Give Brian Sabean a little credit. He has a feel for this phenomenon, and he's taken advantage of it. In a crazy way, this is the "Moneyball" philosophy. Approach the market in a different manner, and take advantage of values that others don't recognize. Billy Beane and Paul DePodesta valued OBP before others did; Brian Sabean values really old guys."

Read the whole thing.

Posted 11:35 AM by Doug

#7

Congrats to Barry Bonds for winning his fourth consecutive and seventh overall MVP award. The vote total was closer than it should have been, but Bonds received 24 of the 32 first place votes.

Also of note - this marks the fifth consecutive NL MVP award for a member of the Giants.

Posted 2:36 PM by Doug

Sabean's Guide to Every Giants Season Ever

In the winter, the Giants make a questionable free agent signing. They overpay for a declining player on the wrong side of 30. The Lunatic Fringe goes nuts. The signing kind of ends up working out anyway. Powered by Barry Bonds, the Giants win 90 some odd games and either narrowly miss making the playoffs or get eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. Larry Baer declares the season to be a success because the team was "competitive" and the Giants have only played x number of meaningless games in the last few seasons. The Giants raise ticket prices and announce that they're too poor to sign any impact free agents.

True to form, the Giants started the winter with a questionable signing when they gave Omar Vizquel a three year $12.25 million contract. Signing Omar Vizquel isn't a bad move, per se. But giving a 37 year-old three years and $12.25 million while forfeiting a first round draft pick in the process is a bad move.

I'm probably not as upset over this signing as I should be. Vizquel will probably play better than most of us expect (for next year at least) and the Giants will probably have an exciting, 90 win season in 2005.

Next up -- the Giants sign Moises Alou and Troy Percival and call it an off season.

***

Omar Vizquel played for the Indians teams of the mid to late 90s that were annual contenders, but could never quite win it all. At the end of each disappointing season, Vizquel would return to his native Venezuela to contemplate what went wrong.

Welcome to the San Francisco Giants, Omar. Something tells me that you'll be making that trip each of the next three years.

Posted 8:05 PM by Doug

Rumors, Rumors, Rumors

The hot stove is in full swing as the Winter GM Meetings are underway. Here are the players involved in Giants rumors:

* AJ Pierzynski

The conventional wisdom espoused by the Bay Area fishwrapocrary is that AJ is on the trading block and his days with the Giants are numbered. I disagree. The Giants braintrust emphasizes old school stats like batting average and RBI. By these conventional metrics, AJ's year with Giants was a success -- .272 average and 77 RBI.

Moreover, the Giants adhere to the advice of their scouts. Obviously, I have no way of knowing what said scouts think, but something tells me that they do not see Yorvit Torrealba as an everyday player. Why would Sabes acquire a young catcher entering his prime in the first place if they thought Yorvit would be ready to be an everyday player in 2005? I think the Giants want AJ to come back. The only potential sticking point is $$$.

* Steve Finley

In the winter of 1998 Sabean tried to sign Steve Finley. In the winter of 2002 Sabean tried to sign Steve Finley. In the summer of 2004, Sabean tried to trade for Steve Finley. Obsessive much, Sabes?

Well, Steve Finley is once again on the market, and, not surprisingly, the Giants are apparently trying to sign him.

While a possible Giants outfield of Bonds/Finley/Grissom would be subject to any number of lame geritol/social security jokes, I wouldn't mind a Finley signing. Yes, he's a gazillion years old, but he still plays like he's much younger. Finley's OPS+ in each of the last three years:

2004: 110
2003: 113
2002: 120

Declining? Slightly, but those are still solid offensive numbers for a CF.

Plus, if the Giants sign Finley before the arbitration deadline, they could burden the arch rival Dodgers with one of those bothersome first round draft picks. Take that, DePo!

* Magglio Ordonez

Ken Rosenthal reports that the Giants could be among the teams in the Magglio Sweepstakes. The feeling is that Ordonez' injury questions will bring down his asking price so that teams like the Giants will be able to afford him. Before I go any further, I want to point out that last season Rosenthal speculated that the Giants could land Richie Sexson or Alfonso Soriano. Most outside observers look at the Giants roster and conclude that the Giants are searching for a slugger to hit behind Bonds. But the Giants themselves have given no indication that they are seeking a power hitter to hit behind Bonds. The official propaganda minister of sfgiants.com has hinted that the team isn't likely to acquire a slugger to hit behind Bonds.

I would be very surprised if the Giants landed Mags.

* Nomah

Let's just say that you're a free agent who is coming off a down year. Questions about your health and your declining defensive skills abound, pressing your value on the free agent market downward. You might want to seek a one or two year deal to re-establish yourself and then try to strike it big after proving that you haven't lost it. Hey Nomar, wanna hit behind Barry?

This is the only scenario in which I would favor a Nomar signing - a short term/make good deal for a reasonable amount of money. If Arte Moreno swoops in and offers Garciaparra a 4 year/50 million dollar contract, then forget it. But if the price is right, I'd go for Nomah.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Giants may make an offer to Nomar. In addition to the theory that his asking price may be depressed, Nomar seems like just the kind of player Sabean likes. He swings at everything, he never walks, and he's a good contact hitter. Plus, he's a good character guy.

Sabes could even try to convince Magowan to spend some of the mysterious "Maddux money" on a name free agent signing like Nomar. We're not going to get an impact player this off season, but maybe we'll get a declining former star.

* Armando Benitez

Once you get past all of the hatred that Mets fans harbor toward this man, you realize that Armando Benitez is a good pitcher. Unfortunately, he is coming off a great season and is probably due a big payday.

I'll go on record as saying that I want the Hermanator back. He's a servicable closer, and by not overpaying for a Proven Closer, the Giants will have some money to make improvements in other areas. Oh yeah, the Giants should also offer Hermanson arbitration. He's not going to get a huge raise and the Giants could get draft pick compensation if Hermanson were to sign elsewhere.

* Moises Alou

Moises Alou has been quoted as saying that he would like to play for his dad again. If Moises signs with the Giants, an interesting subplot of the season will be that two sons of former SF Giants stars will try to lead SF to that elusive World Series championship. This angle alone should be good for no fewer than four Joan Ryan columns on the subject.

* Daisuke Matsuzaka

Admittedly, I don't know a whole lot about him, he may not even be posted, and the Giants probably aren't seeking another starting pitcher. More than anything, I just want to take this opportunity to mention that I don't like the Giants' apparent unwillingness to tap the international player market. While other teams are snagging Hideki Matsui, Ichiro!, Otsuka, etc. Giants management is too busy crying poverty to bother looking into signing international players. There is no reason at all that a high revenue team like the Giants shouldn't be able to tap the international talent market. I said talent market -- Osvaldo Fernandez doesn't count.

If anyone knows more about Matsuzaka or other potential international free agents, please drop by the comments section.

* Aubrey Huff

Peter Gammons reports that the D-Rays are shopping Huff. Wait, why on earth is Tampa trying to trade Aubrey Huff? Because they're the Devil Rays, I guess. Huff would be a great fit with the Giants (needless to say a 27 year old with a career OPS+ of 119 would be a "great fit" with any team). He could play RF in 2005 and then take over at 1B in 2006. If nothing else, just make sure Huff doesn't go to the Dodgers, Sabes.

* Austin Kearns

Kearns is allegedly on the trading block. He's perpetually injured, so he'd be a big risk, but with enough magical Conte dust he could be a great pickup. Unfortunately, Kearns and the Reds haven't been connected to the Giants in any published trade rumors. However, half the fun of having a blog is making up and spreading unsubstantiated rumors myself. Making up shit is fun! Hmm...the Giants need an outfielder, and according to Gammons, the Reds need a third baseman...

Numerous anonymous baseball sources have told me that the Giants and Reds are discussing a potential deal involving Austin Kearns and Pedro Feliz. The Giants will probably have to throw in a prospect or three to even things out. So spread the word -- Kearns for Feliz!

