A blog featuring the musings of a San Francisco Giants fan living trapped in LA.
Send Me E-mail
Other Giants Blogs
McCovey Chronicles
El Lefty Malo
Only Baseball Matters
Skaldheim
Arbizu.org
E.K. Sports
Jay's Giants Blog
Across the Seams
Trapped in LA
Orange and Black Baseball
Obsessive Giants Complusive
Giants Cove
Mays Field
San Fran Sports Man
Give 'em Some Stankeye!
Giants Win
BarryBonds.com
Words of Wisdom
"A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings" -- Earl Wilson
Westwood Blues Testimonials
"Either you graduated from the Muser Hollywood Upstairs Baseball
College or you're not a Giants fan." - Danny
"Ding ding ding. You win the wooden donut." - "Crispix Attacks"
"If there's only one good thing to come out of Baseball Primer, it's
the remarkable Joe Morgan mimicry skills, polished to a frighteningly
accurate degree, by a handful of Primates. Creepy." - SKP
"Why the Neifi hate?!?" - Tom
![[Powered by Blogger]](http://buttons.blogger.com/bloggerbutton1.gif){kind=small}
Sunday, December 21, 2003
Non-Tender Possibilities
The list of non-tenders is out and a few players look like good fits with the Giants. I'm not entirely satisfied with the RF situation, but I think the Giants' money would be better spent on the pitching staff. Here are some possibilities:
* Jason Johnson
Per Peter Gammons, the Giants were interested in acquiring Johnson as part of the Sidney Ponson trade. He put up decent numbers in 2003 despite allowing a boatload of baserunners (a WHIP of 1.56). Pac Bell could help him cut down on his gopherballs (22 HR allowed in 189 IP).
* Orlando Hernandez
According to the Sun-Sentinel, the Giants are interested in signing Hernandez. El Duque missed all of last season with an injury, so his health is a big question mark. His track record of post season success makes him an attractive option.
* Jay Payton
If the Giants didn't have 114 outfielders under contract next season, Payton would be a great option. The Giants should address their shaky pitching staff before adding more outfielders. By the way, why the heck did the Rockies get rid of him?
* Braden Looper
If the Giants are looking to add another arm in the bullpen, Looper would a good option. He was very effective for the Marlins in the first half of the season and in the playoffs.
Don't Worry...About a Thing...
True to form, this week Glenn Dickey trotted out his bi-monthly Chicken Little column. In this edition, Dickey boldly declared the following about the 2004 Giants:
This is an old team, vulnerable to injuries, with uncertain pitching and inconsistent hitting...
Next year will be worse.
The Giants' strategy the past six years has been to keep the nucleus of the team together and bring in, through trades and free agency, veterans who can supplement them. The strategy worked well for five years, but it is bankrupt now.
No wait, that was actually Glenn's circa August 2002 Chicken Little column. Ahh, here it is:
The cracks in the foundation of the aging empire are beginning to show. Julius Caesar is a year older, his chariot is a step slower, and the farm system is barren. Brace yourselves, for the end is near.
No, that's not it either. I didn't realize Glenn was that old. Anyway, you can read Glenn's December 2003 doomsday banter here.
In an effort to combat the undying punditry pessimism over the 2004 Giants, I humbly submit five reasons to be optimistic about 2004.
1) Barry Bonds is Good
About this time of year, various naysayers claim that one of the reasons the Giants will fall off a cliff is that Barry Bonds' career path will switch into decline mode. It's like the winter version of the swallows returning to Capistrano. As the leaves begin to fall, and the temperature drops, without fail, some pundit will declare that this is the year that Bonds will finally decline.
Would it be surprising if Bonds falls off a cliff? Probably not. Should we expect it? Well, let me put it this way - Barry Bonds is the greatest hitter since Ted Williams. Arguably, he is one of the two or three greatest players to ever put on a uniform. The man wears an S across his chest. Would you bet against him?
2) Jason Schmidt is Good
In 2003, Jason Schmidt made the mid career transformation from good-pitcher-with-great-stuff to great-pitcher-with-great-stuff. For whatever reason, it took Schmidt a few years to put everything together. Schmidt's 2003 was not a fluke.
3) Robb Nen Will be Back
Is he healthy? Will he be like the Robb Nen of old? I don't know. No one knows. One of the few things we do know about Nen's situation is this: Curt Schilling had a similar surgery a few years ago. He turned out to be ok.
4) This is Not the Final Roster
What is particularly annoying about all of the December hand wringing is that the Opening Day roster is not set. If the Giants do nothing else this off season except add Scott Erickson, or *shudder* Darren Oliver, then some of the complaining will be justified. And, rest assured, I will use this space to tear the ownership and the front office a new orifice if they sit on their hands. Until then, let's wait to see how the offseason and even Spring Training play out before we rush to judgment.
More importantly, I guarantee that the Giants team as of today will not be the team taking the field on August 1st. If the Giants are in the hunt, Sabes will make a deadline trade to bolster the team. He always does.
5) The Opposition
Ok, it's probably unfair to be evaluating the Dodgers, D-Backs, and Pads at this point in the off season; their rosters are not set either. Having said that, even if one of those teams were to land a Maddux or even a *gasp* Vlad, I still don't see any opposing team running away with a division crown.
Keep in mind that the Giants won the West by 15 games last season. 15 games is a lot of ground to make up in one off season. The Pod People, a trendy pick to win the West in 2004, finished a whopping 36 and a half games out of first last season.
So buck up Giants fans. Keep your head up...and keep your blood in your head and keep your feet on the ground...
Off Topic: Westwood Joy
One of the few rewarding things about living in LA is that I get to witness the Giants visit Chavez Ravine and beat the living crap out of the Dodgers. This year alone I saw SF blow out LA on three separate occasions. I was also a witness to a Superman home run, Todd Linden's moonshot into the Loge Section, and most impressively, Neifi's two walk performance. Good times.
As enjoyable as those moments were, they may not measure up to the events that unfolded this Wednesday night in Westwood:
Let's step back for a moment and have our story begin in the winter of 1970, when the UCLA men's basketball team defeated UCSB. UCLA would go on to win 88 consecutive games, and under coach John Wooden, would win 10 NCAA championships in twelve years, including seven in a row. UCLA basketball of the 60s and early 70s is considered by many to be one of the great dynasties in sports history.
Times have changed. UCLA is coming off a very disappointing season where they failed to make the NCAA tournament. What was once the center of the college basketball universe is now the home of an also ran.
On this night, this past Wednesday, the historic Pauley Pavillion was only about 2/3 full as fans gathered to watch UCLA battle the Gauchos of UCSB.
The two teams traded baskets for much of the first half and UCLA went to the locker room at halftime with a slim lead. Let's fast forward to the closing minutes of the game.
UCLA had a one point lead with less than a minute to play. Santa Barbara brought the ball down the court and Chrisman Oliver of the Gauchos put up a tough jumper at the top of the key. The ball glanced off the rim when Junior forward Casey Cook collected the offensive rebound and was promptly hammered in the act of shooting.
His team down by one, the mighty Casey stepped to the free throw line, ice water running through his veins. Swish. Tie game.
One more for the lead. Cook promptly nailed the second free throw, sending the "loud and loyal" UCSB partisans into a frenzy.
UCLA inbounded the ball with 17 seconds remaining. The Gauchos fans' chants of "defense" raining down from the 300 level suppressed the ghosts of Wooden, Alcindor, Hazard, and Walton as Bruins guard Cedric Bozeman drove to the hoop and hoisted up a prayer. The ball rimmed in and out of the cylinder. There was a scramble for the ball. It rolled out of bounds, last touched by the Gauchos. The game clock read 2.4 seconds.
The Bruins had one final chance. Santa Barbara switched to man-to-man as the Bruins inbounded the ball. Cedric Bozeman's errant inbounds pass was stolen by Casey Cook. Falling out of bounds, Cook sent the ball bouncing harmlessly down the court. The horn sounded.
We beat UCLA.
The rafters that hold the Bruins' 11 NCAA Championship banners were now echoing with the chants of:
Ole! Ole! Ole! Ole!
Gauchos! Gauchos!
UCSB 61
UCLA 60
The list of non-tenders is out and a few players look like good fits with the Giants. I'm not entirely satisfied with the RF situation, but I think the Giants' money would be better spent on the pitching staff. Here are some possibilities:
* Jason Johnson
Per Peter Gammons, the Giants were interested in acquiring Johnson as part of the Sidney Ponson trade. He put up decent numbers in 2003 despite allowing a boatload of baserunners (a WHIP of 1.56). Pac Bell could help him cut down on his gopherballs (22 HR allowed in 189 IP).
* Orlando Hernandez
According to the Sun-Sentinel, the Giants are interested in signing Hernandez. El Duque missed all of last season with an injury, so his health is a big question mark. His track record of post season success makes him an attractive option.
* Jay Payton
If the Giants didn't have 114 outfielders under contract next season, Payton would be a great option. The Giants should address their shaky pitching staff before adding more outfielders. By the way, why the heck did the Rockies get rid of him?
* Braden Looper
If the Giants are looking to add another arm in the bullpen, Looper would a good option. He was very effective for the Marlins in the first half of the season and in the playoffs.
Don't Worry...About a Thing...
True to form, this week Glenn Dickey trotted out his bi-monthly Chicken Little column. In this edition, Dickey boldly declared the following about the 2004 Giants:
This is an old team, vulnerable to injuries, with uncertain pitching and inconsistent hitting...
Next year will be worse.
The Giants' strategy the past six years has been to keep the nucleus of the team together and bring in, through trades and free agency, veterans who can supplement them. The strategy worked well for five years, but it is bankrupt now.
No wait, that was actually Glenn's circa August 2002 Chicken Little column. Ahh, here it is:
The cracks in the foundation of the aging empire are beginning to show. Julius Caesar is a year older, his chariot is a step slower, and the farm system is barren. Brace yourselves, for the end is near.
No, that's not it either. I didn't realize Glenn was that old. Anyway, you can read Glenn's December 2003 doomsday banter here.
In an effort to combat the undying punditry pessimism over the 2004 Giants, I humbly submit five reasons to be optimistic about 2004.
1) Barry Bonds is Good
About this time of year, various naysayers claim that one of the reasons the Giants will fall off a cliff is that Barry Bonds' career path will switch into decline mode. It's like the winter version of the swallows returning to Capistrano. As the leaves begin to fall, and the temperature drops, without fail, some pundit will declare that this is the year that Bonds will finally decline.
Would it be surprising if Bonds falls off a cliff? Probably not. Should we expect it? Well, let me put it this way - Barry Bonds is the greatest hitter since Ted Williams. Arguably, he is one of the two or three greatest players to ever put on a uniform. The man wears an S across his chest. Would you bet against him?
2) Jason Schmidt is Good
In 2003, Jason Schmidt made the mid career transformation from good-pitcher-with-great-stuff to great-pitcher-with-great-stuff. For whatever reason, it took Schmidt a few years to put everything together. Schmidt's 2003 was not a fluke.
3) Robb Nen Will be Back
Is he healthy? Will he be like the Robb Nen of old? I don't know. No one knows. One of the few things we do know about Nen's situation is this: Curt Schilling had a similar surgery a few years ago. He turned out to be ok.
4) This is Not the Final Roster
What is particularly annoying about all of the December hand wringing is that the Opening Day roster is not set. If the Giants do nothing else this off season except add Scott Erickson, or *shudder* Darren Oliver, then some of the complaining will be justified. And, rest assured, I will use this space to tear the ownership and the front office a new orifice if they sit on their hands. Until then, let's wait to see how the offseason and even Spring Training play out before we rush to judgment.
More importantly, I guarantee that the Giants team as of today will not be the team taking the field on August 1st. If the Giants are in the hunt, Sabes will make a deadline trade to bolster the team. He always does.
5) The Opposition
Ok, it's probably unfair to be evaluating the Dodgers, D-Backs, and Pads at this point in the off season; their rosters are not set either. Having said that, even if one of those teams were to land a Maddux or even a *gasp* Vlad, I still don't see any opposing team running away with a division crown.
Keep in mind that the Giants won the West by 15 games last season. 15 games is a lot of ground to make up in one off season. The Pod People, a trendy pick to win the West in 2004, finished a whopping 36 and a half games out of first last season.
So buck up Giants fans. Keep your head up...and keep your blood in your head and keep your feet on the ground...
Off Topic: Westwood Joy
One of the few rewarding things about living in LA is that I get to witness the Giants visit Chavez Ravine and beat the living crap out of the Dodgers. This year alone I saw SF blow out LA on three separate occasions. I was also a witness to a Superman home run, Todd Linden's moonshot into the Loge Section, and most impressively, Neifi's two walk performance. Good times.
As enjoyable as those moments were, they may not measure up to the events that unfolded this Wednesday night in Westwood:
Let's step back for a moment and have our story begin in the winter of 1970, when the UCLA men's basketball team defeated UCSB. UCLA would go on to win 88 consecutive games, and under coach John Wooden, would win 10 NCAA championships in twelve years, including seven in a row. UCLA basketball of the 60s and early 70s is considered by many to be one of the great dynasties in sports history.
Times have changed. UCLA is coming off a very disappointing season where they failed to make the NCAA tournament. What was once the center of the college basketball universe is now the home of an also ran.
On this night, this past Wednesday, the historic Pauley Pavillion was only about 2/3 full as fans gathered to watch UCLA battle the Gauchos of UCSB.
The two teams traded baskets for much of the first half and UCLA went to the locker room at halftime with a slim lead. Let's fast forward to the closing minutes of the game.
UCLA had a one point lead with less than a minute to play. Santa Barbara brought the ball down the court and Chrisman Oliver of the Gauchos put up a tough jumper at the top of the key. The ball glanced off the rim when Junior forward Casey Cook collected the offensive rebound and was promptly hammered in the act of shooting.
His team down by one, the mighty Casey stepped to the free throw line, ice water running through his veins. Swish. Tie game.
One more for the lead. Cook promptly nailed the second free throw, sending the "loud and loyal" UCSB partisans into a frenzy.
UCLA inbounded the ball with 17 seconds remaining. The Gauchos fans' chants of "defense" raining down from the 300 level suppressed the ghosts of Wooden, Alcindor, Hazard, and Walton as Bruins guard Cedric Bozeman drove to the hoop and hoisted up a prayer. The ball rimmed in and out of the cylinder. There was a scramble for the ball. It rolled out of bounds, last touched by the Gauchos. The game clock read 2.4 seconds.
The Bruins had one final chance. Santa Barbara switched to man-to-man as the Bruins inbounded the ball. Cedric Bozeman's errant inbounds pass was stolen by Casey Cook. Falling out of bounds, Cook sent the ball bouncing harmlessly down the court. The horn sounded.
We beat UCLA.
The rafters that hold the Bruins' 11 NCAA Championship banners were now echoing with the chants of:
Ole! Ole! Ole! Ole!
Gauchos! Gauchos!
UCSB 61
UCLA 60
|
Monday, December 15, 2003
The College of Right Fielders
In the three years of the post Ellis Burks era, the SF Giants’ RF situation has been a revolving door of mediocrity. In comes Armando Rios, who was replaced by Jon Vander Wal, who was replaced by Reggie Sanders, who was replaced by Jose Cruz, Jr.
This season the Giants are taking a different approach. Instead of merely one average right fielder, they have an entire menu of right field passability to choose from – Jeffrey Hammonds, Michael Tucker, Tony Torcato, Pedro Feliz, Jason Ellison, Carlos Valderama, Deivis/Francisco Santos, Todd Linden, Tracy Jones, Cory Snyder, me, a bag lady from UN Plaza, and now, Dustan Mohr.
Rather than the revolving door method, the Giants are now employing a garage door method of roster construction – all of these parts won’t fit through a revolving door, so just haul all of the thirteen aforementioned options through the garage door and dump them out. Then let the baseball gods sort through the mess and perhaps one of the options, or maybe a combination of a few of them, is bound to be decent. Then, have a garage sale and sell off some superfluous parts. A “work in progress” indeed.
The Giants acquired Dustan Mohr from the Twins for a PTBNL. Rotoworld speculated that the PTBNL is someone who is not currently on the Giants’ 40 man roster.
Mohr is a somewhat useful backup outfielder. Last season he posted a .250/.314/.399 line. Looking deeper into his stats, Mohr has an odd home/road split. For his career, Mohr hit just .231/.299/.349 at home, while hitting .286/.339/.467 away from the stale confines of the Homerdome.
Assuming the PTBNL is nothing more than a mid level prospect, this is a pretty good deal. The best part about acquiring Mohr is a) Mohr is inexpensive and b) This means the Giants will not overpay for Jeromy Burnitz. I was very fearful that Sabean's “rightfield is a work in progress” comment was front-office-speak for “we’re going to pay Jeromy Burnitz about twice as much as he’s worth. And we’re going to sign him for three years.” Dustan, welcome aboard, and treat yourself to a smattering of faint praise.
The Tucker Postmortem
I didn’t think this was possible, but the Michael Tucker signing/draft pick donation project looks even worse than it did last week. One of the few positive spins on the deal was that Tucker would just be a backup; occasionally spelling Marquis Grissom against righties and taking Jeffrey Hammonds’ role of fourth outfielder when Hammonds breaks his elbow in a rolling pin accident and is subsequently lost for the season. As is stands now, with no everyday right fielder, Michael Tucker should receive a fair amount of playing time.
Of course, it’s possible that Todd Linden will hit .400 in AAA, get called up, force his way into the starting lineup, win the rookie of the year, and send Tucker to the bench. Likewise, it’s possible that Neifi Perez could be traded straight up for Aubrey Huff. Welcome to the Wait Until Next Year Bar and Grill. Step inside, have a few drinks and all of your 2004 wishcasting will be deemed “possible.” Of course, I should point out that J.R. Phillips is the bartender.
Three Dotted Randomness
…Rumor has it that the Giants may make a run at Greg Maddux. On the radio last week, Peter Gammons said the Giants had “expressed interest” in Maddux. Josh Succon also reports that the Giants may be interested in Maddux. Take these rumors with a grain of salt – Maddux is a Scott Boras client. Scott Boras is the master of floating rumors, inventing competing offers, and using “mystery teams” in an effort to drive up bidding for his clients. That said, I now see Maddux as a possibility for the Giants. Maddux’s destination list is growing thin, and if Sabean is able to dump a bit of salary, the Giants just might swoop in and get Maddux…
***
…With an OPS of .639, Darren Oliver posted a higher OPS last season than the Giants 2004 Opening Day Shortstop, Neifi Perez (.632)…
***
…I’m not sure why, but I got a kick out of this line from Ken Rosenthal’s latest: Rockies 3B Vinny Castilla will be paid $500,000 next season, then receive annual loans of $100,000 without interest from 2015 to 2030. "The world might not even be around by then," one agent says, "but the Expos will still be in Montreal and Bud (Selig) will still be commissioner."
I’ll take that a step further, and guarantee that in 2030 the Giants will have a pedestrian, one year stop gap playing right field.
In the three years of the post Ellis Burks era, the SF Giants’ RF situation has been a revolving door of mediocrity. In comes Armando Rios, who was replaced by Jon Vander Wal, who was replaced by Reggie Sanders, who was replaced by Jose Cruz, Jr.
This season the Giants are taking a different approach. Instead of merely one average right fielder, they have an entire menu of right field passability to choose from – Jeffrey Hammonds, Michael Tucker, Tony Torcato, Pedro Feliz, Jason Ellison, Carlos Valderama, Deivis/Francisco Santos, Todd Linden, Tracy Jones, Cory Snyder, me, a bag lady from UN Plaza, and now, Dustan Mohr.
Rather than the revolving door method, the Giants are now employing a garage door method of roster construction – all of these parts won’t fit through a revolving door, so just haul all of the thirteen aforementioned options through the garage door and dump them out. Then let the baseball gods sort through the mess and perhaps one of the options, or maybe a combination of a few of them, is bound to be decent. Then, have a garage sale and sell off some superfluous parts. A “work in progress” indeed.
The Giants acquired Dustan Mohr from the Twins for a PTBNL. Rotoworld speculated that the PTBNL is someone who is not currently on the Giants’ 40 man roster.
Mohr is a somewhat useful backup outfielder. Last season he posted a .250/.314/.399 line. Looking deeper into his stats, Mohr has an odd home/road split. For his career, Mohr hit just .231/.299/.349 at home, while hitting .286/.339/.467 away from the stale confines of the Homerdome.