Posted 9:02 PM by Doug

Moves, Moves, Moves

The Giants picked up the options on JT Snow, Brett Tomko, and Marquis Grissom, while declining Jason Christiansen's option. They also signed Deivi Cruz to a one year deal. Let's look at these moves one by one:

* Brett Tomko -- $2.5MM

I'm convinced that Brett Tomko is actually two different players. The good Brett Tomko can spot his mid 90s fastball with precision, while keeping the opposition off balance with an above average off speed stuff. He's a horse who can work deep into games. On the other hand, you have the bad Brett Tomko. The bad Brett Tomko is actually Jerry Spradlin.

Fortunately for the Giants, the good Brett Tomko showed up for them big time in September and October. Tomko finished the year with a VORP of 25 and an ERA+ of 110. Good move.

* JT Snow -- $2MM

Gee, didn't see this one coming...Here's an interesting note on Snow's 2004 PECOTA projection:

2004 projection: .245/.352/.373; .255 EqA
90th percentile: .283/.406/.421: .298 EqA

I'll also point out that the number one historical player comp for Snow's 2004 was Charlie Hayes' 2001: .200/.293/.240

And of course, here are JT Snow's actual 2004 numbers: .327/.429/.529; .324 EqA

Just thought I'd point that out (Hi Nate!).

* Marquis Grissom -- $2.75MM

Proven veteran! Playoff experience! Intangibles! Count the rings, bitch! I'm still awaiting the official Giants press release, but I guarantee that the terms "veteran" and "experience" will be used at least once in connection with the Marquis St. Everhack.

All kidding aside, I have mixed feelings on bringing back Grip. Grissom has some very useful skills - he can crush lefties with the best of them and he has some pop in his bat (for a CF). But his .300ish OBP is an anchor on the offense; so much so that it offsets the benefits of his power. For example:

Grissom 95 OPS+
Mohr 113 OPS+

Ok, I don't like this move. But, the last time the Giants signed Grissom I ranted and raved that it was a bad move. Prove me wrong again, Grip.

* Jason Christiansen -- 300k buyout

For all the grief that a certain Southern California-based baseball blogger gave the Giants brass for signing the Neifarious wonder of suck to that silly contract, it's easy to forget about the Christiansen contract. Fortunately, that albatross is now behind us as Christiansen has been sent packing. I expect JC to eventually resurface at the mecca of washed up, overpaid left-handed specialists - LaRussaville. Anyway, I'm very glad that he's gone.

* Deivi Cruz -- 800k plus incentives

Whenever you re-sign your dumpster dive find from the previous season, you need to keep in mind the Jeffrey Hammonds Rule - the lesson the Giants should've learned about Hammonds' 2003 isn't that he is a good player worth a million dollar contract. The lesson they should've learned is that there are other 2003 Jeffrey Hammonds' on the waiver wire that you can sign for a tad over the minimum.

That's not a perfect analogy since a decent hitting SS is harder to find than a mediocre corner outfielder, but the general rule still applies. Cruz is signed for 800k (plus incentives), which is a shade more than I would've paid, but I won't complain. The point is that Sabean followed the Hammonds rule this time and didn't grossly overpay his dumpster dive find.

These moves leave the Giants with a great deal of flexibility. As John Schlegel suggests, they could still sign a CF and shift Grissom to RF. They could still sign a RF to replace TuckMohr. Or they could stand pat with an outfield of Bonds, Grissom, TuckMohr, Linden/Ellison/Torcato/whatever and seek improvements elsewhere. They could give Cruz the starting SS job or they could let him fill a utility/pinch hitter role and go after another SS.

So, what do the Giants do next?

Posted 9:15 PM by Doug

Congratulations to the World Champion Boston Red Sox

And congrats to all of Sam Horn's progeny and Red Sox Nation. Hey, I guess cursed teams really can win the World Series. Maybe even the San Francisco Giants.

Update: This has been making the rounds on the internet, so I thought I'd hop on board the link bandwagon. Win it For... I dare you to read the entire thing.

Posted 11:45 AM by Doug

Magowan to Giants Fans: Drop Dead

Just hours after one of the most painful losses in franchise history put a cap on a frustrating season, the Giants managing general tightwad, Skippy McCheapskate, reassured fans that the Giants would not be in the market for any marquee names in the off season free agent market.

"It's unlikely you'll see a $14 million player on the Giants next year in addition to Barry Bonds," Magowan said. "That's too much money for two players. I don't think that's going to happen, but I think we'll have opportunities to find good players (who) will help us."

So, forget about signing Carlos Beltran or trading for Randy Johnson, but how about signing someone not quite as expensive like Magglio Ordonez or JD Drew or (choose your own free agent)? That probably won't happen either, or so speculates Joe Roderick:

"With about $66 million spoken for in salary, excluding options, the Giants won't have a lot of payroll maneuverability next season, either. So don't expect Nomar Garciaparra, Carlos Delgado or even Moises Alou, manager Felipe Alou's son, in a Giants uniform."

Not that I necessarily want those specific players (in the case of Moises Alou, I certainly do not), but the general point stands. Until further notice, don't expect any big names or even mid-level names to join the Giants in the off season. Expect the Giants to continue running the habitrail of Michael Tuckers.

Perhaps the biggest problem with the Giants is not move A or move B, but the general organizational philosophy of the franchise. The Giants goal is not necessarily to win a World Series; their goal is to be "competitive" on the smallest payroll possible. In fact, the Giants ownership would probably consider this season a great success. The team played one meaningless game, they drew 3.3 million fans, Barry hit historic homeruns, and they saved a few million dollars by slashing payroll in the off season.

There is great irony in the fact that the decision to go cut payroll last winter probably cost the team a playoff spot and therefore an opportunity to make millions more in postseason revenue. Penny wise, pound foolish. But such short-sightedness is standard operating procedure for the Giants ownership.

I know all of this hand waving probably won't change a thing. The Giants ownership is committed to fielding a "competitive team," but they refuse to provide the resources to take the team to the next level. Magowan does not want to pay for a slugger to hit behind Bonds. Fine. There's nothing the Lunatic Fringe can do about this. But, if he refuses to buy free agents, perhaps Magowan could use that money to buy himself a clue.

***

Realizing that his Hall of Fame bound superstars Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio were entering the twilight of their careers, Houston Astros owner Drayton McClane made a big push in the past several months to get his team to the World Series. They followed up an offseason in which they signed Jeff Kent by reeling in free agent pitchers Andy Pettite and Roger Clemens. When they needed another big bat in the lineup, the ownership provided the resources to pick up Carlos Beltran.

Will the Astros turn these investments into a World Series banner? Well, they're my pick to win it all, but that's not the point. The point is that the ownership group a) realized that they had in place the nucleus of a very good team that perhaps just needed a push to put it over the top, b) realized that their window of opportunity was closing quickly, and c) wanted to make one final run to win their superstars a ring.

In San Francisco, the local team has several important components of a championship caliber team. They have a dominating #1 starter in Jason Schmidt. They finally have the leadoff hitter they've been missing since Brett Butler. They have a sharp GM, a capable coaching staff, and loyal fans who fill their stadium to capacity. Oh yeah, they also have the greatest hitter since Ted Williams who just put up arguably the greatest offensive season in the history of baseball. But they need a few more useful parts to push them over the top. If there was ever a time to go for it, it's right here, right now.

While I'm in a Ranting Mood...

Because I'm an equal opportunity ranter, in addition to the ownership, I'll channel my additional frustration at the following people:

* Brian Sabean

On the opening road trip of the season, when Felipe Alou turned to David Aardsma in a critical situation it was clear that the Giants were an arm or two short in the bullpen. Sabean had the entire year to address this problem and what did he do? "Turtle piss and Dave Burba."

* My Dad

Why oh why did you have to leave the east coast for California? I could've been born a Yankee fan! In my short lifetime I could've witnessed approximately 3,658 Yankees World Series victory parades. But no, I have to be from San Francisco, the home of a cursed franchise which will never win a World Series in my lifetime!

* Joe Buck

He has nothing do with any of this, but while we're on the subject of people who bug me...It's bad enough that we have to go through a Giantsless post season, but do we really have to suffer through another October of this pretentious assgoblin butchering each game that he calls? It was so bad on Tuesday night that I had to switch the channel. How dare he make me actually watch the Vice Presidential Debate.

* Cody Ransom

Could you at least try to not suck harder than a million simultaneously collapsing galaxies?

* Neifarious

Most. Hated. Giant. Ever. But you knew that already.

* The Rockies

Ned Colletti brought up an excellent point last Friday. If the Rockies had showed up to a game in Scottsdale with a starting lineup that included six rookies, major league baseball rules would've prevented them from playing the game! So, a lineup that is not worthy of a spring training game is somehow good enough to start a game the final weekend of the season with everything on the line. Thanks, Clint.

* Bud Selig

Somehow, all of this is his fault.

Posted 5:55 PM by Doug

It Breaks Your Heart

"It was designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. You count on it, rely on it to buffer the passage of time, to keep the memory of sunshine and high skies alive, and then, just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops. Today, October 2, a Sunday of rain and broken branches and leaf-clogged drains and slick streets, it stopped, and summer was gone.

Somehow, the summer seemed to slip by faster this time. Maybe it wasn't this summer, but all the summers that, in this, my fortieth summer, slipped by so fast. There comes a time when every summer will have something of the autumn about it. Whatever the reason, it seemed to me that I was investing more and more time in baseball, making the game do more of the work that keeps time fat and slow and lazy. I was counting on the game's deep patterns, three strikes, three outs, three times three innings, and its deepest impulse, to go out and back, to leave and to return home, to set the order of the day and to organize the daylight. I wrote a few things this last summer, this summer that did not last, nothing grand but some things, and yet that work was just camouflage. The real activity was done with the radio-not the all-seeing, all-falsifying television-and was the playing of the game in the only place it will last, the enclosed green field of the mind. There, in that warm, bright place, what the old poet called Mutability does not so quickly come.

But out here, on Sunday, October 2, where it rains all day, Dame Mutability never loses. She was in the crowd at Fenway yesterday, a gray day full of bluster and contradiction, whenn the Red Sox came up in the last half of the ninth trailing Baltimore 8-5, while the Yankees, rain delayed against Detroit, only needing to win one or have Boston lose one to win it all, sat in New York washing down cold cuts and with beer and watching the Boston game. Boston had won two, the Yankees had lost two, and suddenly it seemed as if the whole season might go to the last day, or beyond, except here was Boston losing 8-5, while New York sat in its family room and put its feet up. Lynn, both ankles hurting now as they had in July, hits a single down the right field line. The crowd stirs. It is on its feet. Hobson, third baseman, former Bear Bryant quarterback, strong, quiet, over 100 RBIs, goes for three breaking balls and is out. The goddess smiles and encourages her agent, a canny journeyman named Nelson Briles.

Now comes a pinch hitter, Bernie Carbo, onetime Rookie of the Year, erratic, quick, a shade too handsome, so laidback he is always, in his soul, stretched out in the tall grass, on arm under his head, watching the clouds and laughing; now he looks over some low stuff unworthy of him and then, uncoiling, sends one out, straight on a rising line, over the centerfield wall, no cheap Fenway shot, but all of it, the physics as elegant as the arc the ball describes.

New England is on its feet, roaring. The summer will not pass. Roaring, they recall the evening, late and cold, in 1975, the sixth game of the World Series, perhaps the greatest baseball game played in the last fifty years, when Carbo, loose and easy, had uncoiled to tie the game that Fisk would win. It is 8-7, one out, and school will never start, rain will never come, sun will warm the back of your neck forever. Now Bailey, picked up from the National League recently, big arms, heavy gut, experienced, new to the league and the club; he fouls off two and then, checking, tentative, a big man off balance, he pops a soft liner to the first baseman. It is suddenly darker and later, and the announcer doing the game coast to coast, a New Yorker who works for a New York television station, sounds relieved. His little world, well-lit, hot-combed, split-second-timed, had no capacity to absorb this much gritty, grainy, contrary reality. Cox swings a bat, stretches his long arms, bends his back, the rookie from Pawtucket who broke in two weeks earlier with a record six straight hits, the kid drafted ahead of Fred Lynn, rangy, smooth, cool. The count runs two and two, Briles is cagey, nothing too good, and Cox swings, the ball beginning toward the mound and then, in a jaunty, wayward dance, skipping past Briles, fainting to the right, skimming the last of the grass, finding the dirt, moving now like some small, purposeful marine creature negotiating the green deep, easily avoiding the jagged rock of second base, traveling steady and straight now out into the dark, silent recesses of center field.

The aisles are jammed, the place is on its feet, the wrappers, the programs, the Coke cups and peanut shells, the doctrines of an afternoon; the anxieties, the things that have to be done tomorrow, the regrets about yesterday, the accumulation of a summer: all forgotten, while hope, the anchor, bites and takes hold where a moment before it seemed we would be swept out with the tide. Rice is up. Rice whom Aaron had said was the only one he'd ever seen with the ability to break his records. Rice the best clutch hitter on the club, with the best slugging percentage in the league. Rice, so quick and strong he once checked his swing halfway through and snapped the bat in two. Rice the Hammer of God sent to scourge the Yankees, the sound was overwhelming, fathers pounded their sons on the back, cars pulled off the road, households froze, New England exulted in its blessedness, and roared its thanks for all good things, for Rice and for a summer stretching halfway through October. Briles threw, Rice swung, and it was over. One pitch, a fly to center, and it stopped. Summer died in New England and like rain sliding off a roof, the crowd slipped out of Fenway, quickly, with only a steady murmur of concern for the drive ahead remaining of the roar. Mutability had turned the seasons and translated hope to memory once again. And, once again, she had used baseball, our best invention to stay change, to bring change on. That is why it breaks my heart, that game-not because in New York they could win because Boston lost; in that, there is a rough justice, and a reminder to the Yankees of how slight and fragile are the circumstances that exalt one group of human beings over another. It breaks my heart because it was meant to foster in me again the illusion that there was something abiding, some pattern and some impulse that could come together to make a reality that would resist the corrosion; and because, after it had fostered again the most hungered-for illusion, the game was meant to stop, and betray precisely what it promised it promised.

Of course, there are those who learn after the first few times. They grow out of sports. And there are others who were born with the wisdom to know that nothing lasts. These are the truly tough among us, the ones who can live without illusion. I am not that grown up or up-to-date. I am a simpler creature, tied to more primitive patterns and cycles. I need to think something lasts forever, and it might as well be that state of being that is a game; it might as well be that, in a green field, in the sun."

-- Bart Giamatti

Posted 9:35 PM by Doug

Down the Stretch

As the tired baseball cliche says, momentum is only as good as tomorrow's starting pitcher. Unfortunately for the Giants, said pitcher was Brett Bomko who picked a bad day to have his worst start in nearly two months. But enough about Sunday's depressing game. Here are some random thoughts as the regular season draws to a close.

* As far as I can tell, here are the pitching matchups for the remainder of the season:

9/28 - Schmidt vs. Lawrence
9/29 - Lowry vs. Wells
9/30 - Williams vs. Eaton (or Peavy on short rest)

10/1 - Rueter vs. Weaver
10/2 - Tomko vs. Jackson (maybe Wilson Alvarez)
10/3 - Schmidt vs. Ishii (or Perez on short rest)

Noah Lowry would be the starter should the Giants play a one game playoff to break a tie. The Giants won all five of the coin tosses they were involved in, so this game would be played at Pac Bell.