Assuming the PTBNL is nothing more than a mid level prospect, this is a pretty good deal. The best part about acquiring Mohr is a) Mohr is inexpensive and b) This means the Giants will not overpay for Jeromy Burnitz. I was very fearful that Sabean's “rightfield is a work in progress” comment was front-office-speak for “we’re going to pay Jeromy Burnitz about twice as much as he’s worth. And we’re going to sign him for three years.” Dustan, welcome aboard, and treat yourself to a smattering of faint praise.
The Tucker Postmortem
I didn’t think this was possible, but the Michael Tucker signing/draft pick donation project looks even worse than it did last week. One of the few positive spins on the deal was that Tucker would just be a backup; occasionally spelling Marquis Grissom against righties and taking Jeffrey Hammonds’ role of fourth outfielder when Hammonds breaks his elbow in a rolling pin accident and is subsequently lost for the season. As is stands now, with no everyday right fielder, Michael Tucker should receive a fair amount of playing time.
Of course, it’s possible that Todd Linden will hit .400 in AAA, get called up, force his way into the starting lineup, win the rookie of the year, and send Tucker to the bench. Likewise, it’s possible that Neifi Perez could be traded straight up for Aubrey Huff. Welcome to the Wait Until Next Year Bar and Grill. Step inside, have a few drinks and all of your 2004 wishcasting will be deemed “possible.” Of course, I should point out that J.R. Phillips is the bartender.
Three Dotted Randomness
…Rumor has it that the Giants may make a run at Greg Maddux. On the radio last week, Peter Gammons said the Giants had “expressed interest” in Maddux. Josh Succon also reports that the Giants may be interested in Maddux. Take these rumors with a grain of salt – Maddux is a Scott Boras client. Scott Boras is the master of floating rumors, inventing competing offers, and using “mystery teams” in an effort to drive up bidding for his clients. That said, I now see Maddux as a possibility for the Giants. Maddux’s destination list is growing thin, and if Sabean is able to dump a bit of salary, the Giants just might swoop in and get Maddux…
***
…With an OPS of .639, Darren Oliver posted a higher OPS last season than the Giants 2004 Opening Day Shortstop, Neifi Perez (.632)…
***
…I’m not sure why, but I got a kick out of this line from Ken Rosenthal’s latest: Rockies 3B Vinny Castilla will be paid $500,000 next season, then receive annual loans of $100,000 without interest from 2015 to 2030. "The world might not even be around by then," one agent says, "but the Expos will still be in Montreal and Bud (Selig) will still be commissioner."
I’ll take that a step further, and guarantee that in 2030 the Giants will have a pedestrian, one year stop gap playing right field.
|
Monday, December 08, 2003
Brian Sabean: “I Don’t Give a Fuck About Draft Picks.”
The most "interesting" signing of the offseason
In a nutshell, the Tucker signing is exactly why Brian Sabean should not be mentioned in the same breath as the elite GMs in the game. Every off season Sabean will wow us with a terrific, gutsy move. This off season it was trading for AJ; last season it was signing Durham. But, at the same time, he’ll counteract his brilliant moves by occasionally doing nonsensical stuff that no one else in baseball would do. Last year it was signing Neifi Perez to a multiyear deal; this year it was handing away a draft pick for the privilege of signing Michael Tucker.
I don’t have a problem with signing Michael Tucker per se. He’s a left-handed hitter who can play all three outfield positions. What’s wrong with the deal then? Let me count the ways.
* When evaluating a player who plays in an extreme hitters’ park, his park adjusted stats are a good method to evaluate his performance. Tucker’s OPS+ the previous two seasons was 83 and 92 (100 being league average), while his EqA the past two seasons was .254 and .250 (.260 being league average). For a backup, those numbers aren't embarrassing (although that’s actually a dropoff from Marvin Benard’s previous two healthy seasons). For a potential starter, that’s scary. I would be thrilled if Tucker could hit .250/.320/.400 for the Giants, but that’s probably asking too much.
* The KC Star confirms that there were exactly zero other teams in the Michael Tucker Sweepstakes™, so overpaying him and offering a multiyear deal makes no sense.
* The market is already flooded with right field types. There will be even more light hitting right fielders on the market after December 20th when the next batch of non-tenders is announced. The Giants could’ve waited and possibly found a bargain to patrol RF.
* This isn’t Tucker’s fault, but Michael Tucker is yet another sharp object that Felipe Alou can play with. If Tucker ever hits directly in front of, or directly behind Barry Bonds, I will scream.
* Michael Tucker on his 2003 season: "The numbers I was putting up, if you project them, would be outstanding numbers," Tucker said.
Umm, no. Michael, if by “numbers” you mean suck points in Hacking Mass, then yes, those would be outstanding numbers. Speaking as a proud owner of Michael Tucker in Hacking Mass, I was disappointed that Tucker was injured for a good part of the season and was only able to accumulate 14 suck points.
* On a positive note, Tucker isn’t a bad option against RHP. His career OPS of .786 against righties is far from embarrassing. However, he should not be allowed to face left-handed pitching. Ever.
* Gift wrapping a first round draft pick to the Royals was the icing on the cake. For reasons best kept to himself, Brian Sabean decided to sign Tucker just hours before the arbitration deadline, effectively flushing the Giants’ first round pick down the toilet.
Now, I don’t mean to overstate the importance of a first round pick in baseball. This isn’t the NFL or even the NBA we’re talking about. In fact, a late first round pick is more likely to flame out and be a million dollar sunk cost than become a regular contributor to the big league roster. Having said that, Sabean is the master of taking an A-ball question mark and turning him into a proven commodity via the trade market. It's a hell of a lot easier to get good trade value for a minor league question mark who can throw 95 (a first round pick) than a minor league question mark who tops out at 90. So, why take away a bullet from Sabes' gun?
We know that there were no other teams interested in Tucker and we know that the Royals stated publicly that they no intention of offering Tucker arbitration, so Sabean’s options were as follows:
Option A) Sign Michael Tucker on December 8th; keep your first round pick.
Option B) Sign Michael Tucker on December 7th; surrender your first round pick.
For whatever reason, the Giants chose Option B. For all intents and purposes, the Giants did not want a first round pick in the 2004 draft.
* The Verdict: While not a particularly good idea, the Tucker signing is not the end of the world. However, it's part of a disturbing pattern of overpaying for interchangable parts. There is a reason that Neifi Perez was placed on waivers and went unclaimed by nearly every team in the big leagues. There is a reason that Michael Tucker didn't draw an offer from another team. Paying either of them more than a million bucks for their very replaceable services is beyond silly. It's Cam Bonifaynian.
The Other Signings/Non Signings
Matt Herges: 2 years/$2.5MM - What Herges lacks in velocity he more than makes up for in control and movement. He quietly put together an excellent year for the Giants. I'm glad to see him back for a couple of years.
Dustin Hermanson: 1 Year/800k plus incentives - Hermanson blames misuse for his struggles with Cardinals, saying he's better suited to be a starter than a middle reliever. He may be blowing smoke in the hopes of a bigger role (and therefore bigger payday), but I'll take his word for it. He pitched well in a few spot starts with the Giants. Hey, why not?
Jeffrey Hammonds 1 Year/$1MM plus incentives - a million dollars guaranteed is a bit much for a guy who is so injury prone that he may break both of his ankles trying to open a pickle jar. But, the Giants could do a whole lot worse than giving Hammonds a million bucks, and by signing Michael Tucker to a multiyear deal, they did exactly that.
JT Snow 1 Year/$1.5MM vesting option for 2005 - Sure, I'd rather see a first baseman with some pop. Unfortunately, the Giants were unable to land Sexson, Lee, or Johnson. Other than Rafael Palmeiro, Snow was the best option available.
Kudos to JT for sticking with the Giants. He probably could've eeked out another couple hundred grand from another team. Taking a slightly below market value contract to stay with the Giants won him points in my book.
Andres Galarraga - the Giants need a lefty masher who plays first base. Galarraga would've been content with a league minimum deal. So what do the Giants do? They hand the first base platoon spot to Pedro Feliz, who is less effective against southpaws than Galarraga and will cost at least twice as much. Thumbs down.
The Rumor Mill
At the risk of having this site devolve into an e-knitting circle of sorts, I humbly offer the lastest juicy bits of gossip. I'll add the requisite disclaimer that these are just rumors and therefore are not necessarily likely to actually happen.
* The Neifi to the Rockies trade is DOA. Get a load of this. From the Rocky Mountain News:
It's unlikely Neifi Perez will return, because the San Francisco Giants want the Rockies to take back more of his $2.75 million salary than they're prepared for and want a premium prospect from the Rockies as well.
One of these days, the Giants front office will wake up and realize that Neifi Perez is not a valuable commodity. He is not worth a multiyear multimillion dollar contract on the free agent market and he sure as hell is not worth a "premium prospect" on the trade market.
Incidentally, the Rockies are now looking at Deivi Cruz to fill their shortstop hole; one of the few options that actually makes reacquiring Neifi sound like a good idea. Neither of them can hit, but at least Neifi can play defense.
* In other Neifi related news, it appears Neifi will be "earning" $3.25MM this season, not $2.75MM. In their infinte wisdom, the Giants brain trust included playing time incentives which will be easy for Neifi to reach if he plays everyday. If anything, Neifi should have playing time disincentives - the more he plays, the more he should be forced to give back to the Giants. Neifi does much more damage to the Giants by playing everyday than he would as a backup.
* The Giants are apparently interested in acquiring Darren Oliver. Paying $2MM to add Oliver to the rotation makes so little sense that I fully expect it to happen.
I'm fearful that the Giants will place themselves in the same rotation trap they put themselves in last off season. The Giants believe that left handed pitchers fare better in Pac Bell Park and will therefore go out of their way to get one. Whatever supposed advantage a lefty has in Pac Bell is pissed away if the lefty can't get anyone out. Such was the lesson of one Damian Moss.
Moreover, giving two million bucks to Darren Oliver would be another example of, all together now, overpaying for interchangeable parts. Not that I agree with the premise of adding a lefty to the rotation at all costs, but why bother paying Oliver when Chad Zerbe or an inexperienced Noah Lowry can be equally as bad for a fraction of the cost?
The good news is that Sabean has denied offering Oliver a formal offer and the sixteenandahalfbacks are reportedly also after Oliver. Arizona's free spending days are supposed to be a thing of the past, but I'd love nothing more than to see Jerry Colangelo go out in one final indulgence of overspending and lock up Oliver to a multiyear deal.
The most "interesting" signing of the offseason
In a nutshell, the Tucker signing is exactly why Brian Sabean should not be mentioned in the same breath as the elite GMs in the game. Every off season Sabean will wow us with a terrific, gutsy move. This off season it was trading for AJ; last season it was signing Durham. But, at the same time, he’ll counteract his brilliant moves by occasionally doing nonsensical stuff that no one else in baseball would do. Last year it was signing Neifi Perez to a multiyear deal; this year it was handing away a draft pick for the privilege of signing Michael Tucker.
I don’t have a problem with signing Michael Tucker per se. He’s a left-handed hitter who can play all three outfield positions. What’s wrong with the deal then? Let me count the ways.
* When evaluating a player who plays in an extreme hitters’ park, his park adjusted stats are a good method to evaluate his performance. Tucker’s OPS+ the previous two seasons was 83 and 92 (100 being league average), while his EqA the past two seasons was .254 and .250 (.260 being league average). For a backup, those numbers aren't embarrassing (although that’s actually a dropoff from Marvin Benard’s previous two healthy seasons). For a potential starter, that’s scary. I would be thrilled if Tucker could hit .250/.320/.400 for the Giants, but that’s probably asking too much.
* The KC Star confirms that there were exactly zero other teams in the Michael Tucker Sweepstakes™, so overpaying him and offering a multiyear deal makes no sense.
* The market is already flooded with right field types. There will be even more light hitting right fielders on the market after December 20th when the next batch of non-tenders is announced. The Giants could’ve waited and possibly found a bargain to patrol RF.
* This isn’t Tucker’s fault, but Michael Tucker is yet another sharp object that Felipe Alou can play with. If Tucker ever hits directly in front of, or directly behind Barry Bonds, I will scream.
* Michael Tucker on his 2003 season: "The numbers I was putting up, if you project them, would be outstanding numbers," Tucker said.
Umm, no. Michael, if by “numbers” you mean suck points in Hacking Mass, then yes, those would be outstanding numbers. Speaking as a proud owner of Michael Tucker in Hacking Mass, I was disappointed that Tucker was injured for a good part of the season and was only able to accumulate 14 suck points.
* On a positive note, Tucker isn’t a bad option against RHP. His career OPS of .786 against righties is far from embarrassing. However, he should not be allowed to face left-handed pitching. Ever.
* Gift wrapping a first round draft pick to the Royals was the icing on the cake. For reasons best kept to himself, Brian Sabean decided to sign Tucker just hours before the arbitration deadline, effectively flushing the Giants’ first round pick down the toilet.
Now, I don’t mean to overstate the importance of a first round pick in baseball. This isn’t the NFL or even the NBA we’re talking about. In fact, a late first round pick is more likely to flame out and be a million dollar sunk cost than become a regular contributor to the big league roster. Having said that, Sabean is the master of taking an A-ball question mark and turning him into a proven commodity via the trade market. It's a hell of a lot easier to get good trade value for a minor league question mark who can throw 95 (a first round pick) than a minor league question mark who tops out at 90. So, why take away a bullet from Sabes' gun?
We know that there were no other teams interested in Tucker and we know that the Royals stated publicly that they no intention of offering Tucker arbitration, so Sabean’s options were as follows:
Option A) Sign Michael Tucker on December 8th; keep your first round pick.
Option B) Sign Michael Tucker on December 7th; surrender your first round pick.
For whatever reason, the Giants chose Option B. For all intents and purposes, the Giants did not want a first round pick in the 2004 draft.
* The Verdict: While not a particularly good idea, the Tucker signing is not the end of the world. However, it's part of a disturbing pattern of overpaying for interchangable parts. There is a reason that Neifi Perez was placed on waivers and went unclaimed by nearly every team in the big leagues. There is a reason that Michael Tucker didn't draw an offer from another team. Paying either of them more than a million bucks for their very replaceable services is beyond silly. It's Cam Bonifaynian.
The Other Signings/Non Signings
Matt Herges: 2 years/$2.5MM - What Herges lacks in velocity he more than makes up for in control and movement. He quietly put together an excellent year for the Giants. I'm glad to see him back for a couple of years.
Dustin Hermanson: 1 Year/800k plus incentives - Hermanson blames misuse for his struggles with Cardinals, saying he's better suited to be a starter than a middle reliever. He may be blowing smoke in the hopes of a bigger role (and therefore bigger payday), but I'll take his word for it. He pitched well in a few spot starts with the Giants. Hey, why not?
Jeffrey Hammonds 1 Year/$1MM plus incentives - a million dollars guaranteed is a bit much for a guy who is so injury prone that he may break both of his ankles trying to open a pickle jar. But, the Giants could do a whole lot worse than giving Hammonds a million bucks, and by signing Michael Tucker to a multiyear deal, they did exactly that.
JT Snow 1 Year/$1.5MM vesting option for 2005 - Sure, I'd rather see a first baseman with some pop. Unfortunately, the Giants were unable to land Sexson, Lee, or Johnson. Other than Rafael Palmeiro, Snow was the best option available.
Kudos to JT for sticking with the Giants. He probably could've eeked out another couple hundred grand from another team. Taking a slightly below market value contract to stay with the Giants won him points in my book.
Andres Galarraga - the Giants need a lefty masher who plays first base. Galarraga would've been content with a league minimum deal. So what do the Giants do? They hand the first base platoon spot to Pedro Feliz, who is less effective against southpaws than Galarraga and will cost at least twice as much. Thumbs down.
The Rumor Mill
At the risk of having this site devolve into an e-knitting circle of sorts, I humbly offer the lastest juicy bits of gossip. I'll add the requisite disclaimer that these are just rumors and therefore are not necessarily likely to actually happen.
* The Neifi to the Rockies trade is DOA. Get a load of this. From the Rocky Mountain News:
It's unlikely Neifi Perez will return, because the San Francisco Giants want the Rockies to take back more of his $2.75 million salary than they're prepared for and want a premium prospect from the Rockies as well.
One of these days, the Giants front office will wake up and realize that Neifi Perez is not a valuable commodity. He is not worth a multiyear multimillion dollar contract on the free agent market and he sure as hell is not worth a "premium prospect" on the trade market.
Incidentally, the Rockies are now looking at Deivi Cruz to fill their shortstop hole; one of the few options that actually makes reacquiring Neifi sound like a good idea. Neither of them can hit, but at least Neifi can play defense.
* In other Neifi related news, it appears Neifi will be "earning" $3.25MM this season, not $2.75MM. In their infinte wisdom, the Giants brain trust included playing time incentives which will be easy for Neifi to reach if he plays everyday. If anything, Neifi should have playing time disincentives - the more he plays, the more he should be forced to give back to the Giants. Neifi does much more damage to the Giants by playing everyday than he would as a backup.
* The Giants are apparently interested in acquiring Darren Oliver. Paying $2MM to add Oliver to the rotation makes so little sense that I fully expect it to happen.
I'm fearful that the Giants will place themselves in the same rotation trap they put themselves in last off season. The Giants believe that left handed pitchers fare better in Pac Bell Park and will therefore go out of their way to get one. Whatever supposed advantage a lefty has in Pac Bell is pissed away if the lefty can't get anyone out. Such was the lesson of one Damian Moss.
Moreover, giving two million bucks to Darren Oliver would be another example of, all together now, overpaying for interchangeable parts. Not that I agree with the premise of adding a lefty to the rotation at all costs, but why bother paying Oliver when Chad Zerbe or an inexperienced Noah Lowry can be equally as bad for a fraction of the cost?
The good news is that Sabean has denied offering Oliver a formal offer and the sixteenandahalfbacks are reportedly also after Oliver. Arizona's free spending days are supposed to be a thing of the past, but I'd love nothing more than to see Jerry Colangelo go out in one final indulgence of overspending and lock up Oliver to a multiyear deal.
|
Thursday, December 04, 2003
I Don’t Give a Fuck About BALCO
The baseball off season – a time to dream up trade scenarios, construct rosters, talk about promising young prospects, analyze free agent signings, and optimistically wait until next year. Oh, I almost forgot, the off season is also a time for the media to bombard us with steroid hysteria and pictures of AJ Pierzynski getting into his car. I smell a Pulitzer.
Who needs actual on-the-field news when you can speculate that Barry Bonds, Jason Giambi, Brad Fullmer, Bret Boone, Bobby Estelella, Elizabeth Proctor, Armando Rios, et al. may or may not have taken THG, a substance which was not illegal to possess and was not banned by baseball? Clearly, the sky is falling and western civilization as we know it has ceased to exist. All because baseball players of the 90s and 2000s just aren’t as real as they were back in the golden, innocent days of yore.
You see, during the off season we don’t have actual games to satisfy our baseball fix, so we need waiver wire claims, trade rumors, free agent gossip, winter ball updates and whatnot that the media is supposed to provide us to tide us over until pitchers and catchers report.
I want to talk about Auggie Ojeda, and I want to talk about him now. The Twins claimed the Auggmeister off waivers. There is absolutely zero coverage of the story. Why? Because Bret Boone is a kinda short second baseman and kinda short second baseman aren’t allowed to hit a lot of homeruns even if they have a grueling workout regimen and have been blessed with optimal baseball genes.
The rumor that Neifi could be traded to the Rockies has been virtually ignored by the Bay Area media. Why? Because the media needs to cover a groundbreaking story, like Barry Bonds walking into a courthouse.
And shut up about the asterisks already. So every player who is accused of using steroids should have asterisk next to their records? Fine. But if you’re going to editorialize the record book, why stop there? I demand that every pitcher who has ever doctored a baseball should have a “&” next to his records. Every player who has ever used creatine should have a “#” next to his record. Ever steal a sign? Guess what, you get a “@” next to your records. Cork a bat? A big fat “%” is your Scarlet A. Todd Helton’s Coors Field aided 219 homeruns should be shamed into ~^219`} HRs. Curt Schilling should have the phrase “sanctimonious whining jackass” next to all of his records because I don’t like him.