* Here's an interesting stat:

EqA

Pierzynski .246
Torrealba .250

Because of a late season tailspin, AJ's EqA has dropped below Torrealba's. As someone who supported the AJ/Nathan trade at the time it was made, even I am finally willing to concede that the Giants got hosed. While the requisite sample size disclaimers apply to the stats that Torrealba put up in only 186 PAs, it appears that there may not be a whole lot of difference between AJ and Torrealba on the offensive side. Needless to say, Torrealba is the superior defensive player.

Between his refusal to take a walk, all of the GIDPs, the baserunning blunders, his contract status, and the fact that he really isn't an upgrade over Torrealba, you'll have a tough time convincing me that AJ should be back next year. So, who needs a catcher?

* Dear Joe Buck,

Your dad called. He wants his DNA back.

* When a team has a better record than they probably should, it does not automatically mean that the manager of the team is a genius. I guess I'm a little tired of seeing articles that credit Felipe Alou for the Giants success, but offer no explanation of why he's doing a great job. Sure, the Giants are outperforming their pythag projection, but is this because of Alou, in spite of him, or does Alou have much to do with it at all? If you feel that Alou's moves are the reason why the Giants are overperforming, that's fine, just cite the specific moves Alou has made that has put the team in contention heading into the final week of the season.

* One of the important ingredients of a memorable, historic moment is the call from the home team announcer. And Jon Miller's rousing call of Pedro Feliz' grand slam is the call of the year as far as I'm concerned. If you haven't heard Miller's memorable tribute to Russ Hodges, check out sfgiants.com.

Posted 10:45 PM by Doug

The Pedro Feliz Game

The Brian Johnson game. The Joe Morgan game. The Mike Ivie game. The Pedro Feliz game. While Saturday's thrilling victory over the hated Dodgers may not be as historic as the first three on the list, it will always be remembered in Westwood Blues lexicon as simply "the Pedro Feliz game."

As Feliz' homerun sailed through the air, I felt the kind of exhilleration that I have only felt a few times before in my baseball viewing life. In 1993, Robby Thompson hit The Shot Heard 'Round the Stick, propelling the Giants to an improbable walk off victory over Bryan Harvey and the Marlins. And in Game 4 of the 2002 NLCS, immediately following an intentional walk to Barry Bonds, Benito Santiago brought the house down with a thrilling, game winning homerun that propelled the Giants to the World Series. The feeling of releasing all of the tension that had a built up through eight innings and nearly three hours of a must-win nail-biter is incredible.

The energy at today's game was great, but we need to keep it going for the final home game of the season. So, with the Pedro Feliz grand slam fresh in your mind, channel all of your Joe Morgan mojo, your visions of Mike Ivie circling the bases, and your memories of Brian Johnson raising his arms above his head as he strode toward home plate in triumph, and scream in unison:

BEAT LA!

Posted 1:15 PM by Doug

Chasing October

Yeah, I've finally gotten around to adding comments to the site. I've been busy for the last couple of years, ok?

Tragically, I don't have much time to provide my witty banter about the current pennant race, but I'll make some time for a nostalgic trip down memory lane. So pull up a chair, cause Grandpa Doug has a story to tell. If I was much, much older, I'd talk about the 1951 pennant race when the Giants went 37-8 down the stretch, erasing a 13 1/2 game deficit, and defeating the Dodgers in a three game playoff to win the pennant. Or maybe I'd tell you the story of the 1962 Giants who were four games behind the Dodgers with seven to play and not only caught the Dodgers, but beat them in a playoff to advance to the World Series.

Instead, let's revisit September of 1997. Having won the first game of a two game series against the hated Dodgers, the Giants were one game out of first place heading into a matinee matchup with LA on September 18, 1997. On the strength of a three-run homerun from Barry Bonds in the fifth inning, the Giants jumped out to a 5-1 lead. The Dodgers mounted a comeback, as shockingly, Julian Tavarez couldn't hold a lead. The Giants four run lead vanished when LA tied the game at 5 runs apiece in the seventh inning.

Neither side scored in the eighth or ninth, so the game moved to extra innings. In the top of the tenth, embattled reliever Rod Beck gave up three consecutive singles to open the inning. The Dodgers had the bases loaded with nobody out. With his back against the wall and the Candlestick faithful growing restless, Beck proved why he will always be one of my favorite Giants. Todd Zeile was caught looking at strike three for out number one. Then, Beck threw one pitch to Eddie Murray and got the Hall of Famer to ground weakly into a double play to end the inning. Inning over. Beck's line for the inning - 1 IP, 3H, 0 ER.

When the game moved to the bottom of the twelfth, a local kid named Brian Johnson lead off the inning for the Giants. You know the rest of the story. On the first pitch he saw from LA reliever Mark Guthrie, Johnson hit a laser to left. When it first left his bat I thought that the Hawk would swoop down and steal a homerun, much like it did earlier in the game when Eric Karros crushed a towering drive to left field. I was wrong. Johnson's shot to lead off the twelfth landed in the bleachers, sending the sell out crowd into a frenzy.

Giants 6
Dodgers 5

The Giants never looked back as they clinched the division championship a couple of weeks later.

One thing I'll remember about that series was the amazing energy from the crowd at Candlestick. I wasn't even at either of the games, but the crowd was so powerful you could practically feel them pushing Johnson's shot to left through the treacherous Candlestick winds and over the wall by the shear force of their will.

So, for this weekend series against the Dodgers, I have one request for fans who plan on attending the games - please be loud. I'm driving up from LA for the series and I want my ears to be ringing with the chants of "BEAT LA!" Tommy LaSorda won't be there (at least I don't think he won't), but boo him anyway. You know that guy who plays left field for the Giants - make some noise for him. Lord knows he deserves it.

Remember the joy you felt when Johnson's shot landed in the bleachers or the feeling of euphoria you had at the sight of Barry Bonds standing atop the Giants dugout celebrating a division championship. We need that energy in the Pac Bell crowd for the weekend series against the bums.

Feel free to add your own Giants/Dodgers memories. Or you can always take this opportunity to let me know that I'm an idiot for saying that "I've never been particularly high on Noah Lowry," among other things.

The Series:

Game 1 - Friday 7:15
Odalis Perez (6-6, 3.39) vs. Kirk Rueter (8-11, 4.82)

Game 2 - Saturday 1:10
Jose Lima (13-5, 4.06) vs. Brad Hennessey (?) (2-2, 4.40)

Game 3 - Sunday 1:05
Jeff Weaver (12-12, 4.00) vs. Brett Tomko (11-6, 4.15)

BEAT LA!
BEAT LA!
BEAT LA!

Posted 11:15 AM by Doug

Ode to Barry

What's left to say about Barry Bonds that hasn't already been said? I'm stumped, so let's turn to some other internet writers to fill in the gaps.

* What would Barry Bonds' numbers look like if he was a pitcher? That's the question Dayn Perry of Baseball Prospectus asks in this column (subscription required). Perry uses VORP to translate Bonds' offensive stats into pitching stats. The result? Not surprisingly, the numbers are mind boggling.

"In 2001, Curt Schilling paced the majors with 256 2/3 innings pitched. Pegging Bonds '01 VORP of 154.1 to that figure, here's what we get:

IP R/G ERA
Bonds 256.2 0.79 0.73

In case you've forgotten just how rarified Bonds' air is these days, this should serve as a sufficient reminder. In 2001, he could've pitched a league-leading number of innings and given up roughly 22 runs on the season. He also would've boasted an ERA about 595% better than the NL average that year. Additionally, his ERA in percentage terms would've fared better compared to Randy Johnson's second-best mark than Johnson's would've compared to Mike Hampton's ERA, which was the worst among NL qualifiers for the ERA title. In other words, Johnson was closer to the league's worst than to Bonds.

Since innings and runs allowed can vary while yielding the same VORP, it's worth wondering: How many scoreless innings could Bonds have pitched that season while still posting a VORP of 154.1? The answer: 224. That's an innings total that would've ranked sixth in the NL that season, and Bonds could've reached it without allowing a single run, earned or unearned. That's one of the stupidest things I've seen in my life. But there it is."