And the BALCO grand jury testimony is just the tip of the iceberg. This is what will happen when someone actually tests positive for steroids:
NEWSFLASH!!! BREAKING NEWS!! FOX NEWS ALERT!!! Tim Laker busted for steroids – admits he’s a juiced up fraud; film at eleven.
In other, less interesting news, Greg Maddux won his 300th game, Andres Galarraga hit his 400th HR, and Jaime Moyer pitched a perfect game.
Are you listeningbaseball writers doomsday curmudgeons? I don’t give a fuck about BALCO and neither should you.
Now that was a rant. I feel so much better now.
The baseball off season – a time to dream up trade scenarios, construct rosters, talk about promising young prospects, analyze free agent signings, and optimistically wait until next year. Oh, I almost forgot, the off season is also a time for the media to bombard us with steroid hysteria and pictures of AJ Pierzynski getting into his car. I smell a Pulitzer.
Who needs actual on-the-field news when you can speculate that Barry Bonds, Jason Giambi, Brad Fullmer, Bret Boone, Bobby Estelella, Elizabeth Proctor, Armando Rios, et al. may or may not have taken THG, a substance which was not illegal to possess and was not banned by baseball? Clearly, the sky is falling and western civilization as we know it has ceased to exist. All because baseball players of the 90s and 2000s just aren’t as real as they were back in the golden, innocent days of yore.
You see, during the off season we don’t have actual games to satisfy our baseball fix, so we need waiver wire claims, trade rumors, free agent gossip, winter ball updates and whatnot that the media is supposed to provide us to tide us over until pitchers and catchers report.
I want to talk about Auggie Ojeda, and I want to talk about him now. The Twins claimed the Auggmeister off waivers. There is absolutely zero coverage of the story. Why? Because Bret Boone is a kinda short second baseman and kinda short second baseman aren’t allowed to hit a lot of homeruns even if they have a grueling workout regimen and have been blessed with optimal baseball genes.
The rumor that Neifi could be traded to the Rockies has been virtually ignored by the Bay Area media. Why? Because the media needs to cover a groundbreaking story, like Barry Bonds walking into a courthouse.
And shut up about the asterisks already. So every player who is accused of using steroids should have asterisk next to their records? Fine. But if you’re going to editorialize the record book, why stop there? I demand that every pitcher who has ever doctored a baseball should have a “&” next to his records. Every player who has ever used creatine should have a “#” next to his record. Ever steal a sign? Guess what, you get a “@” next to your records. Cork a bat? A big fat “%” is your Scarlet A. Todd Helton’s Coors Field aided 219 homeruns should be shamed into ~^219`} HRs. Curt Schilling should have the phrase “sanctimonious whining jackass” next to all of his records because I don’t like him.
And the BALCO grand jury testimony is just the tip of the iceberg. This is what will happen when someone actually tests positive for steroids:
NEWSFLASH!!! BREAKING NEWS!! FOX NEWS ALERT!!! Tim Laker busted for steroids – admits he’s a juiced up fraud; film at eleven.
In other, less interesting news, Greg Maddux won his 300th game, Andres Galarraga hit his 400th HR, and Jaime Moyer pitched a perfect game.
Are you listening
Now that was a rant. I feel so much better now.
|
Tuesday, December 02, 2003
A Roster
As promised, here is the official Westwood Blues 2004 Giants roster. I should point out that the official, official Westwood Blues roster would’ve included a big bopper to bat behind Bonds. Unfortunately for the Giants, the bopper market is now non existent. Gary Sheffield signed a contract with the Yankees, Richie Sexson was traded to Arizona, and despite my best jinxing efforts, the Giants didn’t acquire Derrek Lee.
Alas, the Giants class of 2004 additions will be big bopperless. In fact, I will always refer to the day that Richie Sexson was traded to Arizona as “the day the music died.”
Nevertheless, we press on. Here are the moves I’d make:
1) Trade Ray Durham for Nick Johnson
Admittedly, it’s not the best idea to base a roster on a proposed trade with the Yankees. Napoleon’s wish list seems to change in a moment’s mood swing and is subject to fluctuations in impulsiveness, ego, weather patterns, tarot card readings, and level of medication. As I understand it, as of today, the Yankees’ plan is to move Soriano and his crappy infield defense to the outfield and let Bernie Williams’ oft-injured body move into the DH role.
The end result of those moves would mean that Nick Johnson would be the odd man out and that Yankees would be seeking a second baseman. Ray Durham could not only fill the second base position for the Yanks, he would become the leadoff hitter, allowing Soriano to bat in the middle of the lineup. Nick Johnson would give the Giants an inexpensive and effective first baseman. Acquiring Johnson for Durham would save the Giants nearly $7MM.
2) Sign free agents Mike Cameron, Todd Walker, Miguel Batista, Scott Erickson, and Orlando Palmeiro. Re-sign Andres Galarraga and Dustin Hermanson.
3) Voila! For the price of approximately $76MM, the Giants roster would be as follows:
C Pierzynski (2.75)
1B Johnson (.3)
2B Walker (3.5)
SS Neifi (2.75)
3B Alfonzo (6.5)
LF Superman (16)
CF Cameron (5.5)
RF Grissom (2)
SP Schmidt (8.5)
SP Rueter (4)
SP Batista (3)
SP Williams (.3)
SP Hermanson/Erickson/Correia (.5/.3)
RP Nen (9)
RP Herges (1)
RP Rodriguez (3)
RP Eyre (1)
RP Christiansen (2.3)
RP Brower (.750)
RP Hermanson/Erickson/Correia/NRI (.5/.3)
OF Palmeiro (1)
OF/IF Feliz (1)
IF Galarraga (.5)
IF Ransom/Dallimore/NRI (.3)
C Torrealba (.3)
* Random, rambling notes on the official lineup:
* The players under contract for next year have their salary listed in bold. The other salaries are my guesses for free agents and arbitration eligible players. These are just guesses, but I think they’re in the right ballpark. If you think a salary is too low or high then just pretend the player signed a multiyear deal and adjust your 2005 figure accordingly.
* Because of the Safeway Spendthrift’s payroll cutting ways, the Giants only have about $8MM or so to spend on a 1B, a RF, at least one SP, a reliever, and a bench. Trading Ray Durham for Johnson would allow them to spend about $15MM on those positions. Yes, Todd Walker is certainly a downgrade from Ray Durham, but at the same time there would be upgrades at 1B, CF, SP, and RP.
* Neifi is the starting SS. Hey, I never claimed the lineup was perfect. I’d say Neifi is the walking definition of “sunk costs,” but that would be too generous given his low walk rate.
Giving Neifi 600+ PAs is like letting a kid run around the house with scissors. Nothing good can come out of the situation and disaster could strike at any moment. Felipe Alou’s always odd lineup construction may let Neifi hit near the top of the order because Neifi can bunt and “make things happen.” If Alou is tempted to hit Neifi in the leadoff spot on an everyday basis, then the analogy would be better described as letting a kid run around the house with a bandsaw.
* The pitching staff is a little shaky, but I’ve attempted to compensate for this by assembling an excellent defensive team. Cameron and Grissom would patrol 421 as well as any tandem in the Pac Bell era. Bonds and Walker would be the only subpar defenders.
* I’m uncomfortable with the idea of handing a rotation spot to Kevin Correia. Let him fight for a roster spot in Spring Training. If he doesn’t make it, he’ll be the first reserve called up from Fresno.
* Rather than rotting on the Giants bench, I’d prefer to see Todd Linden open the year in Fresno. A good year in the minors will allow the Giants to showcase Linden and maximize his trade value. If they don’t trade him, then Linden will have an additional year of experience when he is nudged into the lineup in 2005.
* As I mentioned ad nausea during the 2003 season, the Giants hammered LHP and struggled against RHP. Adding the left-handed hitting Pierzynski, Johnson, Walker, and Palmeiro will give the Giants a more balanced attack.
* The Giants are not signing Vlad. Trust me, they just aren’t. Ok?
* A variation of the Yankees/Giants trade would be Nick Johnson for Edgardo Alfonzo. I think the Yankees would prefer Durham to Alfonzo because Durham can fill the leadoff spot. The Yankees might actually prefer Alfonzo to Durham because Fonzie is “New York tested” and he has an excellent post- season record.
[aside] There is an interesting school of thought that says that a team that is a lock for the playoffs (the Yankees) gets more marginal value out of a player who performs well in the post season (Alfonzo) than a player who is otherwise superior during the regular season (Durham). In other words, the regular season comparison of Alfonzo vs. Durham is irrelevant because the Yankees will reach the post season with either of those players in their lineup. Alfonzo would be the more valuable player to the Yankees because he is historically the more “clutch” post season player.
I don’t necessarily agree with this school of thought, given the fact that playoff performance is a relatively small sample and is therefore not the best predictor of future performance, but it’s something to think about nonetheless. [/aside]
Back to the Giants, sending Alfonzo instead of Durham would allow the Giants to keep their leadoff hitter and would give the Giants a great 1-2-3 of Durham-Johnson-Bonds.
* As always, I love getting feedback. So send in your critiques of my roster.
As promised, here is the official Westwood Blues 2004 Giants roster. I should point out that the official, official Westwood Blues roster would’ve included a big bopper to bat behind Bonds. Unfortunately for the Giants, the bopper market is now non existent. Gary Sheffield signed a contract with the Yankees, Richie Sexson was traded to Arizona, and despite my best jinxing efforts, the Giants didn’t acquire Derrek Lee.
Alas, the Giants class of 2004 additions will be big bopperless. In fact, I will always refer to the day that Richie Sexson was traded to Arizona as “the day the music died.”
Nevertheless, we press on. Here are the moves I’d make:
1) Trade Ray Durham for Nick Johnson
Admittedly, it’s not the best idea to base a roster on a proposed trade with the Yankees. Napoleon’s wish list seems to change in a moment’s mood swing and is subject to fluctuations in impulsiveness, ego, weather patterns, tarot card readings, and level of medication. As I understand it, as of today, the Yankees’ plan is to move Soriano and his crappy infield defense to the outfield and let Bernie Williams’ oft-injured body move into the DH role.
The end result of those moves would mean that Nick Johnson would be the odd man out and that Yankees would be seeking a second baseman. Ray Durham could not only fill the second base position for the Yanks, he would become the leadoff hitter, allowing Soriano to bat in the middle of the lineup. Nick Johnson would give the Giants an inexpensive and effective first baseman. Acquiring Johnson for Durham would save the Giants nearly $7MM.
2) Sign free agents Mike Cameron, Todd Walker, Miguel Batista, Scott Erickson, and Orlando Palmeiro. Re-sign Andres Galarraga and Dustin Hermanson.
3) Voila! For the price of approximately $76MM, the Giants roster would be as follows:
C Pierzynski (2.75)
1B Johnson (.3)
2B Walker (3.5)
SS Neifi (2.75)
3B Alfonzo (6.5)
LF Superman (16)
CF Cameron (5.5)
RF Grissom (2)
SP Schmidt (8.5)
SP Rueter (4)
SP Batista (3)
SP Williams (.3)
SP Hermanson/Erickson/Correia (.5/.3)
RP Nen (9)
RP Herges (1)
RP Rodriguez (3)
RP Eyre (1)
RP Christiansen (2.3)
RP Brower (.750)
RP Hermanson/Erickson/Correia/NRI (.5/.3)
OF Palmeiro (1)
OF/IF Feliz (1)
IF Galarraga (.5)
IF Ransom/Dallimore/NRI (.3)
C Torrealba (.3)
* Random, rambling notes on the official lineup:
* The players under contract for next year have their salary listed in bold. The other salaries are my guesses for free agents and arbitration eligible players. These are just guesses, but I think they’re in the right ballpark. If you think a salary is too low or high then just pretend the player signed a multiyear deal and adjust your 2005 figure accordingly.
* Because of the Safeway Spendthrift’s payroll cutting ways, the Giants only have about $8MM or so to spend on a 1B, a RF, at least one SP, a reliever, and a bench. Trading Ray Durham for Johnson would allow them to spend about $15MM on those positions. Yes, Todd Walker is certainly a downgrade from Ray Durham, but at the same time there would be upgrades at 1B, CF, SP, and RP.
* Neifi is the starting SS. Hey, I never claimed the lineup was perfect. I’d say Neifi is the walking definition of “sunk costs,” but that would be too generous given his low walk rate.
Giving Neifi 600+ PAs is like letting a kid run around the house with scissors. Nothing good can come out of the situation and disaster could strike at any moment. Felipe Alou’s always odd lineup construction may let Neifi hit near the top of the order because Neifi can bunt and “make things happen.” If Alou is tempted to hit Neifi in the leadoff spot on an everyday basis, then the analogy would be better described as letting a kid run around the house with a bandsaw.
* The pitching staff is a little shaky, but I’ve attempted to compensate for this by assembling an excellent defensive team. Cameron and Grissom would patrol 421 as well as any tandem in the Pac Bell era. Bonds and Walker would be the only subpar defenders.
* I’m uncomfortable with the idea of handing a rotation spot to Kevin Correia. Let him fight for a roster spot in Spring Training. If he doesn’t make it, he’ll be the first reserve called up from Fresno.
* Rather than rotting on the Giants bench, I’d prefer to see Todd Linden open the year in Fresno. A good year in the minors will allow the Giants to showcase Linden and maximize his trade value. If they don’t trade him, then Linden will have an additional year of experience when he is nudged into the lineup in 2005.
* As I mentioned ad nausea during the 2003 season, the Giants hammered LHP and struggled against RHP. Adding the left-handed hitting Pierzynski, Johnson, Walker, and Palmeiro will give the Giants a more balanced attack.
* The Giants are not signing Vlad. Trust me, they just aren’t. Ok?
* A variation of the Yankees/Giants trade would be Nick Johnson for Edgardo Alfonzo. I think the Yankees would prefer Durham to Alfonzo because Durham can fill the leadoff spot. The Yankees might actually prefer Alfonzo to Durham because Fonzie is “New York tested” and he has an excellent post- season record.
[aside] There is an interesting school of thought that says that a team that is a lock for the playoffs (the Yankees) gets more marginal value out of a player who performs well in the post season (Alfonzo) than a player who is otherwise superior during the regular season (Durham). In other words, the regular season comparison of Alfonzo vs. Durham is irrelevant because the Yankees will reach the post season with either of those players in their lineup. Alfonzo would be the more valuable player to the Yankees because he is historically the more “clutch” post season player.
I don’t necessarily agree with this school of thought, given the fact that playoff performance is a relatively small sample and is therefore not the best predictor of future performance, but it’s something to think about nonetheless. [/aside]
Back to the Giants, sending Alfonzo instead of Durham would allow the Giants to keep their leadoff hitter and would give the Giants a great 1-2-3 of Durham-Johnson-Bonds.
* As always, I love getting feedback. So send in your critiques of my roster.
|
Saturday, November 22, 2003
Bargain Hunting
Billy Beane has made a name for himself by acquiring players that are undervalued by the market. Here are some potential Giants acquisitions whose value may be understated by using traditional methods of statistical evaluation.
* Derrek Lee
When evaluating a player who plays his home games in a pitcher’s park, one should take a note of his park adjusted statistics and his home/road splits. Lee’s park adjusted numbers are excellent. In 2003 he posted an OPS+ of 135 and an EqA of .307. His home/road splits are dramatic. Home: .242/.371/.419 with 11 HRs. Road: .297/.388/.591 with 20 HRs. That’s an OPS differential of nearly 200 points. His three year home/road OPS split of .828/.887 is far less dramatic, but Lee’s raw numbers are undoubtedly hurt by playing in Pro Player Stadium. Pac Bell Park, on the other hand, has a reputation of being a pretty fair park for right-handed power hitters.
Incidentally, I contend that Derrek Lee is just as good as Richie Sexson and is probably even a shade better. Here are the two player’s park adjusted numbers over the last two years.
DL 2003: 135 OPS+, .307 EqA. DL 2002: 131 OPS+, .302 EqA
RS 2003: 136 OPS+, .306 EqA. RS 2002: 130 OPS+, .297 EqA
Lee gets the tie breaker because he is a gold glove fielder and a faster runner.
I’m holding out hope that Lee isn’t traded and that the Giants can sign him to a contract if he is non-tendered by the Marlins. In an effort to jinx the much rumored Derrek Lee to Baltimore trade, I’ll point out that Lee is an absolute LOCK to be traded to the Orioles.
* Mike Cameron
Cameron is a bit of a paradox in that his offensive value is hurt by the cavernous Safeco outfield, while his defensive value is maximized by playing spectacular defense in said cavernous outfield as only a few major league center fielders can.
His talents would be maximized by playing in a park that is a) fair to right-handed hitters, yet b) has a spacious outfield to patrol. In other words, he’d be a great fit with the Giants.
* JT Snow
Snow embodies the Moneyball principle – a player whose primary skill, getting on base at an above average rate, is undervalued by the market. Also, Snow has also said that he wants to stay with the Giants and would therefore give the Giants a hometown discount. A one year deal for $1.5MM or less would be a great value.
* Miguel Batista
As I pointed out in my post on starting pitching, Batista’s raw numbers are hurt by playing in a hitter’s park. His ERA+ of 132 ranked him 10th in the NL. Over the last three years his road ERA has been about a half run better than his home ERA.
* Steve Reed, Kerry Lightenberg, Curtis Leskanic
By definition, a reliever’s statistics are accumulated in a small sample size. One shouldn’t read too much into these pitchers’ numbers, but it’s worth pointing out that they’ve been successful despite pitching in hitter friendly parks.
In the next post, I’ll offer the long awaited Westwood Blues official 2004 Giants roster. Hint: You may see a few names from this post on said roster. Unfortunately, it probably won’t include the Orioles 2004 Opening Day 1B, Derrek Lee, because he will undoubtedly be traded in the next few days.
Pedro Feliz
While reading my off season ramblings, you may have noticed that I kind of glossed over the Pedro Feliz possibility at 1B or RF. This was not an accident. The only scenario in which Pedro Feliz is any sort of answer is if the Giants are selecting from the Jeopardy! category “Paquettepurri.”
Pedro Feliz had a decent year in 2003 going .247/.278/.515 with 16 HRs in about 250 plate appearances. His OPS+ was 102 and his EqA was .266, meaning he was a tiny bit above league average. The question is – is this level of mediocre performance sustainable or will he regress to the below average player he was at nearly every level of professional baseball prior to this season? Well, that’s certainly a loaded question if I ever seen one.
In most cases, a player’s minor league stats are a good predictor of his future major league performance. Feliz’s minor league stats are farily unimpressive. His career minor league line was .267/.274/.428. Yes, that’s an isolated OBP (.274-.267) of just .007! Live and Let Hack? You Only Walk Twice?
Breaking his minor league career down by year, there is only one year, 2000 at Fresno, that stands out. That year he hit .298 with 33 HR, had 105 RBI, and had 69 XBHs. 2000 was an excellent year for Feliz, but I discount it a bit because the PCL is a notorious hitters league, and he put up those numbers against competition which was a bit younger than he was.
On to a more subjective analysis - anyone who watches the Giants can tell you that Feliz struggles against major league breaking pitches and still lacks plate discipline.
I’m probably guilty of gross over-analyzation, but anecdotally Feliz had a good share of his 2003 success against one speeded, late inning relievers. He hit HRs against Justin Speier, Jay Witascik, Adam Bernero, Billy Wagner, and Guilermo Mota. Facing pitchers who throw only hard stuff is a good match for his strength (he can turn around a fastball as well as anyone), while also hiding his weakness (hitting breaking pitches). Facing starters with a more complete repertoire of pitches on an everyday basis is not a good match for Feliz’s skill set.
So, is Pedro Feliz worth keeping around to be a spot starter and to provide some pop off the bench? Sure. Is it a good move to put him in the starting lineup everyday and give him 600+ plate appearances? No.
Three Dots
Yorvit Torrealba, you’re star is officially fading. You’ve gone from Opening Day catcher, to a backup in a New York minute. Now you’ve hit a new low. You’re Venezuelan winter ball line of .167/.200/.288 means you are now only the second best catcher in winter ball named Torrealba...
***
…Have I mentioned that it is a stone cold, lead pipe lock that Derrek Lee will be traded and will NOT be playing for the Giants next year?...