How about 2004?

"For the present season, Livan Hernandez is slated to top the loop with 247 innings, and Bonds, as previously mentioned, is on target for a VORP of 147. The digits:

IP R/G ERA
Bonds 247.0 0.83 0.77

That's more like it. Bonds' ERA of 0.77 would be almost two full runs less than Johnson's league-pacing mark of 2.75. Again, in percentage terms, Bonds' ERA compares much more favorably to the Unit's NL best ERA than Johnson's does to Jose Acevedo's bottom-feeding 6.28. Put another way, Bonds this season could throw 213 2/3 innings without surrendering even one run to match his VORP.

Over the past four seasons, Bonds the pitcher could've maintained his actual VORPs while throwing 815 2/3 shutout innings. Once more for maximum emphasis: 815 2/3 shutout innings. That's roughly five fewer frames than Roger Clemens will wind up pitching over that same span. Imagine a pitcher who ranked 19th in all of baseball in innings pitched over a four-year span. Now imagine him not surrendering a single run in those four seasons. In terms of VORP, that's Bonds the pitcher."

* Not that there is any real debate about who the NL MVP is this season, but Random Fandom passes along this tidbit:

"2004 San Francisco Giants = 2004 Arizona Diamondbacks + Barry Bonds

How do I get this? Simple. Barry Bonds makes up (as of 9/9) about 20.5% of the Giants' Win Shares. Believing as I do that Win Shares shouldn't always use actual records but instead Pythagenport records, the San Francisco Giants not named Barry Bonds have 180 Win Shares. The D-Backs' Pythagenport-ized Win Share total? 169. Pretty close, eh? You know who's got my vote."

* And what would a post about tidbits be without a contribution from Jayson Stark? Stark joins the Bonds tidbit parade with some of his patented bits of useless information:

"Here's one more way to look at Bonds' 105 intentional walks this year. That's more intentional walks than all of these active players have walks in more than 1,500 career at-bats:

Shea Hillenbrand -- 84 BB, 2,121 AB
Bengie Molina -- 86 BB, 2,034 AB
Einar Diaz -- 89 BB, 1,908 AB
A.J. Pierzynski -- 76 BB, 1,853 AB
Cesar Izturis -- 78 BB, 1,737 AB
Juan Uribe -- 88 BB, 1,608 AB
Randall Simon -- 80 BB, 1,588 AB
Juan Castro -- 98 BB, 1,575 AB

Finally, one more Bonds stat that boggles our mind:

Even if he had zero hits this year (i.e., subtract his hit total from times on base), Bonds still would have a higher on-base percentage (.378) -- just counting his walks -- than Juan Pierre (.373), Vladimir Guerrero (.377), David Ortiz (.373), Milton Bradley (.363) or Rafael Furcal (.352). Among about 600 others."

* Lastly, Swingin' Amiss has a great post that notes that Barry Bonds could set an obscure record this year - most at-bats in a season by a player with more times on base (H+BB+HBP) than at-bats.

"Through the games of September 10, 2004, Barry Bonds has produced a batting line that includes 326 at-bats and 327 times on base (122 H, 198 BB, 7 BHP).

Thus Bonds has achieved a TOB/AB ratio of 1.003 and to put that into context here are the previous all-time best ratios in a full season:

.883 Barry Bonds - 2002
.746 Barry Bonds - 2003
.737 John McGraw - 1899
.735 Ted Williams - 1941
.726 Babe Ruth - 1923
.718 Barry Bonds - 2001
.710 Babe Ruth - 1920
.699 Ted Williams - 1954
.683 Ted Williams - 1957
.673 Mickey Mantle - 1957"

Read the whole thing. Go, now.

Posted 10:28 PM by Doug

#700

Congrats to Homerun Jesus on yet another milestone.

After all these years, this never gets old.

Posted 9:55 PM by Doug

Hi, I'm Al Pedrique...

...and I'm an enormous tool!

"I'm going to be honest. I don't want him to do it here at home. I'm sorry for the fans. I'm sorry for baseball. But that's the way it is. In this game, you have to have a lot of pride and the way this year has gone for us this would be the last thing that we need."

I've long defended opposing managers who repeatedly walk Barry Bonds, but this particular case crosses the line between being competitive and making a mockery of the game. The opposing manager's job is to win baseball games. If they feel that walking Barry Bonds in certain situations is a means of achieving their goal of winning, then they should walk him. When Al Pedrique walked Bonds down 5-1 in the seventh inning and freely admitted that his motivation for walking Bonds had nothing to do with winning a baseball game, he went too far.

Amazingly enough, the commish called Pedrique on his BS. Sort of. Selig said that Pedrique's comments "deserved further scrutiny." Knowing Selig, he won't do anything else to address the problem, but asking R. Budd to actually do his job would probably be asking too much. At the very least, the powers that be in baseball might acknowledge that a problem exists.

On Tuesday, Pedrique got wind of Seligula's comments and shifted to damage control mode. Pedrique offered this load of nonsense in an attempt to clarify his original comments:

"I don't think there's anything wrong if I said that you've got to have some pride when you play this game. You've got to have pride. The last thing I wanted to do was to give Barry an easy shot to hit 700 home runs and I don't think there's anything wrong with it.

If you look at the stats from the other teams, everybody has walked Barry Bonds. I'm not the only one. The Diamondbacks are not the only ones. For the commissioner to make that kind of comment, I would like to hear from him what was his reason behind it. Because again, there's nothing wrong with having pride when you play this game... Now watch this drive."

Memo to the soon to be former fortyoneandahalfbacks manager -- Of course, there's nothing wrong with "having pride when you play the game." However, denying someone the opportunity to reach a milestone because you don't want to be embarassed is not "playing with pride." Rather, you are making a mockery of the competitive spirit of baseball, while also establishing the fact that you are a bitter, selfish prick.

You're Fired!

Posted 10:39 PM by Doug

The Best Laid Plans...

Just when you're about to finally give up on the Giants, they pull off a miraculous come from behind victory, giving you hope again that this flawed team could be headed to the playoffs. Then, a few days later, the Giants ace gives up 6 runs as SF loses a heartbreaker to the hapless Rocks. Will the real Giants team please stand up?

The Giants are in the midst of a 14 game stretch where they face off against the Rockies, Diamondbacks, and Brewers. With tonight's loss against the Rockies, the Giants have stumbled out to a 4-3 start in the first half of this 14 game stretch. This stretch of games should be the part of the schedule where the Giants should be making their move. Instead, they're just treading water.

Oh, and Dave Burba? I can't complain. But a three week rental of Dave Burba as your solution to the trainwreck that is the Giants blowpen is like preparing for hurricane Frances by sand bagging your front door with two dozen packets of sweet 'n low.

Will Barry Rest?

With under 25 games to go and still a few off days on the schedule, it looks like Bonds probably won't be taking any days off. If Bonds doesn't start, but later appears as a pinch hitter, then Felipe Alou needs to use him effectively. The option of either using Bonds as a pinch hitter in the seventh inning with the bases loaded or using him in the ninth inning with two outs and nobody on should be a fairly easy decision. Bonds needs to be used in the highest leverage situation possible.

When you're playing Scrabble and you have a blank tile, you don't use it as a letter C to spell the word cat. Instead, you use it to spell benzoxycamphors. Bad analogies aside, there is no way that Michael Tucker should hit for himself when the game is on the line and your trump card has not been used. Yes, Tucker wound up walking against Tom Martin in that situation, despite his historically poor numbers against lefties. But when you hit on 18 and get a 3, you didn't make a smart move, you made a lucky move.

Hopefully, Bonds will just play all of the remaining games anyway, rendering this discussion meaningless (although said discussion did allow me to use my benzoxycamphors line, so its not a total lost cause).

Death Cab for Cubbies

I'd like to extend a warm welcome back to the majors to my favorite player, Neifi Perez. Here's hoping that Neifarious gets a lot of playing time down the stretch for the Cubs.