***
…In case anyone is looking to brush up on their MLB transaction rules minutia, I recommend Rob Neyer’s Transaction Primer and Brewerfan.net’s Roster Management. Both are valuable resources that help provide the framework necessary for effective off season speculation…
Billy Beane has made a name for himself by acquiring players that are undervalued by the market. Here are some potential Giants acquisitions whose value may be understated by using traditional methods of statistical evaluation.
* Derrek Lee
When evaluating a player who plays his home games in a pitcher’s park, one should take a note of his park adjusted statistics and his home/road splits. Lee’s park adjusted numbers are excellent. In 2003 he posted an OPS+ of 135 and an EqA of .307. His home/road splits are dramatic. Home: .242/.371/.419 with 11 HRs. Road: .297/.388/.591 with 20 HRs. That’s an OPS differential of nearly 200 points. His three year home/road OPS split of .828/.887 is far less dramatic, but Lee’s raw numbers are undoubtedly hurt by playing in Pro Player Stadium. Pac Bell Park, on the other hand, has a reputation of being a pretty fair park for right-handed power hitters.
Incidentally, I contend that Derrek Lee is just as good as Richie Sexson and is probably even a shade better. Here are the two player’s park adjusted numbers over the last two years.
DL 2003: 135 OPS+, .307 EqA. DL 2002: 131 OPS+, .302 EqA
RS 2003: 136 OPS+, .306 EqA. RS 2002: 130 OPS+, .297 EqA
Lee gets the tie breaker because he is a gold glove fielder and a faster runner.
I’m holding out hope that Lee isn’t traded and that the Giants can sign him to a contract if he is non-tendered by the Marlins. In an effort to jinx the much rumored Derrek Lee to Baltimore trade, I’ll point out that Lee is an absolute LOCK to be traded to the Orioles.
* Mike Cameron
Cameron is a bit of a paradox in that his offensive value is hurt by the cavernous Safeco outfield, while his defensive value is maximized by playing spectacular defense in said cavernous outfield as only a few major league center fielders can.
His talents would be maximized by playing in a park that is a) fair to right-handed hitters, yet b) has a spacious outfield to patrol. In other words, he’d be a great fit with the Giants.
* JT Snow
Snow embodies the Moneyball principle – a player whose primary skill, getting on base at an above average rate, is undervalued by the market. Also, Snow has also said that he wants to stay with the Giants and would therefore give the Giants a hometown discount. A one year deal for $1.5MM or less would be a great value.
* Miguel Batista
As I pointed out in my post on starting pitching, Batista’s raw numbers are hurt by playing in a hitter’s park. His ERA+ of 132 ranked him 10th in the NL. Over the last three years his road ERA has been about a half run better than his home ERA.
* Steve Reed, Kerry Lightenberg, Curtis Leskanic
By definition, a reliever’s statistics are accumulated in a small sample size. One shouldn’t read too much into these pitchers’ numbers, but it’s worth pointing out that they’ve been successful despite pitching in hitter friendly parks.
In the next post, I’ll offer the long awaited Westwood Blues official 2004 Giants roster. Hint: You may see a few names from this post on said roster. Unfortunately, it probably won’t include the Orioles 2004 Opening Day 1B, Derrek Lee, because he will undoubtedly be traded in the next few days.
Pedro Feliz
While reading my off season ramblings, you may have noticed that I kind of glossed over the Pedro Feliz possibility at 1B or RF. This was not an accident. The only scenario in which Pedro Feliz is any sort of answer is if the Giants are selecting from the Jeopardy! category “Paquettepurri.”
Pedro Feliz had a decent year in 2003 going .247/.278/.515 with 16 HRs in about 250 plate appearances. His OPS+ was 102 and his EqA was .266, meaning he was a tiny bit above league average. The question is – is this level of mediocre performance sustainable or will he regress to the below average player he was at nearly every level of professional baseball prior to this season? Well, that’s certainly a loaded question if I ever seen one.
In most cases, a player’s minor league stats are a good predictor of his future major league performance. Feliz’s minor league stats are farily unimpressive. His career minor league line was .267/.274/.428. Yes, that’s an isolated OBP (.274-.267) of just .007! Live and Let Hack? You Only Walk Twice?
Breaking his minor league career down by year, there is only one year, 2000 at Fresno, that stands out. That year he hit .298 with 33 HR, had 105 RBI, and had 69 XBHs. 2000 was an excellent year for Feliz, but I discount it a bit because the PCL is a notorious hitters league, and he put up those numbers against competition which was a bit younger than he was.
On to a more subjective analysis - anyone who watches the Giants can tell you that Feliz struggles against major league breaking pitches and still lacks plate discipline.
I’m probably guilty of gross over-analyzation, but anecdotally Feliz had a good share of his 2003 success against one speeded, late inning relievers. He hit HRs against Justin Speier, Jay Witascik, Adam Bernero, Billy Wagner, and Guilermo Mota. Facing pitchers who throw only hard stuff is a good match for his strength (he can turn around a fastball as well as anyone), while also hiding his weakness (hitting breaking pitches). Facing starters with a more complete repertoire of pitches on an everyday basis is not a good match for Feliz’s skill set.
So, is Pedro Feliz worth keeping around to be a spot starter and to provide some pop off the bench? Sure. Is it a good move to put him in the starting lineup everyday and give him 600+ plate appearances? No.
Three Dots
Yorvit Torrealba, you’re star is officially fading. You’ve gone from Opening Day catcher, to a backup in a New York minute. Now you’ve hit a new low. You’re Venezuelan winter ball line of .167/.200/.288 means you are now only the second best catcher in winter ball named Torrealba...
***
…Have I mentioned that it is a stone cold, lead pipe lock that Derrek Lee will be traded and will NOT be playing for the Giants next year?...
***
…In case anyone is looking to brush up on their MLB transaction rules minutia, I recommend Rob Neyer’s Transaction Primer and Brewerfan.net’s Roster Management. Both are valuable resources that help provide the framework necessary for effective off season speculation…
|
Tuesday, November 18, 2003
The Bullpen
Having already dealt Joe Nathan, and facing the possibility of losing Tim Worrell and/or Felix Rodriguez, the Giants have at least one hole in the bullpen to fill.
* Kerry Lightenberg
Beatagan made an odd move when they declined to pick up Lightenberg’s $1.2MM option for 2004 and paid him a 200K buyout instead. This is really one heck of a market adjustment if a reliever coming off a solid season and possessing a career ERA of 3.09 and a career ERA+ of 140 is worth less than a million dollars.
* Tim Worrell
Like fellow free agents JT Snow and Rich Aurillia, Worrell is worth keeping around but not worth getting into a bidding war over. Giants beat writers have speculated that Worrell could be out of the Giants’ price range because he may command “closer’s money” on the free agent market. I really don’t see that happening, but if some team wants to give Worrell three years and $15 million dollars, then God bless them. Bring him back, but only for one year (maybe two) and only if the price is right.
* Curtis Leskanic
Since leaving Colorado, Leskanic has been a very useful pitcher. This year he had a 2.22 ERA while league hit just .204 against him.
* Tim Rattay
Why not? FREE TIM RATTAY!
* Rod Beck
This probably won’t happen, considering Beck’s stated desire to be a full time closer, but maybe he could be a mid-season acquisition...in a van down by the cove…
* The Scrap Heap
There is one school of thought that says it’s foolish to spend big bucks on a reliever when cheaper alternatives may be nearly as effective. Collect a bunch of guys via minor league free agency and the waiver wire and then turn Spring Training into an episode of “Antiques Roadshow.”
Brian Sabean: How about this bottle of Sturtze that I found on eBay. Is it worth anything?
The Baseball Gods, Department of Reclamations: Ehh. We’ll give you about a 4.00 ERA, a lot of walks, and a bunch of homeruns allowed.
Ned Colletti: I have an actual antique. You probably get this a lot, but do you think this Orosco is worth anything?
The Baseball Gods, Department of Reclamations: Bwahaaahaaaaaa!
Dick Tidrow: How about this?
The Baseball Gods, Department of Reclamations: Um, what is it?
Dick Tidrow: I found it in a trash dumpster behind Hooters. It’s an Aneudy.
The Baseball Gods, Department of Reclamations: Nice try.
Brian Sabean: Ok, how about this discarded Matos that I found a garage sale in Lodi?
The Baseball Gods, Department of Reclamations: Now, we’re talking. We’ll give you a sub 3.50 ERA.
Brian Sabean: Woo-hoo!
With a tight budget, going the bargain route might be the best way to go.
The Nest Egg?
Here is a juicy bit of Richie Sexson/Giants gossip from TSN’s Ken Rosenthal:
“Brewers G.M. Doug Melvin, targeting young pitching, pursued RHPs Joe Nathan and Boof Bonser, two of the three pitchers the Giants traded to the Twins for C A.J. Pierzynski. The Giants parted with two other pitching prospects for RHP Sidney Ponson last July, but they still could build a Sexson deal around reliever Felix Rodriguez, Class AAA OF Todd Linden and C Yorvit Torrealba.”
Sexson for Felix, Linden, Torrealba, and prospect(s)? Where do I sign up? The difference in salary means the Giants would only be taking on a net of $5.5MM in payroll for 2004, which is within their budget constraints.
That package really doesn’t seem like enough to get a star like Sexson. However, it sure beats the hell out of the hodge-podge of overpaid mediocrity the sixteenandahalfbacks reportedly offered for Sexson.
M-V-P!
Congrats to Barry Bonds for his third consecutive and sixth overall MVP Award. 2003 marks the fourth consecutive year that a member of the Giants has won the NL MVP award. All of them well deserved.
Having already dealt Joe Nathan, and facing the possibility of losing Tim Worrell and/or Felix Rodriguez, the Giants have at least one hole in the bullpen to fill.
* Kerry Lightenberg
Beatagan made an odd move when they declined to pick up Lightenberg’s $1.2MM option for 2004 and paid him a 200K buyout instead. This is really one heck of a market adjustment if a reliever coming off a solid season and possessing a career ERA of 3.09 and a career ERA+ of 140 is worth less than a million dollars.
* Tim Worrell
Like fellow free agents JT Snow and Rich Aurillia, Worrell is worth keeping around but not worth getting into a bidding war over. Giants beat writers have speculated that Worrell could be out of the Giants’ price range because he may command “closer’s money” on the free agent market. I really don’t see that happening, but if some team wants to give Worrell three years and $15 million dollars, then God bless them. Bring him back, but only for one year (maybe two) and only if the price is right.
* Curtis Leskanic
Since leaving Colorado, Leskanic has been a very useful pitcher. This year he had a 2.22 ERA while league hit just .204 against him.
* Tim Rattay
Why not? FREE TIM RATTAY!
* Rod Beck
This probably won’t happen, considering Beck’s stated desire to be a full time closer, but maybe he could be a mid-season acquisition...in a van down by the cove…
* The Scrap Heap
There is one school of thought that says it’s foolish to spend big bucks on a reliever when cheaper alternatives may be nearly as effective. Collect a bunch of guys via minor league free agency and the waiver wire and then turn Spring Training into an episode of “Antiques Roadshow.”
Brian Sabean: How about this bottle of Sturtze that I found on eBay. Is it worth anything?
The Baseball Gods, Department of Reclamations: Ehh. We’ll give you about a 4.00 ERA, a lot of walks, and a bunch of homeruns allowed.
Ned Colletti: I have an actual antique. You probably get this a lot, but do you think this Orosco is worth anything?
The Baseball Gods, Department of Reclamations: Bwahaaahaaaaaa!
Dick Tidrow: How about this?
The Baseball Gods, Department of Reclamations: Um, what is it?
Dick Tidrow: I found it in a trash dumpster behind Hooters. It’s an Aneudy.
The Baseball Gods, Department of Reclamations: Nice try.
Brian Sabean: Ok, how about this discarded Matos that I found a garage sale in Lodi?
The Baseball Gods, Department of Reclamations: Now, we’re talking. We’ll give you a sub 3.50 ERA.
Brian Sabean: Woo-hoo!
With a tight budget, going the bargain route might be the best way to go.
The Nest Egg?
Here is a juicy bit of Richie Sexson/Giants gossip from TSN’s Ken Rosenthal:
“Brewers G.M. Doug Melvin, targeting young pitching, pursued RHPs Joe Nathan and Boof Bonser, two of the three pitchers the Giants traded to the Twins for C A.J. Pierzynski. The Giants parted with two other pitching prospects for RHP Sidney Ponson last July, but they still could build a Sexson deal around reliever Felix Rodriguez, Class AAA OF Todd Linden and C Yorvit Torrealba.”
Sexson for Felix, Linden, Torrealba, and prospect(s)? Where do I sign up? The difference in salary means the Giants would only be taking on a net of $5.5MM in payroll for 2004, which is within their budget constraints.
That package really doesn’t seem like enough to get a star like Sexson. However, it sure beats the hell out of the hodge-podge of overpaid mediocrity the sixteenandahalfbacks reportedly offered for Sexson.
M-V-P!
Congrats to Barry Bonds for his third consecutive and sixth overall MVP Award. 2003 marks the fourth consecutive year that a member of the Giants has won the NL MVP award. All of them well deserved.
|
Saturday, November 15, 2003
Pierzynski, P-I-E-R-Z-Y-N-S-K-I. Pierzynski.
Oh, that wacky Brian Sabean. Just when you think you’ve got him figured out, just when you think you can predict his next move, he throws you for a loop. In this case a left handed catching loop that is difficult for me to spell.
The other night, Assistant GM Ned Coletti took to the airwaves of KNBR and declared that the Giants were in serious trade talks. This set the wheels in my head into a frenzy. Richie Sexson? Nick Johnson? Javier Vazquez? As is usually the case with Brian Sabean, the correct answer was None of the Above.
* The Deal: AJ Perrzynski and PTBNL/cash considerations for Joe Nathan, Boof Bonser, and Francisco Liriano.
* The Good:
- Peirzynski is a pretty damn good player. His raw stat line from 2003 is .312/.360/.464, .824 OPS, 11 HR, 74 RBI. His park adjusted numbers are very good as well: 114 OPS+, .285 EqA.
His 22 win shares ranked him second in the AL among catchers, and he lead the entire Twins team in win shares. To put that in a different perspective, 22 win shares would’ve tied him with Jason Schmidt and Marquis Grissom for second on the Giants.
- Persynski is young and under the Giants’ control for the next two years. He has also improved in each of his first 3 full seasons. His career probably hasn’t peaked yet.
- Adding a lefthanded bat to the lineup goes a long way to addressing the Giants struggles against right handed pitching. His 2003 split against righties was .324/.370/.469.
- AJ didn’t go to San Diego. The quickly improving Pod People were rumored to be interested in acquiring Mr. Pierzynsky’s services. Now, they must turn to Plan B. I’m hoping its Plan “B,” as in Benito or Brad.
- Let’s play a logic game. 1) What do these names have in common? 2) Which one of these is not like the others?
Kevin Joesph, Ryan Vogelsong, Erasma Ramirez, Scott Linebrink, Chris Van Rossom, Jason Grilli, Joe Fontenot, Nate Bump, Mike Pageler, Mike Villano, Darin Blood, Jim Stoops, Jason Brester, Jamie Brewington, Jesus Ibarra, Carlos Valdez, Brandon Rector, Keith Foulke, Bobby Leese, Lorenzo Barcelo, Mike Caruso, Ken Vining, Brian Manning, Chris Singleton, Alberto Castillo, Ryan Meaux, Felix Diaz, and my personal favorite, Fausto Macey.*
* The Bad:
- Obviously, in order to get value, one must give up value. Joe Nathan is a valuable commodity because he’s a) good and b) inexpensive. I wish Joe Nathan nothing but the best in Minnesota.
- Nathan’s departure will likely mean a larger role for FiFi LaPuke. Memo to Felix: It’s called a changeup. Look into it. Thanks.
- I hope Brian Sabean at least explored the possibility of acquiring uber catching prospect Kevin Oudeis, the Greek God of Clutch, from the Phillies. Then again, even offering all of the mediocre relievers in the world wouldn’t have pried the untouchable Oudeis from Ed Wade’s grasp.
- The catcher position wasn’t really in need of an upgrade. Torrealba could’ve provided league average offense (for the catching position, that is) and solid defense at a position where defense is a premium. He also could’ve done so for the league minimum, allowing valuable resources to be spent on RF, 1B, and SP upgrades.
- Alas, my Giants barbecue apron will continue to collect dust. Start fitting yourself for pinstripes, Sheff.
* The Ugly
* The Verdict:
Good deal. As long as Superman is ringless, I will continue to be extremely short sighted when evaluating these types of deals. Win. Now. I don’t mind giving up pitchers who may or may not be good in 2006. Peirsinski gives the Giants a good left handed bat, youthful exuberance, and one of the better offensive catchers in the league for at least the next couple of years.
What out of the blue deal will Sabes come up with next? Freddy Garcia? Chuck Finley? Jim Edmonds? Richard Hidalgo? I’m going with None of the Above.
* Before you e-mail me: Yes, I realized some of these guys were just throw ins and were never really touted by anyone; they were included in the list for dramatic effect. I also realize that the jury is still out on some of those players. The point remains, the overwhelming majority of the young players that Brian Sabean has traded away have gone on to have very unspectacular careers. In Sabes we trust.
Oh, that wacky Brian Sabean. Just when you think you’ve got him figured out, just when you think you can predict his next move, he throws you for a loop. In this case a left handed catching loop that is difficult for me to spell.
The other night, Assistant GM Ned Coletti took to the airwaves of KNBR and declared that the Giants were in serious trade talks. This set the wheels in my head into a frenzy. Richie Sexson? Nick Johnson? Javier Vazquez? As is usually the case with Brian Sabean, the correct answer was None of the Above.
* The Deal: AJ Perrzynski and PTBNL/cash considerations for Joe Nathan, Boof Bonser, and Francisco Liriano.
* The Good:
- Peirzynski is a pretty damn good player. His raw stat line from 2003 is .312/.360/.464, .824 OPS, 11 HR, 74 RBI. His park adjusted numbers are very good as well: 114 OPS+, .285 EqA.
His 22 win shares ranked him second in the AL among catchers, and he lead the entire Twins team in win shares. To put that in a different perspective, 22 win shares would’ve tied him with Jason Schmidt and Marquis Grissom for second on the Giants.
- Persynski is young and under the Giants’ control for the next two years. He has also improved in each of his first 3 full seasons. His career probably hasn’t peaked yet.
- Adding a lefthanded bat to the lineup goes a long way to addressing the Giants struggles against right handed pitching. His 2003 split against righties was .324/.370/.469.
- AJ didn’t go to San Diego. The quickly improving Pod People were rumored to be interested in acquiring Mr. Pierzynsky’s services. Now, they must turn to Plan B. I’m hoping its Plan “B,” as in Benito or Brad.
- Let’s play a logic game. 1) What do these names have in common? 2) Which one of these is not like the others?
Kevin Joesph, Ryan Vogelsong, Erasma Ramirez, Scott Linebrink, Chris Van Rossom, Jason Grilli, Joe Fontenot, Nate Bump, Mike Pageler, Mike Villano, Darin Blood, Jim Stoops, Jason Brester, Jamie Brewington, Jesus Ibarra, Carlos Valdez, Brandon Rector, Keith Foulke, Bobby Leese, Lorenzo Barcelo, Mike Caruso, Ken Vining, Brian Manning, Chris Singleton, Alberto Castillo, Ryan Meaux, Felix Diaz, and my personal favorite, Fausto Macey.*
* The Bad:
- Obviously, in order to get value, one must give up value. Joe Nathan is a valuable commodity because he’s a) good and b) inexpensive. I wish Joe Nathan nothing but the best in Minnesota.
- Nathan’s departure will likely mean a larger role for FiFi LaPuke. Memo to Felix: It’s called a changeup. Look into it. Thanks.
- I hope Brian Sabean at least explored the possibility of acquiring uber catching prospect Kevin Oudeis, the Greek God of Clutch, from the Phillies. Then again, even offering all of the mediocre relievers in the world wouldn’t have pried the untouchable Oudeis from Ed Wade’s grasp.
- The catcher position wasn’t really in need of an upgrade. Torrealba could’ve provided league average offense (for the catching position, that is) and solid defense at a position where defense is a premium. He also could’ve done so for the league minimum, allowing valuable resources to be spent on RF, 1B, and SP upgrades.