Posted 9:55 PM by Doug

Maybe I'm in a Bad Mood

Out of all the poor decisions the Giants made in the winter, the single biggest blunder may have been holding the belief that Joe Nathan doesn't have the mental makeup to be a closer, but Matt Herges does. Whoops.

That is all.

No wait, one more thing.

Fuck Fucking Fuck Fuck wrong fucking base fucking fuck fuck fuckity fuck fuck fuck just fucking throw it to fucking AJ mother fucking fuck fuck fucking Herges.

Posted 12:57 PM by Doug

#7

"Nobody can get him out. ... He's the MVP by far. It's easy. East Coast people won't see it, but it's easy. Nobody is even close." -- a certain struggling Dodgers closer

Nobody can get him out...nobody is even close. Wow, through that weird French-Canadian accent, Eric Gagne actually makes a good deal of sense. Well, he is viewing the MVP race through rose colored goggles and is actually referring to Adrian Beltre in that quote, but that's just nitpicking. At least he knows that the contest for MVP isn't close.

Barry Bonds is blowing away the competition for MVP (again). Let's look at some of the mind boggling numbers.

* In terms of EqA, the gap between Bonds and Beltre is bigger than the gap between Beltre and Cody Ransom. Hell, the gap between Bonds and Beltre about as big as the gap between Beltre and Neifarious.

* Among the 159 players in major league baseball who have enough PAs to qualify, Barry Bonds ranks first in OPS. The gap between Bonds (#1) and Beltre (#7) is bigger than the gap between Beltre and Alex Cintron, who ranks 158th.

In the coming weeks, I'm sure we'll see some Tejadaesque justification for Beltre winning the MVP, such as "he's really clutch" and "he's hit some really big homeruns" and "he's carried the team." While this is certainly true, it's not as if Bonds is unclutch and hasn't carried the Giants. Here are the very clutchy numbers for Superman:

RISP - .386/.755/.860
"Close and Late" - .350/.671/.875

Oh, and just for fun, here is Barry's month of August:

.423/.644/1.019 with 8 HRs and 23 runs in 52 ABs

I could go on and on, but my lunch hour is just about over. The point remains - you can argue that Beltre (or Pujols, or Rolen, or Edmonds) deserve the MVP this year. It's just that you would be wrong.

Posted 10:32 PM by Doug

Fuzzy Math?

As a follow up to an earlier post, I decided to dig a little deeper into Stadium Debt Deductiongate. An increased revenue sharing burden has been trotted out as one of the excuses for the Giants decision to cut payroll this past winter. The following is an excerpt from a Chronicle article (thanks El Lefty) that examines the Giants finances:

But why cut payroll? Because, the Giants say, the economics of the game have changed since the last collective-bargaining agreement, and profits from the early years of the Pac Bell Park have vanished.

The Giants reported to Major League Baseball profits of $5 million in 2000, $4 million in 2001 and less than $1 million in 2002. They reported a loss of roughly $15 million last year and say they expect a similar deficit for 2004 because revenues have flattened out, within a range of $160 million to $167 million, while expenses have soared.

Most notably, the Giants' contribution to revenue sharing has risen from $6 million a year in 2000 to an estimated $13 million for 2004.

To be fair, it's unclear from the article where these numbers are coming from (are they the Chronicle's estimates or were they provided to the Chronicle by the Giants?) but if both the $13 million payout and the estimated approximately $8 million deduction are to be believed, then The Giants' revenue sharing payout should be roughly $21 million a year. Via e-mail, Neil deMaus confirmed that $21 million is in the ballpark of what the Giants should be paying annually in revenue sharing. So, it's certainly within the realm of possibility that the Giants aren't necessarily lying about the amount of money they contribute to revenue sharing, although they obviously aren't volunteering the fact that they get a huge deduction on their revenue sharing payment.

I then contacted Dr. Andrew Zimbalist, an expert in sports economics and the author of May the Best Team Win: Baseball Economics and Public Policy. He confirmed that the Giants do deduct stadium debt from their revenue sharing payments. However, he estimated that the Giants deduct "a lot more than $8 million" a year, although he refused to provide a specific number.

I don't know what to think anymore. The Giants books are not open to the public, so the best we can do is make estimates. Before a group of disgruntled fans form McCovey Cove Swift Kayakers For Truth and broadcast a bunch of ads attacking Peter Magowan, just keep in mind that we can't state with any degree of certainty if the Giants are making money hand over fist, breaking even, or losing money. We need to rely on the estimates of sports economics experts whose differing methodologies can produce results with material differences.

Posted 8:58 PM by Doug

Ode to Neifi

In his brilliant tale The Never Ending Story, Michael Ende depicts a plane of existence which is composed entirely of the dreams and storys of all people in the real world. Every story ever told exists somewhere in this universe named Fantasia. Sadly, the very existence of this universe becomes threatened when no one in the real world dreams or tells storys. Fueled by mankind's refusal to dream, the greatest conceivable evil of all, the lack of imagination and fantasy ("the Nothing"), seeks to destroy Fantasia.

The San Franciso Giants sub-section of Fantasia is full of World Series victory parades, visions of Scott Speizio whiffing for strike three, and even fantasies of a shortstop with an OPS over .580. But all of these dreams were threatened when the worst conceivable hitter in the history of baseball -- The Neifi -- a shortstop with the worst 5 year RCAA in major league history, signed a two year contract with the Giants prior to the 2003 season.

From the day that Brian Sabean signed him to that ridiculous contract, Giants fans had dreams that one day Neifi would be traded or released. Fantasia was teeming with the fantasies of Bay Area children dreaming of Neifi being traded to the Rockies in the off season. It didn't happen. Maybe a mighty dragon will galantly swoop down from the heavens, eat Neifi, fly down the coast to Chavez Ravine and then shit Neifi into the Dodgers starting lineup. Nope.

I saw an Internet rumor on Friday morning that the Giants were set to release the Neifarious one. Too good to be true, I thought. As the rumor was quickly dismissed by cynical fans, the viability of Giants Fantasia was in danger. But just when it appeared that The Neifi would forever kill a world composed entirely of the hopes and aspirations of Giants fandom, some savior dared to dream of a Giants team without Nifty. Equipped with only the force of imagination, somewhere, somebody believed that Neifi was set to be released. Meanwhile, in the real world, with a quick and fatal press release, the force of all that is evil in Giants baseball, The Neifi, is no more. The San Francisco Giants announced that Neifi Perez had been released.

I've been waiting nearly two years to say this, so here goes: It gives me immense pleasure to permanently downgrade the Neifi Alert Status to level blue.

NEIFI FUCKING PEREZ HAS BEEN RELEASED!!!

If you've ever visited this site before, you may have guessed that I do not like Neifi Perez. I've repeatedly documented the overwhelming statistical evidence that proves that Neifi is not only an awful hitter, but an historically awful hitter. Occasionally I get feedback from some delusional fan, who says that I'm a big meanie who is too hard on The Neifi. Neifi can't possibly be that bad, right? Wrong.

I've quoted this before, but it's worth repeating one final time. From Neifi's 2003 PECOTA card (emphasis added):

Lee Sinins, who runs a daily newsletter from www.baseballimmortals.net, uses a metric called "Runs Created Above Average"- adjusted for things like ballpark and league context - to evaluate ballplayers. By his metric, Neifi Perez is probably the worst hitter in major league history. Perez was -57 RCAA last year, the sixth-worst figure since 1900 - but hardly worse than his usual standards, which include -54 (1999), -52 (2000), and -48 (1998). Over the past five years, Perez has cost his team 243 runs offensively, which is a record. In fact, no other player has ever cost his team so many runs over a six-year span. Clearly, he's a special player.

Put it this way: replacing Perez with a league-average hitter would help the Royals more than replacing Michael Tucker with Shawn Green would. Amazingly, the Giants signed him to a two-year contract, so we'll use the same analogy with say, J. T. Snow and Mike Sweeney in next year's book.

Yes, by one metric Neifi is the worst hitter in the history baseball. Let that statement sink in for a while. Of the thousands and thousands of players who have played in the major leagues, Neifi Perez may be the least productive hitter of them all.

His numbers early in his career were nothing more than a Coors Field mirage. Once you adjust for park factors, Neifi's stint in Colorado was remarkably futile. In 1998, his first full year in the big leagues, Neifi posted an OPS+ of 70. This would turn out to be one of the most productive years of his career. He followed that up with an OPS+ of 61 in 1999 and an OPS+ of 66 in 2000.

Remarkably, the Royals traded for Neifi in the middle of the 2001 season. Perez rewarded the Royals with a .241/.277/.302 line in 2001, good for an OPS+ of 47. He was even worse in 2002. Not only did Nifty post a line worthy of a double arm amputee (.236/.260/.303), and an OPS+ of 40(!) but Neifi had a run in with the Royals manager. After a year and a half with KC, the Royals had seen enough and gave this clubhouse cancer his walking papers.

After being crowned the Hacking Mass MVP as the worst hitter in all of baseball in 2002, it appeared that Neifi's days as a regular were over. Unfortunately for the San Francisco Giants and their fans, Brian Sabean swooped in and inexplicably awarded Neifi with a multi-year contract. In a quote that read more like a satire than an actual justification for signing and grossly overpaying for an offensive black hole, Sabean defended the Neifi signing by explaining that signing a switch hitter who can play second and short was "as if you're signing four players."

Sabean's Folly proceeded to shit out a .256/.285/.348 line in 2003. For reasons best kept to themselves, the Giants were apparently so pleased with Neifi's offensive futility and his flashy but mediocre defense that they awarded El Malo the starting shortstop job for 2004.

In what came as a surprise to absolutely no one, the Neifmeister's 2004 was a complete and utter trainwreck. His .232/.276/.295 line and his .571 OPS don't tell the whole story. By VORP, the difference between Neifi and Deivi Cruz, a waiver wire claim who has a shade over 200 PAs, is about the same as the difference between Chris Woodward and Nomar Garciaparra. Also, Neifi's OPS is lower than Superman's OBP.

In the face of this overwhelming stench, even Brian Sabean saw the light and finally gave up on Neifarious. In fact, the Giants were apparently so down on Nifty, that they preferred a player with a career .230 minor league batting average coming into this year instead of Perez. Cody Ransom's only extended period of offensive success in the minors came at age 28, his fourth year at AAA, an extreme hitters league.

Johnnie LeRansom probably won't be much of an upgrade over Neifi, but I don't care. After nearly two years of posting some of the most miserable and hapless ABs in recent Giants history, shitcanning Neifi was the only option. Neifi is gone. It's about time.

Posted 9:47 PM by Doug

Behold - The Brand New Closer!

In desperate need of bullpen help, the Giants have moved Dustin Hermanson from the rotation into the closer's role. This should be the point where I scold the Giants for moving a semi-effective starter out of the rotation, but I actually like this move. Well, I like it with a few qualifications.

I'd rather have a starter who can pitch 7 or 8 innings every fifth day than a closer who pitches two or three innings per week. The problem is that Hermanson does not pitch 7 or 8 innings each time out; he's averaging a shade under 6 innings per start.

Generally speaking, pitching the high leverage late innings of a close game is about twice as valuable as pitching the lower leverage innings at the start of the game. In other words, Hermanson needs to pitch about three high leverage innings per turn in the rotation as a reliever to match his overall value as a starter.

So the goal should be to use Hermanson enough out of the bullpen to justify moving him there. For example, let's just say that the Giants are in a tight game heading into the eighth inning. Do you parade Scott Eyre, the struggling Matt Herges, and an inexperienced El Magico Valdez out of the pen to pitch to the opposition? No. Ideally Hermanson can be used in a non-traditional way to close out games (or in this case to keep the Giants in the game). Of course, that didn't happen because *gasp* a closer can't possibly pitch the eighth inning, especially when his team is trailing. But maybe Alou will become so desperate for a reliever who can get outs that he'll actually use Hermanson in high leverage non-save situations such as today's eighth inning (and also for more than one inning in selected save situations).

The bottom line is that SF needed to do something to address the problems in the blowpen. Because Sabean didn't acquire anyone at the trade deadline (and in fact, traded away a reliever), this problem has to be handled internally. I'm not jumping up and down about moving Hermanson into the bullpen, but I am holding out hope that, if used properly, he could be just as valuable out of the pen as he was in the rotation.

Scouting Report on Alfredo Simon

The Giants picked up minor league hurler Alfredo Simon from the Phillies in the Rodriguez/Ledee trade. I don't know anything about Simon, so let's turn to Baseball America to fill in the gaps. Here's a snippet from a BA article featuring comments from Simon's A-ball pitching coach.

"Really, for him it's all about location," Clearwater pitching coach Steve Schrenk said. "He averages 93-94 mph with his fastball; he'll throw it anywhere from 90-95, and now he's locating it better and getting ahead of hitters. He's really gotten better at pitching to both sides of the plate.

"When he was getting behind, he was just throwing the ball right down the middle, and no matter how hard he threw it, guys were catching up. Then the other day he threw just 82 pitches in his (second consecutive) complete game, and he threw about 85 percent fastballs."

Simon improved to 7-9, 3.27 on the season with his third straight complete game and fifth win in his last six decisions. He's allowed just 121 hits in 135 innings while walking 38 and striking out 107.

Simon has grown from a listed 6-foot-4, 215 pounds to about 6-foot-5, 240, according to Schrenk, and maintains his velocity deep into his starts. In his back-to-back shutouts, the last pitch he threw in each game registered 93 mph.

While Simon throws hard, he doesn't have the strikeouts you like to see from a power pitcher. Schrenk said he expects Simon to strike out more hitters as he harnesses the command of his lively fastball and improves his slider and changeup, which are still in the formative stages.

"His other pitches are coming along," Schrenk said. "His slider is doing better. We've got him throwing it a little harder. His fastball is not straight; it moves and sinks, it has some life."

He's starting to dominate this league; the last (four) starts, he's been really good. Maybe if you see one more good start--a stretch of two or three consistent weeks--he could be ready (for a promotion)."

If They Build It...

The financial statements of baseball teams are guarded so closely you'd swear they were Nuclear secrets. But, occasionally we learn bits and pieces of useful information about the Giants financials. In his column on the new proposed stadium for the Yankees, Neil deMause reveals this interesting detail of the most recent collective bargaining agreement:

The Yankees would foot the bill for the stadium itself, though, a remarkable turnaround from earlier plans to have the city kick in at least half of the cost. How will they do it? The explanation is buried in a tiny clause hidden deep within MLB's Basic Agreement. According to Article XXIV, Section a(5) of the 2002 collective bargaining agreement, teams must make revenue-sharing payments on all baseball revenue, but can deduct "the 'Stadium Operations Expenses' of each Club, as reported on an annual basis in the Club's FIQ [Financial Information Questionnaire]."

That's all it says. But according to baseball sources, teams have been quietly allowed to count stadium construction debt as "stadium operations expenses," thus claiming it as a deduction against revenue sharing.

So, do the Giants deduct stadium construction debt from their revenue sharing payout ? I e-mailed the author of the column that very question and he confirmed that, to the best of his knowledge, the Giants do indeed deduct these "stadium operations expenses" from their revenue sharing payments. In fact, deMause estimates that this one line in the 2002 CBA reduces the Giants annual revenue sharing payout by $8 million a year.

Hmm...make of this what you may, but between the new local TV deal, the constant sell outs, the increase in ticket prices, the decrease in payroll, and now news of this bit of creative accounting, something tells me that the Giants really aren't going to lose $15 million this year...