- Alas, my Giants barbecue apron will continue to collect dust. Start fitting yourself for pinstripes, Sheff.
* The Ugly
* The Verdict:
Good deal. As long as Superman is ringless, I will continue to be extremely short sighted when evaluating these types of deals. Win. Now. I don’t mind giving up pitchers who may or may not be good in 2006. Peirsinski gives the Giants a good left handed bat, youthful exuberance, and one of the better offensive catchers in the league for at least the next couple of years.
What out of the blue deal will Sabes come up with next? Freddy Garcia? Chuck Finley? Jim Edmonds? Richard Hidalgo? I’m going with None of the Above.
* Before you e-mail me: Yes, I realized some of these guys were just throw ins and were never really touted by anyone; they were included in the list for dramatic effect. I also realize that the jury is still out on some of those players. The point remains, the overwhelming majority of the young players that Brian Sabean has traded away have gone on to have very unspectacular careers. In Sabes we trust.
|
Monday, November 10, 2003
SF Giants Sign Maddux
There is a headline you probably will not be seeing this winter, unless, of course, the Maddux in question is Mike Maddux. The Giants have at least one open rotation spot and they need to fill it relatively cheaply. Let’s look at some starters who won’t break the bank.
* Freddy Garcia
Ah, screw it, budget be damned. According to Peter Gammons, the arbitration eligible Garcia could be moved this winter. Both of Garcia’s main weaknesses, giving up gopher balls and struggling against lefties, would be neutralized by pitching in Pac Bell Park. Certainly all pitchers benefit from the pitching friendly confines of Pac Bell, but Garcia would prosper more so than others.
* Pet Hentgen
Hentgen could be a good risk to take, as he was a pretty good pitcher in the second half of the season. Also, the rule of thumb for pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery is that it takes them two full years after the surgery to return to normal. Of course “normal” for a 35-year-old might not be that great, but I still think Hentgen could be above average next year. Also, Ken Rosenthal reports that a few other teams are interested in Hentgen.
* Jason Johnson
Per Peter Gammons, the Giants wanted to acquire Johnson at the trading deadline as part of a larger deal with Baltimore. Johnson is arbitration eligible and could be non-tendered. His numbers are very bland (10-10, 4.18 ERA, 104 ERA+), but they’re bland in an Andy Benes kind of way, and not in an Alan Benes kind of way.
* Scott Erickson
Apparently, Erickson wants to play for the Giants. He’d be a non-roster invitee and would likely start the year in the minors. I can’t wait for the black hightops giveaway day.
* Kurt Ainsworth
While we’re at it, the Giants may as well acquire the entire Orioles rotation…
* Damian Moss
…Or maybe not.
* Miguel Batista
Batista quietly put together a very solid year: 3.54 ERA, .706 OPSA. Those numbers are even more impressive considering the fact the Batista pitched in a hitters park. Let’s look at his park adjusted numbers: his ERA+ was 132 (100 being park adjusted league average), which ranked him 10th in the NL. He’d be a good pick up.
* Juan Cruz
I see the Cubs dealing Cruz this winter. The Cubs brain trust will likely place themselves in the same trap they put themselves in this past offseason. With four righthanders in the rotation, they will pursue a lefty to round out the rotation because, well, you have to have a lefty in your rotation because you just do, ok?
* Cory Lidle
He’s streakier than Soy Bomb man and he’s coming off a poor year. However, Lidle has shown flashes of great pitching (post ASB 2001, post ASB 2002). He’d be a decent gamble to take if he would come cheaply.
* Dustin Hermanson
Why not? He pitched well in limited action with the Giants (3.00 ERA in 39 IP). Let him fight for a spot in Spring Training.
If Jim Brower is promoted to the rotation, Hermanson could be the new long man out of the bullpen. In the next post we'll look at other bullpen possibilities.
A Pitcher’s Paradise?
Interestingly enough, Pacific Bell Park, which is considered to be an extreme pitchers park, played neutrally this year. Per Baseball Reference, PBP’s park factor for 2003 was 99 for Batters and 100 for pitchers (100 being neutral). Here is the home/road OPS differential of select Giants players. The first number is the players’ home OPS, the second is his road OPS, and the last number is the difference.
Ray Durham .875/.736 +.139
JT Snow .732/.894 -.162
Marquis Grissom .809/.772 +.037
Homerun Jesus 1.374/1.177 +.197
Edgardo Alfonzo .722/.728 -.006
Rich Aurilia .800/.671 +.129
Benito Santiago .705/.795 -.090
Jose Cruz, Jr. .808/.752 +.056
Neifi Perez ..560/.693 -.133
Andres Galarraga .838/.843 -.005
Pedro Feliz .734/.855 -.121
Three Dots
…The Baseball Gods’ Department of Irony really, really outdid themselves this time. Now the story of game three will be: Jose Cruz, Jr., who won a Gold Glove for his defensive play in the regular season, dropped a routine fly ball in the eleventh inning which lead to the Marlins’ winning run…
***
…I was a little surprised to read this blurb on mlb.com, which reports that the Braves will be cutting payroll by “close to $30 million.” Yes, $30 million. Does this take the Braves out of the Sheffield sweepstakes?…
***
…Lastly, on this Veteran’s Day, let’s take a moment to pay tribute to the men and women who have served or are currently serving in our Armed Forces. We salute you for everything you’ve done to fight for freedom and protect our way of life.
There is a headline you probably will not be seeing this winter, unless, of course, the Maddux in question is Mike Maddux. The Giants have at least one open rotation spot and they need to fill it relatively cheaply. Let’s look at some starters who won’t break the bank.
* Freddy Garcia
Ah, screw it, budget be damned. According to Peter Gammons, the arbitration eligible Garcia could be moved this winter. Both of Garcia’s main weaknesses, giving up gopher balls and struggling against lefties, would be neutralized by pitching in Pac Bell Park. Certainly all pitchers benefit from the pitching friendly confines of Pac Bell, but Garcia would prosper more so than others.
* Pet Hentgen
Hentgen could be a good risk to take, as he was a pretty good pitcher in the second half of the season. Also, the rule of thumb for pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery is that it takes them two full years after the surgery to return to normal. Of course “normal” for a 35-year-old might not be that great, but I still think Hentgen could be above average next year. Also, Ken Rosenthal reports that a few other teams are interested in Hentgen.
* Jason Johnson
Per Peter Gammons, the Giants wanted to acquire Johnson at the trading deadline as part of a larger deal with Baltimore. Johnson is arbitration eligible and could be non-tendered. His numbers are very bland (10-10, 4.18 ERA, 104 ERA+), but they’re bland in an Andy Benes kind of way, and not in an Alan Benes kind of way.
* Scott Erickson
Apparently, Erickson wants to play for the Giants. He’d be a non-roster invitee and would likely start the year in the minors. I can’t wait for the black hightops giveaway day.
* Kurt Ainsworth
While we’re at it, the Giants may as well acquire the entire Orioles rotation…
* Damian Moss
…Or maybe not.
* Miguel Batista
Batista quietly put together a very solid year: 3.54 ERA, .706 OPSA. Those numbers are even more impressive considering the fact the Batista pitched in a hitters park. Let’s look at his park adjusted numbers: his ERA+ was 132 (100 being park adjusted league average), which ranked him 10th in the NL. He’d be a good pick up.
* Juan Cruz
I see the Cubs dealing Cruz this winter. The Cubs brain trust will likely place themselves in the same trap they put themselves in this past offseason. With four righthanders in the rotation, they will pursue a lefty to round out the rotation because, well, you have to have a lefty in your rotation because you just do, ok?
* Cory Lidle
He’s streakier than Soy Bomb man and he’s coming off a poor year. However, Lidle has shown flashes of great pitching (post ASB 2001, post ASB 2002). He’d be a decent gamble to take if he would come cheaply.
* Dustin Hermanson
Why not? He pitched well in limited action with the Giants (3.00 ERA in 39 IP). Let him fight for a spot in Spring Training.
If Jim Brower is promoted to the rotation, Hermanson could be the new long man out of the bullpen. In the next post we'll look at other bullpen possibilities.
A Pitcher’s Paradise?
Interestingly enough, Pacific Bell Park, which is considered to be an extreme pitchers park, played neutrally this year. Per Baseball Reference, PBP’s park factor for 2003 was 99 for Batters and 100 for pitchers (100 being neutral). Here is the home/road OPS differential of select Giants players. The first number is the players’ home OPS, the second is his road OPS, and the last number is the difference.
Ray Durham .875/.736 +.139
JT Snow .732/.894 -.162
Marquis Grissom .809/.772 +.037
Homerun Jesus 1.374/1.177 +.197
Edgardo Alfonzo .722/.728 -.006
Rich Aurilia .800/.671 +.129
Benito Santiago .705/.795 -.090
Jose Cruz, Jr. .808/.752 +.056
Neifi Perez ..560/.693 -.133
Andres Galarraga .838/.843 -.005
Pedro Feliz .734/.855 -.121
Three Dots
…The Baseball Gods’ Department of Irony really, really outdid themselves this time. Now the story of game three will be: Jose Cruz, Jr., who won a Gold Glove for his defensive play in the regular season, dropped a routine fly ball in the eleventh inning which lead to the Marlins’ winning run…
***
…I was a little surprised to read this blurb on mlb.com, which reports that the Braves will be cutting payroll by “close to $30 million.” Yes, $30 million. Does this take the Braves out of the Sheffield sweepstakes?…
***
…Lastly, on this Veteran’s Day, let’s take a moment to pay tribute to the men and women who have served or are currently serving in our Armed Forces. We salute you for everything you’ve done to fight for freedom and protect our way of life.
|
Saturday, November 01, 2003
The Shortstops
Will Rich Aurilia re-sign with the Giants? Will Neifarious post an OPS over .650? If Neifi is the starter, who will be his backup? Will Cody Ransom get a shot? The Giants 2004 SS situation is full of question marks. Fortunately for Giants fans, I have all the answers. In no particular order the answers to these questions, and most every set of questions for that matter, are yes, no, no, and drugs killed Laura Palmer, ya dummy.
If you’ve been reading this site for any length of time, you’ve probably guessed that I am not the biggest Neifi Perez fan. This site didn’t exist when the Giants brain trust flushed over four million bucks down the toilet last winter in the form of the Neifarious signing, so lets take a moment to criticize the Giants front office.
Trying to defend his indefensible signing of Neifi, Brian Sabean uttered one of the silliest things he, or any GM, has ever been quoted as saying.
"When you have a switch-hitter who plays shortstop and second base, it's almost like you have four players."
Ok…you can stop laughing…now take a deep breath and let that statement sink in…signing Neifi Perez is like signing four players? Well, sure. Unfortunately for the Giants and their fans, those four players are Duane Kuiper, Jody Reed, Steve Jeltz, and Shooty Babitt.
Let’s take a look at some other candidates who will could potentially save us from the unspeakable horrors of watching Neifi hack away for 500+ ABs next year.
* Rich Aurilia
Aurilia could be the Brad Fullmer of 2004. Like Fullmer, Aurilia is a decent, but not spectacular player. In last year’s free agent market, Fullmer discovered that there weren’t any teams willing to shell out $4MM for his skills, so he opted to re-signed with the Angels and took an enormous pay cut to do so. Similarly, I can’t imagine that teams will be lining up to throw multi-year contracts Rich Aurilia’s way.
In his SS post, Waiting for Boof, explained the possibility of Aurilia re-signing with the G-men much better than I can. So check out his take on the SS market, complete with a chart, an Aunt Augustina Aurilia anecdote, and more.
* Alex Gonzalez
Yeah, but which Alex Gonzalez - the one on the Cubs or the one on the Marlins? It doesn’t matter. They’re both better than Neifi.
* David Eckstein
The pickings are officially slim. In this case, they’re slim and short.
Eckstein’s days with the Halos could be numbered as Anaheim’s new owner could be looking at making a splash free agent signing such as Miguel Tejada or Kaz Matsui. Eckstein hits for a fairly decent average, but he doesn’t walk much and, of course, doesn’t hit for power. He also has just slightly more defensive range than the Rock of Gibralter. However, he is a friend of Superman and he might come cheap.
* Carlos Guillen
If the Mariners are able to sign Kaz Matsui, they could non-tender Guillen. Guillen is a switch hitter who has played shortstop, second base, and third base. So, signing Guillen would be like signing six players!
Seriously, I’m a fan of Guillen and he’d be a decent fit with the Giants if he isn’t too expensive. His raw numbers (career .264/.335/.383) are fairly bland, but Guillen was above league average (.274 EqA) in 2003. Also, Guillen has improved in each of the last four seasons.
* Rey Ordonez
Ok, that just wasn’t funny.
* Jose Uribe
Now that would be funny.
* Orlando Cabrera
He was a fairly mediocre offensive player before having a very productive 2003 season. At age 28, he posted an EqA of .276, despite having a career EqA of .244 (.260 being league average). He’s also regarded as a solid defensive player. He’d be a bit of a risk for a multiyear deal, in the event that 2003 was just a flash in the pan, but I think some other team (the Dodgers?) will give him just that.
Ok, I don’t have all the answers. With a gun at my head, I’d guess that Aurilia will re-sign with the Giants, only because the Neifi alternative is so frightening, but that may just be wishful thinking on my part. Who knows? Maybe Neifi will get the gig full time and post a .850 OPS. If he does, then the four players Brian Sabean referred to will undoubtedly be the Four Horseman of the Apocalypse.
It’s Easy as…
Elias Sports’ free agent compensation classifications are out:
Type A Free Agents – Sidney Ponson, Benito Santiago, Rich Aurilia, Tim Worrell
Type B Free Agents – Jose Cruz, Eric Young
Type C Free Agents – JT Snow, Andres Galarraga
Hmm…I’m not sure where I wanted to go with this, other than to point out that the Giants will likely net themselves an extra draft pick or two.
The scenarios are endless given the fact that we don’t know who the Giants will offer salary arbitration, what free agents they’ll be targeting and if those free agents will be offered arbitration, not to mention which free agents will arrive and depart before December 7. But, given their large number of free agents and their tight budget which limits their ability to sign multiple, quality free agents, its tough to envision a scenario in which the Giants don’t come out ahead at least one draft pick.
That’s my story.
Three Dots, Two Bad Jokes
I wanted to dress up as Neifi Perez for Halloween but I decided against it because I couldn’t decide what type of fabric could best simulate a black hole…errr, I mean four black holes…
***
…Hey, the 49ers are looking for someone who can boot a ball in a late game, pressure situation. Nah, too easy...
***
…Lastly, everyone check out Bryan Smith’s “Wait ‘Til Next Year” site (which is quickly becoming one of my favorite hot stove reads, by the way) for his take on the 2004 Giants. Bryan, and a cast of thousands, including Matthew Durham of the excellent Southpaw blog, have some insightful comments on the Giants potential off season moves.
Will Rich Aurilia re-sign with the Giants? Will Neifarious post an OPS over .650? If Neifi is the starter, who will be his backup? Will Cody Ransom get a shot? The Giants 2004 SS situation is full of question marks. Fortunately for Giants fans, I have all the answers. In no particular order the answers to these questions, and most every set of questions for that matter, are yes, no, no, and drugs killed Laura Palmer, ya dummy.
If you’ve been reading this site for any length of time, you’ve probably guessed that I am not the biggest Neifi Perez fan. This site didn’t exist when the Giants brain trust flushed over four million bucks down the toilet last winter in the form of the Neifarious signing, so lets take a moment to criticize the Giants front office.
Trying to defend his indefensible signing of Neifi, Brian Sabean uttered one of the silliest things he, or any GM, has ever been quoted as saying.
"When you have a switch-hitter who plays shortstop and second base, it's almost like you have four players."
Ok…you can stop laughing…now take a deep breath and let that statement sink in…signing Neifi Perez is like signing four players? Well, sure. Unfortunately for the Giants and their fans, those four players are Duane Kuiper, Jody Reed, Steve Jeltz, and Shooty Babitt.
Let’s take a look at some other candidates who will could potentially save us from the unspeakable horrors of watching Neifi hack away for 500+ ABs next year.
* Rich Aurilia
Aurilia could be the Brad Fullmer of 2004. Like Fullmer, Aurilia is a decent, but not spectacular player. In last year’s free agent market, Fullmer discovered that there weren’t any teams willing to shell out $4MM for his skills, so he opted to re-signed with the Angels and took an enormous pay cut to do so. Similarly, I can’t imagine that teams will be lining up to throw multi-year contracts Rich Aurilia’s way.
In his SS post, Waiting for Boof, explained the possibility of Aurilia re-signing with the G-men much better than I can. So check out his take on the SS market, complete with a chart, an Aunt Augustina Aurilia anecdote, and more.
* Alex Gonzalez
Yeah, but which Alex Gonzalez - the one on the Cubs or the one on the Marlins? It doesn’t matter. They’re both better than Neifi.
* David Eckstein
The pickings are officially slim. In this case, they’re slim and short.
Eckstein’s days with the Halos could be numbered as Anaheim’s new owner could be looking at making a splash free agent signing such as Miguel Tejada or Kaz Matsui. Eckstein hits for a fairly decent average, but he doesn’t walk much and, of course, doesn’t hit for power. He also has just slightly more defensive range than the Rock of Gibralter. However, he is a friend of Superman and he might come cheap.
* Carlos Guillen
If the Mariners are able to sign Kaz Matsui, they could non-tender Guillen. Guillen is a switch hitter who has played shortstop, second base, and third base. So, signing Guillen would be like signing six players!
Seriously, I’m a fan of Guillen and he’d be a decent fit with the Giants if he isn’t too expensive. His raw numbers (career .264/.335/.383) are fairly bland, but Guillen was above league average (.274 EqA) in 2003. Also, Guillen has improved in each of the last four seasons.
* Rey Ordonez
Ok, that just wasn’t funny.
* Jose Uribe
Now that would be funny.
* Orlando Cabrera
He was a fairly mediocre offensive player before having a very productive 2003 season. At age 28, he posted an EqA of .276, despite having a career EqA of .244 (.260 being league average). He’s also regarded as a solid defensive player. He’d be a bit of a risk for a multiyear deal, in the event that 2003 was just a flash in the pan, but I think some other team (the Dodgers?) will give him just that.
Ok, I don’t have all the answers. With a gun at my head, I’d guess that Aurilia will re-sign with the Giants, only because the Neifi alternative is so frightening, but that may just be wishful thinking on my part. Who knows? Maybe Neifi will get the gig full time and post a .850 OPS. If he does, then the four players Brian Sabean referred to will undoubtedly be the Four Horseman of the Apocalypse.
It’s Easy as…
Elias Sports’ free agent compensation classifications are out:
Type A Free Agents – Sidney Ponson, Benito Santiago, Rich Aurilia, Tim Worrell
Type B Free Agents – Jose Cruz, Eric Young
Type C Free Agents – JT Snow, Andres Galarraga
Hmm…I’m not sure where I wanted to go with this, other than to point out that the Giants will likely net themselves an extra draft pick or two.
The scenarios are endless given the fact that we don’t know who the Giants will offer salary arbitration, what free agents they’ll be targeting and if those free agents will be offered arbitration, not to mention which free agents will arrive and depart before December 7. But, given their large number of free agents and their tight budget which limits their ability to sign multiple, quality free agents, its tough to envision a scenario in which the Giants don’t come out ahead at least one draft pick.
That’s my story.
Three Dots, Two Bad Jokes
I wanted to dress up as Neifi Perez for Halloween but I decided against it because I couldn’t decide what type of fabric could best simulate a black hole…errr, I mean four black holes…
***
…Hey, the 49ers are looking for someone who can boot a ball in a late game, pressure situation. Nah, too easy...
***
…Lastly, everyone check out Bryan Smith’s “Wait ‘Til Next Year” site (which is quickly becoming one of my favorite hot stove reads, by the way) for his take on the 2004 Giants. Bryan, and a cast of thousands, including Matthew Durham of the excellent Southpaw blog, have some insightful comments on the Giants potential off season moves.
|
Monday, October 27, 2003
Bye, Bye Benny
The Hot Stove Celebration® continues with a look at potential catchers for the 2004 Giants.