Posted 8:56 PM by Doug

Stand Pat Sabean

The trading deadline has come and gone and the Giants didn't do much of anything. As a Giants fan who obsesses over mid season trades, I feel like I've missed my Christmas. Well, the Giants did make one move - trading away Felix Rodriguez to acquire Ricky Ledee and minor leaguer Alfredo Simon. I like it. Ledee, a left-handed platoon outfielder, is a nice acquisition - his .305 EqA with the Phillies this year would rank him as the second most productive hitter on the Giants. More importantly, by trading away Frod, the Giants are no longer responsible for the $3.15MM owed to him next year. Now, Sabean may use this money to sign Shane Halter to a 3-year deal, but at least in theory, the Giants can spend this money on a good player, rather than a hard-headed, mediocre middle reliever.

Part of me wants to believe that clearing $3 million out of the way is a signal that the Giants are quietly preparing to make a splash signing or two in the off season. But then I remembered that Skippy Von Cheap is the owner of the team and that the allegedly cash strapped Giants will probably cut payroll again in the off season.

This upcoming winter will prove once and for all if the current Giants management is at all interested in bringing home a World Series trophy to San Francisco or if they're merely content with being "competitive." If a winter of inactivity and cost cutting gave rise to the lunatic fringe, then two winters in a row of that bullshit could lead to the birth of the homicidal fellowship.

***

This past Saturday night the Giants celebrated the anniversary of their last World Series Championship. Not that I need to remind anyone reading this site what year said championship was won, but as the scoreboard pointed out - On the Waterfront was winning Oscars, Sports Illustrated was in its infancy, Oprah was in diapers, and Eisenhower was President the last time the Giants won the Fall Classic. Fast forward 5 decades later and the Giants have the best hitter since Ted Williams as the centerpiece of their offense. They have a legitimate ace at the front of the rotation. They have a good leadoff hitter, a very capable manager, and some other useful parts. And between the Nen and Neifi albatrosses, the Christiansen, Snow, Grissom, Tomko and Hermanson contracts that expire at year end, they'll have a whole lot of money coming off the books that can be spent to improve the team.

Go for it, Magowan. Is that too much to ask for?

Posted 6:34 PM by Doug

The Roundup

In years past, the Giants have used the July 31st trade deadline to bring a well needed infusion of talent for the stretch run. Between Andres Galarraga, Kenny Lofton, Ellis Burks, Jason Schmidt, Brian Johnson, and Roberto Hernandez, to name a few, the Giants management has consistently given the team an annual boost for last couple months of the season.

Things may be different this year. Revenue sharing has lead to a greater parity in baseball, meaning there are fewer sellers at the trade deadline market this year than in years past. Further complicating matters for the Giants is the fact that two of the sellers, Arizona and Colorado, reside in the Giants division. Generally speaking, teams don't like to trade their useful players to division rivals. Interestingly enough, some of the players the Giants are interested in are in the NL West. Several different sources have indicated that SF is interested in Steve Finley, with Danny Bautista another possibility. Reportedly, the twentysevenandahalfbacks have asked for either Matthew Cain or Merkin Valdez in exchange for Finley.

The Giants have publicly stated that they are not interested in trading either of their two top prospects, Cain and Valdez. They've even gone so far as to screen test the two phenoms for a baseball inspired remake of The Untouchables. The role of Eliot Ness will be played by Brian Sabean. Anyway, the Giants' reluctance to part with their two top picks is yet another reason not to expect a blockbuster on July 31st. Beyond Cain and Valdez the Giants prospect cupboard is pretty bare.

Hanging onto Cain is a wise move in my opinion. While I consider myself a disciple of the There is No Such Thing as a Pitching Prospect school of thinking, and generally don't shed any tears when a minor league pitcher is dealt for a useful major leaguer, Cain has showed this year that he isn't just a run of the mill pitching prospect. Nineteen year-olds who make waves in AA aren't exactly a dime a dozen. The newly minted third best pitching prospect in all of baseball should command more than just a two month rental of a useful player on the trade market. If I ran the Giants, I'd hang onto him unless I could use him as part of a package to land a big time player.

The only big time player on the market, (assuming Beltran isn't dealt again) is Randy Johnson. Despite the pleas of Skip Bayless and despite Phil Rogers' report that the Giants are "stalking" Johnson, its very unlikely that RJ will be traded to the Giants, in my humble opinion. The D-Backs would face a PR disaster if they traded the face of their franchise and their first Hall of Famer to a divison rival. Peter McCheapskate isn't likely to pick up his bar tab, let alone over $20MM of RJ's contract over the next year and two months. And who knows if Johnson would even approve a trade to SF in the first place. From the land of hypotheticals -- if Arizona would trade Johnson for Cain and Valdez, I'd pull the trigger on the trade in a heartbeat if I were the Giants. Flags fly forever.

So, with the belief that the Giants will not part with their top prospects, and therefore not land a big player, the Giants will probably pick up a bullpen guy and possibly a bench player.

The Giants are among the teams that have been scouting the Pirates in recent days. Joe Roderick quotes two sources who say that SF is interested in Jose Mesa. Mesa is having a good year as the Pirates closer, a 2.35 ERA and 28 saves, although his peripherals aren't as good as his ERA would suggest (1.35 WHIP, 26 Ks in 42 IP). The trouble with a potential deal for Mesa is that he doesn't want to pitch in SF. If he doesn't want to be here, then there's no point in acquiring him.

Another interesting option at the closer's spot is Baltimore's Jorge Julio. Although 190 career IP isn't the biggest sample size in the world, it's worth noting that Julio is a bit better on the road than he is at Camden Yards. For his career, he has a 4.25 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP at home and a 2.62 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP on the road.

After all of the gossip and rumors about possible acquisitions, I'd bet that Sabean will end up trading for someone who is completely off the radar screen - like maybe another middle infielder. As part of their plan to eventually acquire every shortstop in organized baseball, John Shea reports that the Giants are interested in Orlando Cabrera, and Lawrence Rocca notes that Sabean has allegedly tried to trade Felix Rodriguez for Cabrera, although Joe Roderick discounts these rumors.

Another off the radar screen possibility is Larry Walker. Will Carroll reports that the Giants have inquired about Larry Walker, although SF has yet to make an offer. Walker's contract status and constant questions about his health make him a longshot to be traded to SF.

Again, I think the Giants will probably end up trading for a reliever and a bench player. With Tomko and Hermanson pitching well of late, I believe the Giants are content to stand pat with their current rotation. My official predicition is that they'll pick up a reliever from the Pirates (either Mesa or Meadows) and either Matt Stairs or Frank Catalonotto. Then again, in true Sabean stealth fashion, the Giants will probably wind up with someone who has yet to be rumored to be headed to San Francisco.

Editor's Note: After endlessly blogging about the July 31st trade deadline, it only makes sense that I'll be on vacation until the first week of August and unable to blog until then. In the meantime, if you're at Petco Park or San Diego's Gaslamp District next week and see some yahoo in a Lunatic Fringe shirt running amok, make sure to say hello.

News and Notes...

...Giants trainer Stan Conte will participate in an online chat at Baseball Prospectus next Tuesday at 11AM Pacific Time...
***
...Is Brett Tomko finally reaching his potential? For years, Tomko was regarded as a can't miss prospect. However, throughout his career, the only thing he wasn't missing was the sweet spot of opponents' bats. Since returning from the DL, Tomko has been very effective - consistently pitching into the late innings and allowing two or fewer runs in five of his six starts. As recently as a month ago, it was assumed that Tomko would not be back next year. The Giants hold a team option on Tomko for next season. If he continues to pitch well for the rest of the season, Tomko will be back for 2005...
***
...Once again, hats off to legendary Giants broadcaster Lon Simmons who was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame this weekend. As Lon has mentioned many times, one of the truly rewarding aspects of being enshrined in the Hall of Fame is that he'll be reunited once again with his dear friend and fellow Hall of Famer Russ Hodges...