I promised myself I would not use this opportunity to rip Benito Santiago for his declining defensive skills. Nor will I trash him for his poor post All-Star break performance, or even bemoan him for publicly demanding a 3 year contract extension during Spring Training. Instead, let’s look back at one of the great games in modern Giants history as we bid farewell to Benny.
2002 NLCS Game 4. The Cards took Game 3 and were riding a wave of momentum into Game 4. That night’s starting pitcher for the Giants, Augustus Gloop, got off to a rocky start (surprise!) and the Giants were quickly in a 2-0 hole. The middle innings are all a blur and are a minor footnote to the story anyway. The game was 2-2 and headed into the bottom of the eighth. With two outs and the bases empty, Tony LaRussa intentionally walked Barry Bonds, setting the stage for the single coolest baseball moment I’ve witnessed in person.
Benito Santiago was able to work the count to 3-2 against Rick White. I remember thinking to myself that if Benito could drive a ball into the gap Bonds could score the go ahead run, since Barry would be running on the payoff pitch.
And drive the ball Benito did. It was a towering fly ball to left field. It was such a high, majestic shot that I didn’t know if it had enough distance to cut through the cool October evening and land in the homerun Promise land. So, I began channeling Carlton Fisk; only I was trying to wave the ball over the fence instead of waving it fair. As the ball took off I began screaming, trying to push the ball into the stands with shear power of my voice. And my pair of bright orange Thunderstix®.
“GET OUTTA HERE! GET OUTTA HERE!”
For a brief moment the overhang made the ball disappear from sight, so I gazed out at Cardinals left fielder Eli Marrero. He kept drifting back until he reached the wall. He looked up and watched the ball land in the bleachers. The Giants were headed to the World Series.
Ahh…those were the days. Back to reality, let’s look at the rundown of available catchers.
* Yorvit Torrealba
In all likelihood, Torrealba will be the Giants Opening Day catcher. I’ll pretend to be an expert on defensive mechanics and say that Torrealba looks great defensively behind the dish. He doesn’t hit a whole lot, but that’s acceptable given his defense and his low salary.
I think the Giants will bring in another catcher to split duties with Torrealba.
* Brent Mayne
The Royals did not exercise Mayne’s 2004 option, making him a free agent. Mayne is on the downside of his career and his 2003 splits of .245/.307/.344 were all below his career averages. He is still regarded as a decent defensive player and could probably be had cheaply.
* Ramon Castro, Mike Redmond
The Marlins are expected to re-sign Ivan Rodriguez, meaning they’ll look to move at least one of their back up catchers. Redmond has a big platoon split - he hits lefties well but struggles against righties. Sound familiar? The Giants don’t need another lefty masher, they need someone who can hit righties.
Castro has some fairly impressive minor league numbers including a .336 27 HR year in 2001 at age 25. As always, the usual PCL offensive disclaimers apply.
* AJ Pierzynski
He may be on the move due to the combination of hot shot catching prospect Joe Mauer and the cheapness of Twins owner Carl Pohlad. I think the Giants will be more in the market for an inexpensive player who will split duties with Torrealba. Pierzynski is arbitration eligible and is due for a sizable raise. I could see Pierzynski being traded to the Pod People.
More Rightfield Ramblings
Sheffield - I overlooked an important dynamic in Gary Sheffield’s impending free agency. Sheffield fired his agent, Scott Boras, and to my knowledge has not hired a new agent, meaning Sheffield will aparently represent himself in contract negotiations. Prediction: teams that try to negotiate with Sheffield early on will lose patience with his high contract demands and move on to target one of the many other RFers on the market.
Also, I’m having trouble coming up with teams that will be in the running for Sheffield. The Braves may try to re-sign him. There are so many rumors flying out of Yankeeville, its tough to keep up with all of them, but their new RF could be anyone from Alfonso Soriano to Sheffield to Bernie Williams to Vlad. The Orioles and Indians will have some room to spend money this offseason, but they’re still rebuilding and are unlikely to spend piles of money on a 35 year old. The Padres, Phillies, and Angels will also be major players in this year’s free agent extravaganza, but those teams are all set in the outfield. The Mets? The D-Rays? I’m stumped.
JD Drew - the more I think about it, the more I believe that Drew will not be back with the Cardinals next year. The Cards already have a very prolific offense and will likely use their financial resources on pitching. As I mentioned in post in September, Tony LaRussa has so little confidence in his bullpen that he actually used Woody Williams out of the pen to try and close a game against the Cubs. Rather than spending $5MM on an arbitration eligible Drew, I think the Cards will go with a cheap RF platoon and spend money on the LaTroy Hawkinses of the world.
Dots O’ Three
More fearless predictions – Tim Worrell and Keith Foulke sign with the Phillies. Tejada signs with the Angels, little Marsui signs with the Mariners…
***
I was the winner of the Giants bloggers MLB playoff pool. Instead of pointing out that I incorrectly picked the eventual World Champs to lose to the Giants, I’d like to take a moment to bask in blogging glory and declare myself to be the MLB Post Season Prognosticating Clutch God ™.
The Hot Stove Celebration® continues with a look at potential catchers for the 2004 Giants.
I promised myself I would not use this opportunity to rip Benito Santiago for his declining defensive skills. Nor will I trash him for his poor post All-Star break performance, or even bemoan him for publicly demanding a 3 year contract extension during Spring Training. Instead, let’s look back at one of the great games in modern Giants history as we bid farewell to Benny.
2002 NLCS Game 4. The Cards took Game 3 and were riding a wave of momentum into Game 4. That night’s starting pitcher for the Giants, Augustus Gloop, got off to a rocky start (surprise!) and the Giants were quickly in a 2-0 hole. The middle innings are all a blur and are a minor footnote to the story anyway. The game was 2-2 and headed into the bottom of the eighth. With two outs and the bases empty, Tony LaRussa intentionally walked Barry Bonds, setting the stage for the single coolest baseball moment I’ve witnessed in person.
Benito Santiago was able to work the count to 3-2 against Rick White. I remember thinking to myself that if Benito could drive a ball into the gap Bonds could score the go ahead run, since Barry would be running on the payoff pitch.
And drive the ball Benito did. It was a towering fly ball to left field. It was such a high, majestic shot that I didn’t know if it had enough distance to cut through the cool October evening and land in the homerun Promise land. So, I began channeling Carlton Fisk; only I was trying to wave the ball over the fence instead of waving it fair. As the ball took off I began screaming, trying to push the ball into the stands with shear power of my voice. And my pair of bright orange Thunderstix®.
“GET OUTTA HERE! GET OUTTA HERE!”
For a brief moment the overhang made the ball disappear from sight, so I gazed out at Cardinals left fielder Eli Marrero. He kept drifting back until he reached the wall. He looked up and watched the ball land in the bleachers. The Giants were headed to the World Series.
Ahh…those were the days. Back to reality, let’s look at the rundown of available catchers.
* Yorvit Torrealba
In all likelihood, Torrealba will be the Giants Opening Day catcher. I’ll pretend to be an expert on defensive mechanics and say that Torrealba looks great defensively behind the dish. He doesn’t hit a whole lot, but that’s acceptable given his defense and his low salary.
I think the Giants will bring in another catcher to split duties with Torrealba.
* Brent Mayne
The Royals did not exercise Mayne’s 2004 option, making him a free agent. Mayne is on the downside of his career and his 2003 splits of .245/.307/.344 were all below his career averages. He is still regarded as a decent defensive player and could probably be had cheaply.
* Ramon Castro, Mike Redmond
The Marlins are expected to re-sign Ivan Rodriguez, meaning they’ll look to move at least one of their back up catchers. Redmond has a big platoon split - he hits lefties well but struggles against righties. Sound familiar? The Giants don’t need another lefty masher, they need someone who can hit righties.
Castro has some fairly impressive minor league numbers including a .336 27 HR year in 2001 at age 25. As always, the usual PCL offensive disclaimers apply.
* AJ Pierzynski
He may be on the move due to the combination of hot shot catching prospect Joe Mauer and the cheapness of Twins owner Carl Pohlad. I think the Giants will be more in the market for an inexpensive player who will split duties with Torrealba. Pierzynski is arbitration eligible and is due for a sizable raise. I could see Pierzynski being traded to the Pod People.
More Rightfield Ramblings
Sheffield - I overlooked an important dynamic in Gary Sheffield’s impending free agency. Sheffield fired his agent, Scott Boras, and to my knowledge has not hired a new agent, meaning Sheffield will aparently represent himself in contract negotiations. Prediction: teams that try to negotiate with Sheffield early on will lose patience with his high contract demands and move on to target one of the many other RFers on the market.
Also, I’m having trouble coming up with teams that will be in the running for Sheffield. The Braves may try to re-sign him. There are so many rumors flying out of Yankeeville, its tough to keep up with all of them, but their new RF could be anyone from Alfonso Soriano to Sheffield to Bernie Williams to Vlad. The Orioles and Indians will have some room to spend money this offseason, but they’re still rebuilding and are unlikely to spend piles of money on a 35 year old. The Padres, Phillies, and Angels will also be major players in this year’s free agent extravaganza, but those teams are all set in the outfield. The Mets? The D-Rays? I’m stumped.
JD Drew - the more I think about it, the more I believe that Drew will not be back with the Cardinals next year. The Cards already have a very prolific offense and will likely use their financial resources on pitching. As I mentioned in post in September, Tony LaRussa has so little confidence in his bullpen that he actually used Woody Williams out of the pen to try and close a game against the Cubs. Rather than spending $5MM on an arbitration eligible Drew, I think the Cards will go with a cheap RF platoon and spend money on the LaTroy Hawkinses of the world.
Dots O’ Three
More fearless predictions – Tim Worrell and Keith Foulke sign with the Phillies. Tejada signs with the Angels, little Marsui signs with the Mariners…
***
I was the winner of the Giants bloggers MLB playoff pool. Instead of pointing out that I incorrectly picked the eventual World Champs to lose to the Giants, I’d like to take a moment to bask in blogging glory and declare myself to be the MLB Post Season Prognosticating Clutch God ™.
|
Wednesday, October 22, 2003
Who’s On First?
The 1B pickins are relatively slim but here’s a rundown of potential 2004 Giants 1B.
* Richie Sexson
Sexson will be the subject of many a trade rumor this offseason, as the Brewers are looking to dump payroll. His $8MM salary is probably too much for the Giants (and if SF spends $8MM on a player it would make more sense to just spend that on a free agent and not give up prospects). Now, would the Brewers be willing to trade Sexson and eat some of his salary? Under normal circumstances, I’d say no. However, considering the fact that Gord Ash is a member of the Brewers front office, the circumstances are anything but normal. Then again, Ash is just the assistant GM. This one’s a longshot.
* Randal Simon
Neifi Perez and Marquis Grissom will have to teach him a thing or two about plate discipline.
* Doug Mientkeiwerniwf^netcz
Minnesota may look to trade or even non-tender him this offseason. The Twins have uber prospect Justin Morneau waiting in the wings, so that could make Mienkhtwqietfciefz expendable. This would be a great pickup for the Giants.
Mientkewoefjodnweif is .279/.371/.415 for his career. A first baseman with a decent average, a good OBP, limited power and a reputation as an excellent defensive player. He may as well change his name to Snow. I’m hoping he does. That way I won’t have to check Yahoo three times for the correct spelling of Mientkie`hy7wetcxiz'.
* Scott Speizio, Eric Karros
If Pac Bell Park has taught us nothing else, it has taught us that baseballs will float in the Cove for about a minute before sinking. However, its unclear how long dead bodies will float before they sink.
* Nick Johnson
I was a little surprised to see this blurb in a NY paper saying Johnson could be moved after the World Series. Rumor has it that if the Yanks lose to the Marlins, there will be a very thorough house cleaning and Lord Steinbrenner may even make the majority of the off season decisions himself. Johnson would be an excellent pickup for the Giants. Johnson is a very useful player (.284/.422/.472) and he’s not yet arbitration eligible, so he’d be a great value.
Filling the 1B spot cheaply could allow the Giants to spend money on RF. Hmm…a 1-5 of Durham, Johnson, Bonds, Sheffield, Alfonzo is the kind of stuff hot stove dreams are made of.
* Hee Seop Choi
The Cubs may bring back Dusty’s dynamic duo of Karros/Simon for their proven veteranness. If so, Choi will the odd man out. Getting a promising prospect like Choi would be quite a coup for the Giants.
* Andres Galarraga, Pedro Feliz, JT Snow
A lot of Giants fans, and baseball fans for that matter, would really, really like to see the Big Cat return for one final farewell tour. The popular thinking is that Cat will return for 2004 in order to hit his 400th career HR. Despite his age, Galarraga is still quite useful and he reamins one of the great lefty mashers in baseball. Come back, Big Cat!
JT Snow will be a free agent and I could see the Giants bringing him back for one more year for about $1.5-$2MM. Watching the likes of Benito Santiago, Neifi Perez, and Marquis Grissom on a regular basis makes one appreciate Snow’s disciplined approach in the batter’s box.
This list of potential Giants first basemen is full of one year stop-gaps and maybes. So why not bring back a fan favorite, an OBP machine, and a great Giant? I should also point out that Snow has publicly stated that he not only wants to re-sign with SF, but he also wants to finish his career as a Giant.
RF Wrap up
In the last post, I didn’t officially endorse any particular RF for the Giants. This was no accident, as I learned my lesson last year after repeatedly advocating that the Giants sign Jose Cruz, Jr. Needless to say, I was excited when the Giants signed him. By late April, I was so enchanted that I was about ready to start polishing off my resume to try and land a job in baseball (well, not really). Then, suddenly and without warning, the cruel reality known as May, June, July, August, September, and most memorably, and most painfully, October reared its ugly head. Oops.
So, this is in no way an official endorsement, but with a gun at my head, I’d go for broke and sign Sheffield. Mainlly because I can’t think of anything more frustrating than watching the opposing team pitch around Bonds and then watch Benito hit a one pitch GIDP.
Bonds will be walked repeatedly regardless of who bats behind him. What the Giants NEED is a POWER hitter who will make the opposition pay for these walks. Go get ‘em Sabes!
BALCO Explained
There’s a lot of misinformation and media sensationalism swirling around the BALCO grand jury investigation, so let's clear some things up. Here is what Victor Conte of BALCO is accused of:
According to anonymous, unnamed sources, Conte allegedly sold some, um, vitamins to some athletes and didn’t report the sales as income to the IRS. He then allegedly sent the profits from the vitamin sales to Ollie North who then allegedly used that money to send arms to rebels in Iran. Then, Conte and Ollie North allegedly conspired to send half of the profits from the arms sales to the Contras in Nicaragua. Then Conte allegedly sent the other half of the profits he made from the arms sales to Hillary Clinton who allegedly used that money to buy some cattle futures from Jeffrey Loria. Then, Loria allegedly used that money to buy the Marlins from John Henry, who in turn used the money to buy the Red Sox. This is all a roundabout way of saying that this mess is Seligula’s fault and that the Red Sox will now suffer from the Curse of the Sandanistas. Makes sense to me.
So, as you can plainly see, this whole ordeal is actually much ado about nothing.
The 1B pickins are relatively slim but here’s a rundown of potential 2004 Giants 1B.
* Richie Sexson
Sexson will be the subject of many a trade rumor this offseason, as the Brewers are looking to dump payroll. His $8MM salary is probably too much for the Giants (and if SF spends $8MM on a player it would make more sense to just spend that on a free agent and not give up prospects). Now, would the Brewers be willing to trade Sexson and eat some of his salary? Under normal circumstances, I’d say no. However, considering the fact that Gord Ash is a member of the Brewers front office, the circumstances are anything but normal. Then again, Ash is just the assistant GM. This one’s a longshot.
* Randal Simon
Neifi Perez and Marquis Grissom will have to teach him a thing or two about plate discipline.
* Doug Mientkeiwerniwf^netcz
Minnesota may look to trade or even non-tender him this offseason. The Twins have uber prospect Justin Morneau waiting in the wings, so that could make Mienkhtwqietfciefz expendable. This would be a great pickup for the Giants.
Mientkewoefjodnweif is .279/.371/.415 for his career. A first baseman with a decent average, a good OBP, limited power and a reputation as an excellent defensive player. He may as well change his name to Snow. I’m hoping he does. That way I won’t have to check Yahoo three times for the correct spelling of Mientkie`hy7wetcxiz'.
* Scott Speizio, Eric Karros
If Pac Bell Park has taught us nothing else, it has taught us that baseballs will float in the Cove for about a minute before sinking. However, its unclear how long dead bodies will float before they sink.
* Nick Johnson
I was a little surprised to see this blurb in a NY paper saying Johnson could be moved after the World Series. Rumor has it that if the Yanks lose to the Marlins, there will be a very thorough house cleaning and Lord Steinbrenner may even make the majority of the off season decisions himself. Johnson would be an excellent pickup for the Giants. Johnson is a very useful player (.284/.422/.472) and he’s not yet arbitration eligible, so he’d be a great value.
Filling the 1B spot cheaply could allow the Giants to spend money on RF. Hmm…a 1-5 of Durham, Johnson, Bonds, Sheffield, Alfonzo is the kind of stuff hot stove dreams are made of.
* Hee Seop Choi
The Cubs may bring back Dusty’s dynamic duo of Karros/Simon for their proven veteranness. If so, Choi will the odd man out. Getting a promising prospect like Choi would be quite a coup for the Giants.
* Andres Galarraga, Pedro Feliz, JT Snow
A lot of Giants fans, and baseball fans for that matter, would really, really like to see the Big Cat return for one final farewell tour. The popular thinking is that Cat will return for 2004 in order to hit his 400th career HR. Despite his age, Galarraga is still quite useful and he reamins one of the great lefty mashers in baseball. Come back, Big Cat!
JT Snow will be a free agent and I could see the Giants bringing him back for one more year for about $1.5-$2MM. Watching the likes of Benito Santiago, Neifi Perez, and Marquis Grissom on a regular basis makes one appreciate Snow’s disciplined approach in the batter’s box.
This list of potential Giants first basemen is full of one year stop-gaps and maybes. So why not bring back a fan favorite, an OBP machine, and a great Giant? I should also point out that Snow has publicly stated that he not only wants to re-sign with SF, but he also wants to finish his career as a Giant.
RF Wrap up
In the last post, I didn’t officially endorse any particular RF for the Giants. This was no accident, as I learned my lesson last year after repeatedly advocating that the Giants sign Jose Cruz, Jr. Needless to say, I was excited when the Giants signed him. By late April, I was so enchanted that I was about ready to start polishing off my resume to try and land a job in baseball (well, not really). Then, suddenly and without warning, the cruel reality known as May, June, July, August, September, and most memorably, and most painfully, October reared its ugly head. Oops.
So, this is in no way an official endorsement, but with a gun at my head, I’d go for broke and sign Sheffield. Mainlly because I can’t think of anything more frustrating than watching the opposing team pitch around Bonds and then watch Benito hit a one pitch GIDP.
Bonds will be walked repeatedly regardless of who bats behind him. What the Giants NEED is a POWER hitter who will make the opposition pay for these walks. Go get ‘em Sabes!
BALCO Explained
There’s a lot of misinformation and media sensationalism swirling around the BALCO grand jury investigation, so let's clear some things up. Here is what Victor Conte of BALCO is accused of:
According to anonymous, unnamed sources, Conte allegedly sold some, um, vitamins to some athletes and didn’t report the sales as income to the IRS. He then allegedly sent the profits from the vitamin sales to Ollie North who then allegedly used that money to send arms to rebels in Iran. Then, Conte and Ollie North allegedly conspired to send half of the profits from the arms sales to the Contras in Nicaragua. Then Conte allegedly sent the other half of the profits he made from the arms sales to Hillary Clinton who allegedly used that money to buy some cattle futures from Jeffrey Loria. Then, Loria allegedly used that money to buy the Marlins from John Henry, who in turn used the money to buy the Red Sox. This is all a roundabout way of saying that this mess is Seligula’s fault and that the Red Sox will now suffer from the Curse of the Sandanistas. Makes sense to me.
So, as you can plainly see, this whole ordeal is actually much ado about nothing.
|
Saturday, October 18, 2003
Rightfield
The best money the Giants will spend this offseason will be the 300K they spend to buyout Merkle Cruz, Jr.’s 2004 option. Giants fans will always rememberClemente Cruz for his botched play in Game 3 of the NLDS, but lets not forget to hate him because of his hitless postseason, his crappy post All-Star Break offense, and his lack of clutchness. Cruz hit just .233/.348/.335 in the second half and for the year hit .189/.346/.357 with RISP.
I’m hoping Merkle stays in the NL so he can hear the wrath of the Pac Bell faithful when he makes his return to SF. Those won’t be “Cruuuz’s” cascading down from the stands. Anyway, let’s look at some other candidates to step through the Giants RF revolving door next year.
* Gary Sheffield
This just makes too much sense for it to actually happen. The Giants need a power hitter to hit behind Bonds. Superman’s best friend in baseball is Gary Sheffield. The Giants have an opening in RF. Sheffield may be willing to take a backloaded contract to play with his buddy. I have the perfect bleacher attire courtesy of a Giants BBQ apron giveaway day at Candlestick. Finding a chef’s hat can’t be that difficult.
Sheffield would also go a long way toward helping the Giants address one of their biggest offensive problems – their inability to hit right handed pitching (as a team they hit .257/.330/.402 against RHP). Sheffield has a bit of a platoon split, but he was still a very solid .327/.410/.535 against righties in 2003 and his career numbers against righties are .295/.398/.524.
He will not resign with the Braves. Why not? Because God hates Sam Hutcheson, which means Sheffield will depart and Merkle Cruz will sign a multi-year contract with the Braves.
* JD Drew
Drew is a possible non-tender by the Cardinals. Drew is an extremely talented player, but he can’t stay healthy to save his baseball life. Drew is almost as good against righties .(306/.390/.534) as Sheffield. However, SBC Telecommunications, Inc. Field (just getting used to it) is murder on lefties not named Barry Bonds. A better way of addressing their lack of offense against right-handed pitching would be to get a righty who hits right handers well (Sheffield).
* Raul Ibanez
The Royals have already announced that they will not be bringing Ibanez back. I remember being impressed with Ibanez during the 4th of July weekend series in 2002 where the Royals played the A’s.
Ibanez put up some pretty decent numbers the last couple of years. .294/.345/.454 with 18HRs and 90 RBI and .319/.371/.485 against righties in 2003. Ibanez had a better 2002 season where he went .294/.346/.537 with 24 HRs and 103 RBI and .300/.363/.582 against righties.
Ibanez did play his home games in the most offensive friendly ballpark in the AL, so lets take a look at his park adjusted numbers. In 2002 (2003 isn’t available yet) his OPS+ (park adjusted OPS where 100 is the league average) was 116. In 2001 it was 112. Not too shabby.
Another park adjusted metric that I trust is Eqa. Ibanez posted an Eqa of .268 in 2003 and .295 in 2002 (.260 being league average). So even after taking park factors into consideration, Ibanez has been an above average offensive player the last couple of seasons. He isn’t as good as his raw numbers would indicate, but he’d be a decent pick up nonetheless.
* Brian Jordan, RonDL White
The good part about acquiring either of them is that when they go on the DL, Todd Linden will get a chance to fine tune his skills in the big leagues.
* Others
Raul Mondesi, Carl Everett, and Jose Guillen are all considered clubhouse nightmares. I could care less about clubhouse dynamics, but the Giants front office puts a lot of stock into chemistry, so I think any one of these three would be a long shot. Shannon Stewart (.307/.364/.459, 13 HRs and 73 RBI) would be a good fit, but the fact that he played over his head the final couple of months of the season will likely drive up his asking price.
Another option would be to sign a CF and shift either him or Grissom to RF. Mike Cameron is a spectacular defensive player and an underrated offensive player. His raw numbers are hurt by playing in the pitcher friendly Safeco Field, so let’s look at his park adjusted numbers. Cameron’s OPS+ was 114 for 2002 and 124 for 2001. His Eqa. was .278 in 2003 and .293 in 2002. He’d be a great pick up. I’m a Kenny Lofton fan and I think he’d be a great value assuming the Giants also add a power bat at 1B or SS.
* Jeffrey Hammonds, Pedro Feliz
Both of them outplayed Cruz the second half of the season and they could be a decent stop-gap if the Giants chose to spend their available money on other positions.
Feliz had 16HR and 48 RBI in only 235ABs this year. I was about to point out that projecting Feliz’s 2003 numbers over a full season, he’d have 35+ HR and 100+ RBI, but then I realized that if I mentioned that, the sample size police would quickly issue a warrant for my arrest. And besides, Feliz still has two major flaws in his game: 1)His inability to hit breaking pitches and 2)His lack of plate discipline.
I can live with a Hammonds/Feliz/Linden combination in RF if the Giants upgrade at 1B and SS. In the next post, we’ll look at 1B options for 2004.
The Postseason Experience Myth
I’ve always suspected that the theory that players with previous post season experience perform better in the playoffs than players lacking post season experience is a bunch of hooey. Michael Wolverton of Baseball Prospectus wrote an excellent column debunking the post season experience myth. He found that players lacking post season experience actually perform better in October than players with playoff experience.
Anecdotally, any fan of the 2003 Giants can state that playoff experience certainly didn’t help them one damn bit in the series against the Marlins. Take the Marquis St. Everhack for example (painful flashback alert!). Grissom had started more post season games in his career than anyone else in that series, yet he made the biggest mental error of the entire series. In game three, he was already in scoring position with the hottest hitter on the Giants in the batter’s box. Grissom thought that situation would be a good time to set the new Giants post season baserunning brain fart record by trying to steal third. On Pudge Rodriguez. Needless to say, not a good idea.
Three Dot DuJour
Fearless offseason predictions: Sidney Ponson re-signs with Baltimore. Damian Moss is non-tendered and re-signs with the Braves. I re-sign with my therapist…
***
Some sad news from LA – Uncle Rupy finally sold the LA Dodgers, thus ending one of the great ownership reigns in modern baseball history (from a Giants fan’s perspective). The spotlight has now turned to LA’s new owner, Frank McCourt. The only thing we know for certain about the Fodgers new owner is that he did not write Angela’s Ashes. Of course that didn’t stop a local asshat with a pen, TJ Simers, from taking to the airwaves this week and declaring that McCourt will be a “Steinbrenner without the Visa Card;” in other words a control freak who won’t spend money. TJ Simers blows more smoke than a Phish groupie, but now would be a great time for him to actually be right about something…
***
I’m coming to terms with another Giants post season loss and I’ve switched into semi-optimist mode. I can’t wait for Spring Training and the first week of the season. The first couple of weeks of 2004 could bring us HR #660, HR #661, and HR #400 (Big Cat, please come back!), not to mention the return of Robb Nen. Buck up Giants fans, we’re only a few months away from Opening Day, yet nearly a full year away from the Giants annual late season meltdown.
The best money the Giants will spend this offseason will be the 300K they spend to buyout Merkle Cruz, Jr.’s 2004 option. Giants fans will always remember
I’m hoping Merkle stays in the NL so he can hear the wrath of the Pac Bell faithful when he makes his return to SF. Those won’t be “Cruuuz’s” cascading down from the stands. Anyway, let’s look at some other candidates to step through the Giants RF revolving door next year.
* Gary Sheffield
This just makes too much sense for it to actually happen. The Giants need a power hitter to hit behind Bonds. Superman’s best friend in baseball is Gary Sheffield. The Giants have an opening in RF. Sheffield may be willing to take a backloaded contract to play with his buddy. I have the perfect bleacher attire courtesy of a Giants BBQ apron giveaway day at Candlestick. Finding a chef’s hat can’t be that difficult.
Sheffield would also go a long way toward helping the Giants address one of their biggest offensive problems – their inability to hit right handed pitching (as a team they hit .257/.330/.402 against RHP). Sheffield has a bit of a platoon split, but he was still a very solid .327/.410/.535 against righties in 2003 and his career numbers against righties are .295/.398/.524.
He will not resign with the Braves. Why not? Because God hates Sam Hutcheson, which means Sheffield will depart and Merkle Cruz will sign a multi-year contract with the Braves.
* JD Drew
Drew is a possible non-tender by the Cardinals. Drew is an extremely talented player, but he can’t stay healthy to save his baseball life. Drew is almost as good against righties .(306/.390/.534) as Sheffield. However, SBC Telecommunications, Inc. Field (just getting used to it) is murder on lefties not named Barry Bonds. A better way of addressing their lack of offense against right-handed pitching would be to get a righty who hits right handers well (Sheffield).
* Raul Ibanez
The Royals have already announced that they will not be bringing Ibanez back. I remember being impressed with Ibanez during the 4th of July weekend series in 2002 where the Royals played the A’s.
Ibanez put up some pretty decent numbers the last couple of years. .294/.345/.454 with 18HRs and 90 RBI and .319/.371/.485 against righties in 2003. Ibanez had a better 2002 season where he went .294/.346/.537 with 24 HRs and 103 RBI and .300/.363/.582 against righties.
Ibanez did play his home games in the most offensive friendly ballpark in the AL, so lets take a look at his park adjusted numbers. In 2002 (2003 isn’t available yet) his OPS+ (park adjusted OPS where 100 is the league average) was 116. In 2001 it was 112. Not too shabby.
Another park adjusted metric that I trust is Eqa. Ibanez posted an Eqa of .268 in 2003 and .295 in 2002 (.260 being league average). So even after taking park factors into consideration, Ibanez has been an above average offensive player the last couple of seasons. He isn’t as good as his raw numbers would indicate, but he’d be a decent pick up nonetheless.
* Brian Jordan, RonDL White
The good part about acquiring either of them is that when they go on the DL, Todd Linden will get a chance to fine tune his skills in the big leagues.
* Others
Raul Mondesi, Carl Everett, and Jose Guillen are all considered clubhouse nightmares. I could care less about clubhouse dynamics, but the Giants front office puts a lot of stock into chemistry, so I think any one of these three would be a long shot. Shannon Stewart (.307/.364/.459, 13 HRs and 73 RBI) would be a good fit, but the fact that he played over his head the final couple of months of the season will likely drive up his asking price.
Another option would be to sign a CF and shift either him or Grissom to RF. Mike Cameron is a spectacular defensive player and an underrated offensive player. His raw numbers are hurt by playing in the pitcher friendly Safeco Field, so let’s look at his park adjusted numbers. Cameron’s OPS+ was 114 for 2002 and 124 for 2001. His Eqa. was .278 in 2003 and .293 in 2002. He’d be a great pick up. I’m a Kenny Lofton fan and I think he’d be a great value assuming the Giants also add a power bat at 1B or SS.
* Jeffrey Hammonds, Pedro Feliz
Both of them outplayed Cruz the second half of the season and they could be a decent stop-gap if the Giants chose to spend their available money on other positions.
Feliz had 16HR and 48 RBI in only 235ABs this year. I was about to point out that projecting Feliz’s 2003 numbers over a full season, he’d have 35+ HR and 100+ RBI, but then I realized that if I mentioned that, the sample size police would quickly issue a warrant for my arrest. And besides, Feliz still has two major flaws in his game: 1)His inability to hit breaking pitches and 2)His lack of plate discipline.
I can live with a Hammonds/Feliz/Linden combination in RF if the Giants upgrade at 1B and SS. In the next post, we’ll look at 1B options for 2004.
The Postseason Experience Myth
I’ve always suspected that the theory that players with previous post season experience perform better in the playoffs than players lacking post season experience is a bunch of hooey. Michael Wolverton of Baseball Prospectus wrote an excellent column debunking the post season experience myth. He found that players lacking post season experience actually perform better in October than players with playoff experience.
Anecdotally, any fan of the 2003 Giants can state that playoff experience certainly didn’t help them one damn bit in the series against the Marlins. Take the Marquis St. Everhack for example (painful flashback alert!). Grissom had started more post season games in his career than anyone else in that series, yet he made the biggest mental error of the entire series. In game three, he was already in scoring position with the hottest hitter on the Giants in the batter’s box. Grissom thought that situation would be a good time to set the new Giants post season baserunning brain fart record by trying to steal third. On Pudge Rodriguez. Needless to say, not a good idea.
Three Dot DuJour
Fearless offseason predictions: Sidney Ponson re-signs with Baltimore. Damian Moss is non-tendered and re-signs with the Braves. I re-sign with my therapist…
***
Some sad news from LA – Uncle Rupy finally sold the LA Dodgers, thus ending one of the great ownership reigns in modern baseball history (from a Giants fan’s perspective). The spotlight has now turned to LA’s new owner, Frank McCourt. The only thing we know for certain about the Fodgers new owner is that he did not write Angela’s Ashes. Of course that didn’t stop a local asshat with a pen, TJ Simers, from taking to the airwaves this week and declaring that McCourt will be a “Steinbrenner without the Visa Card;” in other words a control freak who won’t spend money. TJ Simers blows more smoke than a Phish groupie, but now would be a great time for him to actually be right about something…
***
I’m coming to terms with another Giants post season loss and I’ve switched into semi-optimist mode. I can’t wait for Spring Training and the first week of the season. The first couple of weeks of 2004 could bring us HR #660, HR #661, and HR #400 (Big Cat, please come back!), not to mention the return of Robb Nen. Buck up Giants fans, we’re only a few months away from Opening Day, yet nearly a full year away from the Giants annual late season meltdown.
|
Monday, October 13, 2003
Hot Stove Fever
As part of the Hot Stove celebration, I’ve given the site another minor facelift. Plastic surgery really is addictive. Anyway, the site now has a testimonials section, as well as a quote du jour from baseball's most eloquent stars. I basically ripped off the testimonial idea from Larry Mahnken’s Replacement Level Yankee Weblog. That site is one of the coolest baseball sites out there and I want to be like the cool kids.
I’ve also added links to two new Giants weblogs – Class or the Game? and Wrigleyville Giant.
Speaking of make overs, over the next couple of weeks, I’ll be posting rampant speculation about the Giants offseason moves. So lets fire up the Hot Stove!
The Parameters
The Giants already have 9 veterans under contract for next year for about $60MM. The payroll next year will be approximately $75MM.
Courtesy of Joe Roderick of the Contra Costa Times, here are the salaries of the 9 Giants under contract for next year. Barry Bonds $16MM, Ray Durham $7.2, Edgardo Alfonzo $6.5, Grissom $2, Neifarious $2.75, Jason Schmidt $8.5, Rueter $4, Christiansen $2.3, Nen $9 (player option) for a total of $58.25MM.
Depending on the methodology for calculating payroll, one can get slightly different total than $58.25. Roderick’s calculations may be different from other calculations depending on how performance bonuses, deferred salary, interest from deferred salary, and signing bonuses are counted. We’ll just take a nice round number and say that these 9 veterans will make about $60MM. Fair enough?
The G-men will also have at least 4 players making the league minimum. Yorvit Torrealba, Joe Nathan, Jerome Williams, and Kevin Correia are all likely to be on the 25 man roster and each will make the league minimum of $300,000. That’s $1.2MM.
The Giants will have about $14MM to spend on the remaining 12 roster spots. Over the next couple of weeks, we’ll examine different ways of spending this money.
Getting This Out of the Way Now
*The Giants will NOT sign Vladimir Guerrero*
"Vlad is a free agent after 2003. The Giants should get him."
If I had a nickel for every time a Giants fan has muttered that phrase, or a slight variation thereof, I could fill the left field coke bottle full of change and donate the proceeds to the Safeway Spendthrift so he could actaully sign Bad Vlad.
Technically, the Giants probably could afford Guerrero, but they’d have to spend every penny of their available budget on Vlad and then fill the rest of the roster with 300K bonus babies.
Likewise, I could technically afford to live in Beverly Hills (well, east Beverly Hills). Of course, I’d have to sell my car, my computer, my clothes, my furniture, and begin embezzling money from my employer, but I could technically afford to live there. The only downside is that I’d be a hungry, naked, computerless felon whotakes public transportation walks to work.
The point is this – if the Giants spend $13MM on one player, the rest of the roster will take a hit. If SF signs Vlad (they won’t), barring a ridiculously backloaded contract, the Giants will be unable to afford any other free agents and they’d have to non-tender all of their arbitration eligible players. Repeat after me – the Giants will not sign Vladimir Guerrero.
In the next post, we’ll look at more realistic options in RF.
As part of the Hot Stove celebration, I’ve given the site another minor facelift. Plastic surgery really is addictive. Anyway, the site now has a testimonials section, as well as a quote du jour from baseball's most eloquent stars. I basically ripped off the testimonial idea from Larry Mahnken’s Replacement Level Yankee Weblog. That site is one of the coolest baseball sites out there and I want to be like the cool kids.
I’ve also added links to two new Giants weblogs – Class or the Game? and Wrigleyville Giant.
Speaking of make overs, over the next couple of weeks, I’ll be posting rampant speculation about the Giants offseason moves. So lets fire up the Hot Stove!
The Parameters
The Giants already have 9 veterans under contract for next year for about $60MM. The payroll next year will be approximately $75MM.
Courtesy of Joe Roderick of the Contra Costa Times, here are the salaries of the 9 Giants under contract for next year. Barry Bonds $16MM, Ray Durham $7.2, Edgardo Alfonzo $6.5, Grissom $2, Neifarious $2.75, Jason Schmidt $8.5, Rueter $4, Christiansen $2.3, Nen $9 (player option) for a total of $58.25MM.
Depending on the methodology for calculating payroll, one can get slightly different total than $58.25. Roderick’s calculations may be different from other calculations depending on how performance bonuses, deferred salary, interest from deferred salary, and signing bonuses are counted. We’ll just take a nice round number and say that these 9 veterans will make about $60MM. Fair enough?
The G-men will also have at least 4 players making the league minimum. Yorvit Torrealba, Joe Nathan, Jerome Williams, and Kevin Correia are all likely to be on the 25 man roster and each will make the league minimum of $300,000. That’s $1.2MM.
The Giants will have about $14MM to spend on the remaining 12 roster spots. Over the next couple of weeks, we’ll examine different ways of spending this money.
Getting This Out of the Way Now
*The Giants will NOT sign Vladimir Guerrero*
"Vlad is a free agent after 2003. The Giants should get him."
If I had a nickel for every time a Giants fan has muttered that phrase, or a slight variation thereof, I could fill the left field coke bottle full of change and donate the proceeds to the Safeway Spendthrift so he could actaully sign Bad Vlad.
Technically, the Giants probably could afford Guerrero, but they’d have to spend every penny of their available budget on Vlad and then fill the rest of the roster with 300K bonus babies.
Likewise, I could technically afford to live in Beverly Hills (well, east Beverly Hills). Of course, I’d have to sell my car, my computer, my clothes, my furniture, and begin embezzling money from my employer, but I could technically afford to live there. The only downside is that I’d be a hungry, naked, computerless felon who
The point is this – if the Giants spend $13MM on one player, the rest of the roster will take a hit. If SF signs Vlad (they won’t), barring a ridiculously backloaded contract, the Giants will be unable to afford any other free agents and they’d have to non-tender all of their arbitration eligible players. Repeat after me – the Giants will not sign Vladimir Guerrero.
In the next post, we’ll look at more realistic options in RF.
|
Tuesday, October 07, 2003
The Load Out
To add injury to insult, Jason Schmidt will require off season surgery to repair a partially torn ligament in his elbow.
He should be back and ready to go by Spring Training, but we should all hold our collective breath. Remember, Robb Nen was supposed to be ready by Spring Training this year and, well, we know how that story turned out.
Schmidt's injury prohibited him from throwing breaking balls. The fact the he still pitched extemely well, despite having a hand tied behind his back, speaks volumes about just how good his fastball is. It also speaks volumes about just how good a pitcher Jason Schmidt has become.
Eight Men Out
The more you think about it, the more you realize just how dumb it was to carry 12 pitchers for a 5 game series. Joe Sheehan made some excellent points in his NLDS wrap up (credit Steve Shelby for the link).
Not only do you not need that many arms in a Division Series, you don't want that many. You don't want the 11th- and 12th- best pitchers in your organization anywhere near a mound in these games.
Alou carried two very long relievers with no tactical value in Jim Brower and Dustin Hermanson. He carried two situational lefties in Scott Eyre and Jason Christiansen, even though the Marlins have no one worth using a specialist against.
I'll defend selecting Brower for the roster. He is wicked good against righties (.220/.270/.336 and only allowed 16 XBHs in 230+ PAs) and that was a good matchup against the righty dominated Marlin lineup.
Adding Hermanson to the bullpen didn't accomplish much considering the bullpen already had 5 other righties. Futhermore, Hermanson wasn't even used until Game 5. I didn't have a whole lot of confidence in Sidney Ponson, but couldn't Sidney have pitched one inning (instead of Hermanson) in Game 5?
I didn't realize this until I looked it up, but Sheehan is right in saying the Marlins have no one worth using a lefty specialist against. The switch hitting Luis Castillo is better against lefties than righties. Juan Pierre, the only lefty in the Marlins starting lineup, doesn't have much of an OPS platoon split (.710 vs. lefties, .745 vs. righties), and in fact, has a slightly higher batting average vs. southpaws (.311 to .303).
Ok, Todd Hollandsworth is better against righties (.750) than lefties (.669), but Alou didn't even use either of his situational lefties against Hollandsworth (not that he should have) in the series. That leaves the switch hitting Brian Banks and Lenny Harris as the only other lefties on the roster. If the bullpen can't retire Lenny F. Harris in a critical situation (Nathan couldn't in Game 2) or Brian Banks, then they don't deserve to win.
Having one situational lefty on the post season roster was probably excessive, let alone two.
Three Dot DuJour
Usually, the network broadcasting a playoff series will show at least a cursory shot of the owner. Or, in FOX's case, they'll show Jackie Autrie about a dozen times per game. ESPN showed Peter Magowan a couple of times but I don't recall them showing Jeffrey Loria. Did Loria even bother to show up to the playoff series?
***
Saturday night I decided to drown in my sorrows and blow off some steam by patronizing some of the fine watering holes in Hermosa Beach. Oddly enough, I ran into quite a number of euphoric Red Sox fans. It was an October evening encounter between a Giants fan and Red Sox fans and they were the ones who were jubilant. Any fan with a sense of baseball history understands just how pathetic this is. I didn't know whether to laugh, cry, or curl up in the fetal position and begin sobbing. So instead, I just ordered another drink...
***
The Neifi Alert status has been raised to level red. As of right now, Neifi Perez is the only SS under contract with the Giants next year. Scary. I may need to order several more drinks to come to terms with the phrase, "Opening Day Shortstop, Neifi Perez."
To add injury to insult, Jason Schmidt will require off season surgery to repair a partially torn ligament in his elbow.
He should be back and ready to go by Spring Training, but we should all hold our collective breath. Remember, Robb Nen was supposed to be ready by Spring Training this year and, well, we know how that story turned out.
Schmidt's injury prohibited him from throwing breaking balls. The fact the he still pitched extemely well, despite having a hand tied behind his back, speaks volumes about just how good his fastball is. It also speaks volumes about just how good a pitcher Jason Schmidt has become.
Eight Men Out
The more you think about it, the more you realize just how dumb it was to carry 12 pitchers for a 5 game series. Joe Sheehan made some excellent points in his NLDS wrap up (credit Steve Shelby for the link).
Not only do you not need that many arms in a Division Series, you don't want that many. You don't want the 11th- and 12th- best pitchers in your organization anywhere near a mound in these games.
Alou carried two very long relievers with no tactical value in Jim Brower and Dustin Hermanson. He carried two situational lefties in Scott Eyre and Jason Christiansen, even though the Marlins have no one worth using a specialist against.
I'll defend selecting Brower for the roster. He is wicked good against righties (.220/.270/.336 and only allowed 16 XBHs in 230+ PAs) and that was a good matchup against the righty dominated Marlin lineup.
Adding Hermanson to the bullpen didn't accomplish much considering the bullpen already had 5 other righties. Futhermore, Hermanson wasn't even used until Game 5. I didn't have a whole lot of confidence in Sidney Ponson, but couldn't Sidney have pitched one inning (instead of Hermanson) in Game 5?
I didn't realize this until I looked it up, but Sheehan is right in saying the Marlins have no one worth using a lefty specialist against. The switch hitting Luis Castillo is better against lefties than righties. Juan Pierre, the only lefty in the Marlins starting lineup, doesn't have much of an OPS platoon split (.710 vs. lefties, .745 vs. righties), and in fact, has a slightly higher batting average vs. southpaws (.311 to .303).
Ok, Todd Hollandsworth is better against righties (.750) than lefties (.669), but Alou didn't even use either of his situational lefties against Hollandsworth (not that he should have) in the series. That leaves the switch hitting Brian Banks and Lenny Harris as the only other lefties on the roster. If the bullpen can't retire Lenny F. Harris in a critical situation (Nathan couldn't in Game 2) or Brian Banks, then they don't deserve to win.
Having one situational lefty on the post season roster was probably excessive, let alone two.
Three Dot DuJour
Usually, the network broadcasting a playoff series will show at least a cursory shot of the owner. Or, in FOX's case, they'll show Jackie Autrie about a dozen times per game. ESPN showed Peter Magowan a couple of times but I don't recall them showing Jeffrey Loria. Did Loria even bother to show up to the playoff series?
***
Saturday night I decided to drown in my sorrows and blow off some steam by patronizing some of the fine watering holes in Hermosa Beach. Oddly enough, I ran into quite a number of euphoric Red Sox fans. It was an October evening encounter between a Giants fan and Red Sox fans and they were the ones who were jubilant. Any fan with a sense of baseball history understands just how pathetic this is. I didn't know whether to laugh, cry, or curl up in the fetal position and begin sobbing. So instead, I just ordered another drink...
***
The Neifi Alert status has been raised to level red. As of right now, Neifi Perez is the only SS under contract with the Giants next year. Scary. I may need to order several more drinks to come to terms with the phrase, "Opening Day Shortstop, Neifi Perez."
|
Sunday, October 05, 2003
Untitled
My tortured baseball soul can’t take this anymore. Our beloved Giants teased us with a great season and failed to reach the great baseball Promiseland. Again.
This year was particularly difficult because of the roller coaster of emotions associated with the NLDS. Anxiety, nervousness, anger, frustration, joy, relief, despondency, humiliation; and all that was just the last hour of game 3.
There is no joy in the Fog City, there is no joy in my corner of LA, the wire-to-wire division champs have been eliminated.
Westwood Blues Interactive
1) Which NLDS moment was the most frustrating?
a) JT Snow getting thrown out at home.
b) Sidney Ponson unable to hold a lead.
c) SF going 2 for 2,874,495 with RISP in game 3.
d) Watching Jose Cruz, Jr in the field.
e) Watching Jose Cruz, Jr. in the batter’s box.
f) Another F-rod postseason meltdown.
g) Pudge’s game winning hit.
h) Cabrera’s game winning hit.
i) Derek Lee scoring from first on a single.
j) Listening to Rick Sutcliffe.
k) Grissom getting thrown out at third.
l) Other, please specify.
2) How are you planning on killing yourself?
a) A fifth of vodka, a bottle of Jack, a pint of yeager, a Long Island, an Irish car bomb, and a dozen rapid fire sake bombs.
b) Strapping yourself to a chair and watching video of all of Neifi Perez’s ABs. Let nature take its course.
c) Donning a red bandana and taking a midnight stroll through McCarthur Park, flashing gang signals at passerbys.
d) Walking around the Dodger Stadium parking lot with a Giants hat. (sorry)
e) Other, please specify
3) Send in your ranting, bitter e-mails! Here is one I got from frustrated Giants fan Jeff, BEFORE the two games in South Florida.
It's deja vu x 2....a combination of '97 and '00. I guarantee we lose both games in Florida. We will NEVER, EVER, NEVER win the WS. Not in my lifetime or anyone else's.
When they announced Benard would be having surgery and unavailable for the postseason, I actually had hope for us.
"This....This is a truly a sign from God" I said. Wrong again. The only question now is
just how painful the G Men will make it for us. I forsee excrutiating pain. Think final week of the '93 season....or game 7 of the NLCS in '87.
And to add insult to injury the Niners are pathetic and the Warriors are the Warriors. How do the Sharks look? Is this what we've been reduced to? HOCKEY??!!! God help us.
Flashbacks Redux
Painful flashbacks? Recipe for 2003 NLDS Games 3 and 4: Take a cup of 2002 WS Game 6, a teaspoon of 2000 NLDS Game 2, a cup of 1997 NLDS Game 1, a cup of 1997 NLDS Game 2, and a dash of 1908 one game playoff. Mix thoroughly. Lastly, and most importantly, add one enormous, steaming pile of shit. Serves 25.
This series was so similar to the 1997 NLDS its scary. Late inning magic from the Fish and bullpen implosions by the Giants; Miguel Cabrera is the new Devon White.
Felix Rodriguez has morphed into a walking can of gas in two of the Giants most recent torturing post season losses in recent memory. Let’s make it three.
Jose Cruz really outdid himself this time. Cruz decided to accomplish the ultimate painful flashback trifecta in this series. Hitting like Reggie Sanders, fielding like Candy Maldonado and Fred Snodgrass, and late inning dramatics like Fred Merkle. It takes true talent to not only relive recent Giants post season misery, but to also relive a Giants post season debacle of 95 fucking years ago.
Marquis Grissom wasn’t content with just reliving previous Giants post season failures. From his extensive menu of painful Atlanta Braves post season flashbacks, Grissom decided to channel the baserunning prowess of Lonnie Smith. You do not steal third on Pudge. Ever.
JT Snow proved the theory that lefties are indeed more creative than righties. In their post season history, the Giants have never been eliminated on a play at home. Snow created a brand new post season disaster that we undoubtedly relive again in future Octobers. Congrats, you lefty trailblazer.
Game 3 and 4 Random Thoughts
Question for Sutcliffe: Lenny Fucking Harris is considered a late season “acquisition?” Well technically yes, but that’s like saying the bubonic plague was a 14th century European acquisition…
***
If the Giants were to construct a statue of any current Giant, I would’ve guessed they’d salute Barry Bonds. I was wrong. Unfortunately, Rich Aurilia’s bronze likeness didn’t bother to leave the batter’s box in Game 4 in the eighth inning. Run to first, you lazy bum!
***
Ponson trade revisited – when SF acquired Sid, I said one of the things I didn’t like about the trade was that Ponson would only make between 1 and 4 meaningful starts for the Giants. Well, he made one start and he couldn’t hold a lead. Ugh…Hindsight is 20/20 of course, and at the time I did support the trade, but ugh. Just to twist the Aruban knife a little deeper, Kurt Ainsworth will undoubtedly win 15 games next year...
***
The Giants have been eliminated and the Cubs and the Red Sox are still alive...
***
Not starting Schmidt in Game 4 was absolutely the right call. Pitchers not named Curt Schilling do not have a good track record pitching on short rest in the playoffs... Unfortunately, Sugar Ray Williams just didn’t have it the second time through the lineup, much to the dismay of Giants fans and the visitor’s bench at Pro Player Stadium...
***
Its unfair to blame the Giants losses on any one person. Everyone, save Fonzie, Barry, Jason, Jeffrey Hammonds, and Matt Herges, played like shit...
***
On the bright side – Fonzie’s uber clutchness the second half of the season and in the playoffs make me think he’s primed for a huge bounce back year in 2004...
***
Baseball base running pet peeve #1 – the shortest distance between two points is a straight line. A runner rounding third should keep this in mind. Snow took way too big a turn at third base. Ideally, you should hit the inside of the bag and do your best to run as straight as possible down the line to home. His big turn coupled with the fact that he need to slide to the front side of home plate cost him. The fact that Snow is slower than Rich Garces didn’t help matters either...
***
Carrying 12 pitchers for a 5 game series is not a good idea. The Giants didn’t need two lefties out of the bullpen, as the Marlins are a predominantly right handed team. It turns out they did need a pinch runner extraordinaire. Eric Young would’ve scored on Hammonds’ single...
***
MLB should institute a rule that expansion teams should suck for at least 15-20 years before they can win a championship. It just doesn’t seem right that generic teams like the Marlins and the sixteenandahalfbacks can fly a World Championship banner, while teams with richer history, better fans, longer suffering fans, and a longer standing place in the community continue their respective World Series droughts. I know fans in Chicago, Cleveland, Seattle, and Boston agree with me.
***
As the Southpaw points out, the Giants failed to hit a HR in the four game series. This is yet another reason SF needs to sign a slugger in the offseason...
***
This site will change its name back to Westwood Blues once the requisite two week mourning period for post season tank jobs has expired. I thought about changing the background to black, but I didn’t want to be *that* maudlin...
***
I want to conclude by saying something meaningful and optimistic. No matter how hard I try, I can’t sum up the 2003 NLDS better than the laconic Jefferson of Skaldheim did.
We should take heart, though, those of us who are suffering from bad hangovers and the taste of ashes in our mouths. The Giants could have just folded completely yesterday. They didn't. They accepted the challenge, and they fought back valiantly. They went out with a bang, and a thud, and a cloud of dust, and with visions of glory in everyone's minds, even if it only lasted about three seconds. In the end, it wasn't enough.
But the tale of this game will be told to our children, and our children's children, of how these Giants could play so badly, with both hands wrapped around their throats, and how somehow, despite all their failures...they damn near won anyway.
My tortured baseball soul can’t take this anymore. Our beloved Giants teased us with a great season and failed to reach the great baseball Promiseland. Again.
This year was particularly difficult because of the roller coaster of emotions associated with the NLDS. Anxiety, nervousness, anger, frustration, joy, relief, despondency, humiliation; and all that was just the last hour of game 3.
There is no joy in the Fog City, there is no joy in my corner of LA, the wire-to-wire division champs have been eliminated.
Westwood Blues Interactive
1) Which NLDS moment was the most frustrating?
a) JT Snow getting thrown out at home.
b) Sidney Ponson unable to hold a lead.
c) SF going 2 for 2,874,495 with RISP in game 3.
d) Watching Jose Cruz, Jr in the field.
e) Watching Jose Cruz, Jr. in the batter’s box.
f) Another F-rod postseason meltdown.
g) Pudge’s game winning hit.
h) Cabrera’s game winning hit.
i) Derek Lee scoring from first on a single.
j) Listening to Rick Sutcliffe.
k) Grissom getting thrown out at third.
l) Other, please specify.
2) How are you planning on killing yourself?
a) A fifth of vodka, a bottle of Jack, a pint of yeager, a Long Island, an Irish car bomb, and a dozen rapid fire sake bombs.
b) Strapping yourself to a chair and watching video of all of Neifi Perez’s ABs. Let nature take its course.
c) Donning a red bandana and taking a midnight stroll through McCarthur Park, flashing gang signals at passerbys.
d) Walking around the Dodger Stadium parking lot with a Giants hat. (sorry)
e) Other, please specify
3) Send in your ranting, bitter e-mails! Here is one I got from frustrated Giants fan Jeff, BEFORE the two games in South Florida.
It's deja vu x 2....a combination of '97 and '00. I guarantee we lose both games in Florida. We will NEVER, EVER, NEVER win the WS. Not in my lifetime or anyone else's.
When they announced Benard would be having surgery and unavailable for the postseason, I actually had hope for us.
"This....This is a truly a sign from God" I said. Wrong again. The only question now is
just how painful the G Men will make it for us. I forsee excrutiating pain. Think final week of the '93 season....or game 7 of the NLCS in '87.
And to add insult to injury the Niners are pathetic and the Warriors are the Warriors. How do the Sharks look? Is this what we've been reduced to? HOCKEY??!!! God help us.
Flashbacks Redux
Painful flashbacks? Recipe for 2003 NLDS Games 3 and 4: Take a cup of 2002 WS Game 6, a teaspoon of 2000 NLDS Game 2, a cup of 1997 NLDS Game 1, a cup of 1997 NLDS Game 2, and a dash of 1908 one game playoff. Mix thoroughly. Lastly, and most importantly, add one enormous, steaming pile of shit. Serves 25.
This series was so similar to the 1997 NLDS its scary. Late inning magic from the Fish and bullpen implosions by the Giants; Miguel Cabrera is the new Devon White.
Felix Rodriguez has morphed into a walking can of gas in two of the Giants most recent torturing post season losses in recent memory. Let’s make it three.
Jose Cruz really outdid himself this time. Cruz decided to accomplish the ultimate painful flashback trifecta in this series. Hitting like Reggie Sanders, fielding like Candy Maldonado and Fred Snodgrass, and late inning dramatics like Fred Merkle. It takes true talent to not only relive recent Giants post season misery, but to also relive a Giants post season debacle of 95 fucking years ago.
Marquis Grissom wasn’t content with just reliving previous Giants post season failures. From his extensive menu of painful Atlanta Braves post season flashbacks, Grissom decided to channel the baserunning prowess of Lonnie Smith. You do not steal third on Pudge. Ever.
JT Snow proved the theory that lefties are indeed more creative than righties. In their post season history, the Giants have never been eliminated on a play at home. Snow created a brand new post season disaster that we undoubtedly relive again in future Octobers. Congrats, you lefty trailblazer.
Game 3 and 4 Random Thoughts
Question for Sutcliffe: Lenny Fucking Harris is considered a late season “acquisition?” Well technically yes, but that’s like saying the bubonic plague was a 14th century European acquisition…
***
If the Giants were to construct a statue of any current Giant, I would’ve guessed they’d salute Barry Bonds. I was wrong. Unfortunately, Rich Aurilia’s bronze likeness didn’t bother to leave the batter’s box in Game 4 in the eighth inning. Run to first, you lazy bum!
***
Ponson trade revisited – when SF acquired Sid, I said one of the things I didn’t like about the trade was that Ponson would only make between 1 and 4 meaningful starts for the Giants. Well, he made one start and he couldn’t hold a lead. Ugh…Hindsight is 20/20 of course, and at the time I did support the trade, but ugh. Just to twist the Aruban knife a little deeper, Kurt Ainsworth will undoubtedly win 15 games next year...
***
The Giants have been eliminated and the Cubs and the Red Sox are still alive...
***
Not starting Schmidt in Game 4 was absolutely the right call. Pitchers not named Curt Schilling do not have a good track record pitching on short rest in the playoffs... Unfortunately, Sugar Ray Williams just didn’t have it the second time through the lineup, much to the dismay of Giants fans and the visitor’s bench at Pro Player Stadium...
***
Its unfair to blame the Giants losses on any one person. Everyone, save Fonzie, Barry, Jason, Jeffrey Hammonds, and Matt Herges, played like shit...
***
On the bright side – Fonzie’s uber clutchness the second half of the season and in the playoffs make me think he’s primed for a huge bounce back year in 2004...
***
Baseball base running pet peeve #1 – the shortest distance between two points is a straight line. A runner rounding third should keep this in mind. Snow took way too big a turn at third base. Ideally, you should hit the inside of the bag and do your best to run as straight as possible down the line to home. His big turn coupled with the fact that he need to slide to the front side of home plate cost him. The fact that Snow is slower than Rich Garces didn’t help matters either...
***
Carrying 12 pitchers for a 5 game series is not a good idea. The Giants didn’t need two lefties out of the bullpen, as the Marlins are a predominantly right handed team. It turns out they did need a pinch runner extraordinaire. Eric Young would’ve scored on Hammonds’ single...
***
MLB should institute a rule that expansion teams should suck for at least 15-20 years before they can win a championship. It just doesn’t seem right that generic teams like the Marlins and the sixteenandahalfbacks can fly a World Championship banner, while teams with richer history, better fans, longer suffering fans, and a longer standing place in the community continue their respective World Series droughts. I know fans in Chicago, Cleveland, Seattle, and Boston agree with me.
***
As the Southpaw points out, the Giants failed to hit a HR in the four game series. This is yet another reason SF needs to sign a slugger in the offseason...
***
This site will change its name back to Westwood Blues once the requisite two week mourning period for post season tank jobs has expired. I thought about changing the background to black, but I didn’t want to be *that* maudlin...
***
I want to conclude by saying something meaningful and optimistic. No matter how hard I try, I can’t sum up the 2003 NLDS better than the laconic Jefferson of Skaldheim did.
We should take heart, though, those of us who are suffering from bad hangovers and the taste of ashes in our mouths. The Giants could have just folded completely yesterday. They didn't. They accepted the challenge, and they fought back valiantly. They went out with a bang, and a thud, and a cloud of dust, and with visions of glory in everyone's minds, even if it only lasted about three seconds. In the end, it wasn't enough.
But the tale of this game will be told to our children, and our children's children, of how these Giants could play so badly, with both hands wrapped around their throats, and how somehow, despite all their failures...they damn near won anyway.
|